RADIO
Last week went much better, as the players who are supposed to be stars actually played like it, even some that we didn't expect to. As predicted in this column, Kirk Cousins went bananas, as did Kareem Hunt and A.J. Green. James White... not so much (that's what I get for trying to trust a Patriots RB). Injuries limited other sleeper candidates, but that's just the nature of the game.
In the Zeroes category, I nailed the running back position, but Marcus Mariota and Chris Hogan are two picks I'd like to have back. My sincere apologies to the fellow on Twitter who I advised to bench Hogan. If it's any consolation, I did so in two leagues. Somehow I doubt that makes you feel any better. Let's see if we can shoot for 100% now that we're three weeks deep.
In this series, I'll give you my fantasy "heroes" and "zeroes" at each position to get you ready for Week 4 of the NFL season. For my opinion on all fantasy-relevant players, you can check out how my rankings stack up against the other experts, or simply consult our RotoBaller consensus rankings.
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Week 4 Lineup Heroes
QUARTERBACK
Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals - I'll start by referring back to what I said on my podcast a couple weeks ago. I thought the lack of a running game and inferior offensive line would spell trouble for Palmer the rest of the way. Turns out it just means they can't run the ball, so will opt to sling it 48 times a game. He's thrown exactly that many passes in two of three games so far and the results are getting better each week. That said, I still don't see him as a QB1 heading into the fantasy playoffs. He's had matchups against the Cowboys and Colts the last two weeks, both of whom are in the bottom half of the league in pass defense, with Indy allowing the fourth-most yards per game. With the 49ers on tap, Palmer is again a strong starter this week. You don't need stats to back that up if you saw Jared Goff go HAM last Thursday night. So start Palmer this week and then back off when he faces the likes of Philly and Tampa the next couple of weeks.
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks - Chasing last week's stats is usually a mistake, as is trusting the Seattle offense. Inconsistent is the nicest way I could phrase their performance in the last couple of years. As much as I hesitate to put Wilson as high as No. 5 in my QB rankings, there's a good reason. First and most obviously is the matchup against the Colts (see above). Second, Wilson has the highest QB rating of his career in evening games (106.3) and that comes with a higher touchdown rate too. They're down another running back with C.J. Prosise out, so Wilson will be looking for his receivers more often rather than checking down. The big caveat here is Doug Baldwin's questionable status. If he doesn't play, well, I'm still starting Wilson. I'm just tempering my expectations a bit.
Notables Worth Mentioning: Carson Wentz, Andy Dalton, Jared Goff (2 QB leagues)
RUNNING BACKS
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals - He didn't get the benefit of coming into the season as "the guy" like Leonard Fournette or Dalvin Cook. He had to earn it and work through the stubbornness of Marvin Lewis. It appears he's done so, as he saw 18 carries last week and totaled 100 yards. If you look for more of the same and throw a heaping helping of Browns on top, it seems like the recipe for a huge week. RB1 might be overzealous (not that I've ever been accused of that) so let's say he should be a high-end RB2. Aw hell, I think he's going to be a top 10 back this week, how about that?
Robert Kelley, Washington Redskins - Yes, I'm going to use this space to talk him up again because all the other running backs in my top 20 are fairly obvious. The Chiefs allow 111.6 yards per game on the ground, while the Skins average 136.3 on the ground. That's with a combination of Samaje Perine, Mack Brown, and "Big Play" Chris Thompson toting the rock last week too. Kelley isn't elite, but he's the RB1 on a team that can gain yards in chunks. He has a healthy 4.3 Y/A average for his brief career and will get the red zone carries. To keep him out of your lineup would be a mistake.
Notables Worth Mentioning: Devonta Freeman, Jonathan Stewart, Elijah McGuire
WIDE RECEIVERS
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals - Many of the same things I already mentioned about Carson Palmer hold true for Fitz. This matchup is too tasty to ignore and Fitzgerald could be one of the few players to outproduce his top-10 fantasy finish from last week. Not a single CB from the 49ers grades out over 50 this season, according to PFF. It's going to be an early Thanksgiving feast for the red birds.
Golden Tate, Detroit Lions - But I thought you said the Vikings have a good defense and the Lions suck on the road? No, I didn't exactly say that so stop putting words in my mouth. I don't expect the Lions to win, but I do expect Tate to be successful because they will have to revert to the pass game. With Tate operating primarily out of the slot, he avoids Xavier Rhodes. Kenny Golladay is banged up and may not play, while Marvin Jones will be shadowed by Rhodes, so Matt Stafford will look to his go-to receiver early and often.
Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins - The feasting analogy employed earlier should really have been saved for this blurb. Another slot receiver makes the list for WR Heroes this week and he'll do it overseas. Landry gets one of the biggest mismatches when he faces the Saints' PJ Williams. Landry has been a target hog already and will be needed for the Dolphins to keep up with Drew Brees and company. Kenny Stills' questionable status only adds to the need for Landry to step up. I'm putting him in every cash game lineup I have this week. All one of them.
