RADIO
Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta Villarta. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.
A slog of a West Coast Swing at least ended on something of a strong note Sunday, as Hideki Matsuyama's final-round 62 electrified Riviera and salvaged a "Signature Event" that was forced to overcome a Tiger Woods WD, a Jordan Spieth DQ, and a Patrick Cantlay 54-hole lead.
While most golf fans already have their eyes on the upcoming Florida Swing and hope for more compelling golf, we first take a detour south of the border to the Mexico Open at Vidanta Villarta, an event that's still in its infancy that's struggled to gain a foothold in drawing golf's best players.
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta
Talk about changing gears. We go from a star-studded "Signature Event" at legendary Riviera, to a Mexico Open event that's set for just the third edition in its short history and is scrambling to fill out its entrant list with viable Tour pros. What a difference a week makes...
Needless to say, this event marks a fairly big departure from the types of tournaments we've grown accustomed to over the past several weeks, as we've had decades of course history to draw from in recent events, yet have just a minuscule two-year sample size for Vidanta Villarta.
You can at least say that this tournament has been predictable, as Jon Rahm and Tony Finau have finished in some order of 1st and 2nd in both editions of the Mexico Open. With Rahm now off in LIV land - and Will Zalatoris a Sunday night WD - Big Tony will be the main draw this week, as he looks to defend his lone title of an otherwise-underwhelming 2023 campaign.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Vidanta Villarta
Par 71 - 7,456 Yards, Greens: Paspalum, Designed By: Greg Norman
We entered the Mexico Open two years ago with more questions than answers about this Vidanta Villarta layout. Our then-speculation that bombers with the ability to rack up birdies in bunches would thrive on this Greg Norman design has turned out to be pretty darned accurate in both editions of this event, so there's little reason to change our target model this go around.
A fairly lengthy Par-71 with generous fairways, Vidanta Villarta yielded a winning score of 17-under par to Jon Rahm in 2022 with scores kept somewhat in check by winds that gusted upwards of 30 mph at times. Tony Finau's winning score of 24-under par last year in calmer conditions confirmed that a coastal breeze is indeed the only defense for this resort layout.
I'll once again be targeting bombers off that tee that are good with long-iron approaches and can make lots of birdies. Pretty straightforward stuff.
Recent Mexico Open Winners & Scoring Info
- 2023: Tony Finau (-24)
- 2022: Jon Rahm (-17)
The Horse
Tony Finau
- Event Scoring Average: 66.00 (Two career starts)
- Notable Course History: Win (2023), 2nd ('22)
- DraftKings Price: $12,000
I wish I could give you an "edgy" pick here, but there's no getting around it, Tony Finau is the Alpha and Omega this week in Mexico. The defending champion of this event looms large among this watered-down field of competitors and what you decide to do with Finau at short odds on the betting board and a big salary on the DFS slate will likely determine the amount of success you have this week.
Arguing for a full fade is tough, as Finau has both played extremely well on this Vidanta Villarta layout - amassing a scoring average of 66 over his eight rounds here - and shown that he doesn't need to be in tip-top form to thrive here. He entered last year's edition with zero top-10 finishes in his previous five starts leading up to the win and the same can be said of his results leading into a runner-up finish in the 2022 renewal of this event.
Defending champ Tony Finau highlights field for PGA Tour's 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta https://t.co/YBOGKAYGbN pic.twitter.com/zqLXCv4Ii7
— Golfweek (@golfweek) February 17, 2024
If that sounds eerily similar it's because it is. While Finau did manage a T6 at Torrey last month, his results have been otherwise ho-hum in 2024. Despite the lack of high-end finishes, there's reason to be optimistic about Finau's title defense chances this week, as he's actually been excellent from T2G in recent outings. Including the Genesis, he's now gained a combined 13.57 strokes on Approach and 6.4 strokes OTT over his last three starts.
The Ponies
Nicolai Hojgaard
- Event Scoring Average: 69.00 (One career start)
- Notable Course History: T33 ('23)
- DraftKings Price: $10,700
The course history is admittedly a little thin for this article, but in my defense, we are talking about an event with just two editions worth of history. As the uber-talented Hojgaard continues the transition from Europe to the PGA Tour, he'll start to see some golf courses for the second time, and that includes this Vidanta Villarta layout on which he managed a T33 on debut last year.
Man, I love watching Nicolai Hojgaard hit driver. His runner-up at Torrey Pines gives him a win and two 2nds in his last five worldwide starts:
2nd
1st
T25
T7
2nd— Sean Martin (@PGATOURSMartin) January 30, 2024
The 22-year-old Dane has serious superstar potential and has already won three times on the DP World Tour. This relatively lengthy, driver friendly layout suits his profile perfectly. Hojgaard currently ranks 30th on the PGA Tour in Driving Distance while grading out seventh in this Mexico Open field in Birdies or Better Gained (L24). A near miss at Torrey Pines that resulted in a runner-up finish demonstrates the type of upside we're talking about here and a breakthrough seems to be simply a matter of time.
Stephan Jaeger
- Event Scoring Average: 68.38 (Two career starts)
- Notable Course History: T18 ('23), T15 ('22)
- DraftKings Price: $9,800
A classic "tweener" that's too good for the Korn Ferry Tour but has struggled to stick on the PGA Tour, this sort of event is the true sweet spot for Stephan Jaeger. He'll face competition that's closer to a KFT field than a PGA Tour one, as well as a layout that allows for relatively easy scoring.
Stephan Jaeger leads the Farmers by 3 shots in search of his first win on the PGA Tour. Jaeger credits his daily meditation routine as a game changer in his life & says he does it every single day. pic.twitter.com/yaVLd54m26
— Chris McKee (@mrmckee) January 27, 2024
Jaeger's results in the Mexico Open reflect the fit, as he's gone T18-T15 at Vidanta Villarta over the last two years while gaining 13.38 total strokes. He boasts plenty of firepower off the tee (27th in field Driving Distance) and has the ability to rack up birdies in bunches (third in BoB Gained). Jaeger closed out 2023 in solid form, and though he's been uneven over the first couple months of 2024, a T3 at Torrey Pines - where he gained 4.5 strokes on Approach - demonstrates what he can do when his irons are firing.
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Brandon Wu
- Event Scoring Average: 66.63 (Two career starts)
- Notable Course History: 3rd ('23), T2 ('22)
- DraftKings Price: $9,100
Outside of Tony Finau, no one has gained more total strokes in the Mexico Open than Brandon Wu. His excellence at Vidanta Villarta has resulted in a 66.63 scoring average and finishes of 3rd-T2 across the event's two renewals.
While Wu is far from a bomber off the tee, he's cracked the Vidanta code on previous trips with excellent long iron play and a white-hot putter. The Stanford alum has gained a staggering 14.4 strokes putting across his two Mexico Open starts. While there's little in his recent results to indicate another strong outing this week, Wu has previously been immune to any such limitations when visiting this golf course.
Most SG per round at Mexico Open (# rounds)
Tony Finau +4.05 (8)
Brandon Wu +3.43 (8)
Davis Riley +2.94 (4)
Cameron Champ +2.55 (8)
Ben Taylor +2.41 (4)
Patrick Rodgers +2.30 (8)
Alejandro Tosti +2.16 (4)Throwback to @FredVR_ being attacked by bees 🐝
pic.twitter.com/O9pf0lyZAP— Mark Fox (@ThePluggedLie) February 19, 2024
Cameron Champ
- Event Scoring Average: 67.50 (Two career starts)
- Notable Course History: T8 ('23), T6 ('22)
- DraftKings Price: $8,600
What could go wrong here? Cameron Champ is the epitome of a boom-or-bust golfer, as he's usually either winning golf tournaments or missing cuts altogether. Champ comes into this week's Mexico Open sporting a big doughnut hole over his four 2024 starts, a little factoid that I'd normally be pretty worried about. I don't know that it matters with him.
The strength of Champ's game is well known. He's one of the longest hitters on Tour and enters this week grading out second in the Mexico Open field in Driving Distance. That length has served him well on Vidanta Villarta's relaxed, resort-type fairways, where he's gained a combined 10.7 strokes OTT across his two Mexico Open starts.
After struggles on the course, co-leader @Cameron__Champ has been finding balance with the mental side of the game. pic.twitter.com/E1tK7CenEO
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 14, 2023
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