Notables Worth Mentioning: Michael Thomas, Jamison Crowder, Marqise Lee
TIGHT END
Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers - Don't get me started. I own Henry in several places and I'm just as unhappy about his goose eggs as you are. At some point, the Chargers will realize he is the future and the future is now. Antonio Gates got his TD record and won't have as many red zone passes funneled his way. Henry may fall victim to negative gamescript every so often, which is what happened last week, but his upside keeps him in the TE1 conversation. It's a risky move, as the Eagles were one of the top defenses against tight ends last season, but that trend has shifted in the early part of this season. A gimpy Melvin Gordon and potential for a shootout here gives me hope that Henry will bounce back strong again.
Cameron Brate, New York Giants - The trend of tight ends torturing the Giants' defense continued in Week 3 when Zach Ertz caught eight balls and reached the end zone. Brate hasn't made much of an impact just yet, but O.J. Howard has been almost non-existent with one catch in each of his two games. Brate has as good a chance as any TE outside the top-five to match Odell Beckham in a celebration dance throwdown. Not that anything can top last week's "celebration" that I'm going to call Atomic Dog. That was a good one.
Notables Worth Mentioning: Jesse James, Austin Hooper
Week 4 Lineup Zeroes
QUARTERBACKS
Eli Manning, New York Giants - Nope, not buying it. Manning finally posted big numbers went the team admitted it has no hope of running the ball or controlling time of possession. Tampa let Case Keenum throw for 369 yards and three TD last week, making them the second-worst pass defense in terms of yards per game. So what will happen this week? The exact opposite. Tampa's young defense played great at home in Week 2 and throughout the second half last year, limiting teams to just over 10 points and 184 passing yards per game in their last four home contests of 2016. They'll get back to business and sit back on Manning's deep balls because there's really no need to respect the run. I'm keeping him on the bench this week.
Brian Hoyer, San Francisco 49ers - Kyle Shanahan's offense finally clicked in Week 3. That doesn't necessarily mean it will carry over. Again, chasing last week's high fantasy point totals isn't a good idea. Arizona's pass coverage has never been a weakness and they've held their last two opponents under 200 yards passing. I like Hoyer as a streaming option in certain matchups and he's startable in two-QB leagues, but don't confuse his ceiling, which we saw last week, with his typical performance.
Notables Worth Mentioning: Alex Smith, Blake Bortles, Jay Cutler
RUNNING BACKS
Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints - The Dolphins may not be one of the premiere defensive units in the league, but if there's one thing they can do, it's stop the run. Ndamukong Suh is earning his paycheck so far this year. They've only played two games, but they're holding teams to 3.1 yards per carry so far and that included Melvin Gordon in Week 2. Ingram just won't ever get enough volume to make him more than a PPR flex play other than in choice matchups. He's yet to score a TD and Alvin Kamara is proving that he's able to do everything Ingram does... maybe even better.
Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions - Sure, you can be encouraged about his usage if you think 18 carries makes for a great fantasy day. The new narrative that the Lions are "committed to the run" is a bit misleading. They've executed 78 run plays compared to 107 pass plays this year and Abdullah is averaging a hair over 15 carries and three targets per game. Sounds like a TD-dependent flex play to me. Minnesota has been one of the stiffest against the run and the Lions simply don't perform as well either on the road or against good teams. Abdullah has all the makings of a dud for me this week.
Notables Worth Mentioning: Marshawn Lynch, Javorius Allen, Jacquizz Rodgers
WIDE RECEIVERS
Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders - I'll start by saying Cooper has been one of the most disappointing players for me so far this season. Not that he's been terrible, well, aside from all the dropped passes. Week 1 produced fantasy points because he scored, but that was after being force-fed the ball in the red zone. He only caught five of 13 targets that week and has a 43.5% catch rate this season. I thought he would elevate his game to the next level in his third season, but it appears the mental part hasn't caught up to the physical just yet. He'll have a tough time against Denver's secondary, but that might just make him a nice buy-low candidate after this Sunday.
Jermaine Kearse, New York Jets - You could make an argument for Robby Anderson here too, but Kearse is probably starting in more fantasy leagues these days which would make him more of a bust. Kearse had a strong showing each of the first two weeks with his new team, but his targets dropped to three against the Dolphins. He gets the tough tandem of A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey this week, so he might work his way out of the flex conversation in your league.
Notables Worth Mentioning: Adam Thielen, Kenny Britt, Pierre Garcon
TIGHT END
Evan Engram, New York Giants - At risk of sounding repetitive, let me reaffirm the fact that Tampa's defense is better than it appeared last week. The one thing they've done right in both their win and loss so far is limit the tight end to a total of seven catches for 46 yards on the opposing side. Engram has looked like a great draft pick, but he'll be at the mercy of an uneven offense and interception-prone QB all season. Don't roll the dice this week, pickup his opponent Cam Brate instead if you stream the position.
Notables Worth Mentioning: Jack Doyle, Jason Witten
