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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Friday, June 16, 2023. Use Juan Carlos Blanco's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sportsbooks.
We're primed for what is traditionally one of the biggest weeknights of the MLB weekday calendar, and as customary, we have no shortage of intriguing matchups from both the pitching and hitting side in terms of looking over prop bet opportunities.
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I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Friday, June 16, 2023, in this article. I feel there are more appealing hitter scenarios than those for pitchers tonight, so I'm honing in on a trio of props involving batters and a pair for pitchers, at eye-catching prices. Good luck Rotoballers!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Jared Shuster OVER 4.5 strikeouts (+120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Shuster hasn't flashed anywhere the same caliber of swing-and-miss stuff that he displayed in the lower levels of the minors since first hitting the Triple-A Level in 2022, but he still seemingly possesses the ability to serve as a slightly above-average strikeout producer, especially in favorable matchups.
The young lefty has recorded at least five strikeouts in two of his first seven big-league starts, and Friday, he draws a matchup ripe for one of his more prolific nights in that regard. The opposing Rockies have had significant trouble making contact against left-handed pitching, striking out at a 30.3 percent clip over 320 plate appearances against that handedness in the last month.
Shuster has a 7.0 K/9 over his first 20.2 home frames and has gone at least five innings in five straight starts. With Colorado's aforementioned NL-high strikeout rate versus lefties in the last month, Shuster has a solid chance of getting to at least 5 Ks at a great price.
Zac Gallen UNDER 4.5 strikeouts (+124 FanDuel Sportsbook)
We go from a pitcher not quite known for his ability to miss bats to one that's been much more impressive in that regard in Gallen. However, I predict the roles to be reversed Friday, and Gallen to actually have a chance of registering four strikeouts or fewer. There's naturally risk involved, but that's reflected in the very appealing price.
That prognosis has to do with both matchup and recent performance. The right-hander has a modest 7.7 K/9 across his last five starts after posting a 10.8 figure in his first eight trips to the mound. Gallen has three- and two-strikeout tallies in two of the games in the latter span, and the opposing Guardians could make life difficult in that regard again Friday.
Cleveland has been one of the toughest teams to strike out all season, with the Guardians sporting an MLB-low 17.7 percent strikeout rate overall in the last month, including a co-MLB-low 18.8 percent figure against righties specifically. Current Cleveland bats have struck out against Gallen just six times in 32 career encounters as well, further supporting the notion having a fighting chance of hitting.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Shohei Ohtani OVER 0.5 Total RBI (+135 BetMGM Sportsbook)
Ohtani continues to knock the cover off the ball, and Friday, he draws a matchup versus a starting pitcher in Brady Singer that's struggled against left-handed hitters all season. Ohtani enters the favorable scenario with a 12-game hitting streak during which he's hit .489 and compiled 16 RBI on the strength of a .520 average with men on base.
Singer has allowed a .301 average and 22 RBI to left-handed hitters, and he's yielded .267 and .266 averages with men on base and men in scoring position, respectively. The Angels also have a robust 5.4-run projected total as of Friday morning, and when Singer exits, Ohtani will also face a Kansas City relief corps that's pitched to a 5.59 ERA and yielded 29 earned runs overall to left-handed hitters in the last month.
Shohei Ohtani is putting up career-best numbers at the plate 🦄@Xavier_Scruggs highlights how the @Angels superstar crushes every pitch type on his way to leading the AL in homers.#MLBTonight | #GoHalos pic.twitter.com/FFJ6ruuFFy
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) June 16, 2023
Bryce Harper OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+135 BetMGM Sportsbook)
Those feeling particularly adventurous can jump on a To Hit A HR prop for Harper, which pays out at a +550 rate. However, I'll recommend a higher probability bet that can cash even if the slugger doesn't leave the yard for a long overdue homer in this total bases wager.
Harper has accumulated 60 total bases in 38 games already despite hitting just three homers thus far, and he checks into Friday in the midst of a solid stretch where he's posted a .289 average and .382 on-base percentage over the last 12 games. Harper is also in a favorable matchup against southpaw JP Sears, who's given up a .333 average, including a massive .391 figure at home, to the 54 left-handed batters he's faced.
While Harper has atypically struggled thus far in same-handed matchups this season in a small sample, he's also been hamstrung by an unusually low .250 BABIP. It's worth noting he knocked 14 of his 30 hits against lefties last season for extra bases and has 166 XBH overall out of 407 total versus the handedness in his career, a clip of over 40 percent. Sears is also having trouble keeping the ball in the park, having pitched to a 1.8 HR/9.
Then, whenever Sears exits, Harper will face an A's relief corps that's pitched to a .291 BAA and .364 wOBA allowed versus lefty bats thus far in June.
Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betts will eventually face southpaw Sean Manaea after opening pitcher John Brebbia on Friday, and that's a matchup he's absolutely dominated over the years. The perennial All-Star has knocked Manaea around for a .385 average, 1.390 OPS, seven extra-base hits and eight RBI in 28 career encounters.
That's par for the course against southpaws for Betts, who owns a .292 average, 1.079 OPS and .448 wOBA against that handedness, including figures of .379, 1.282 and .528 in those respective categories when facing southpaws at home. In turn, Manaea has allowed a .385 wOBA and 1.4 HR/9 against right-handed hitters on the road.
Betts typically hits out of the favorable leadoff spot as well, which could garner him an extra plate appearance, and has a robust resume of 69 hits, 43 RBI and 53 runs. With no shortage of talent surrounding him in the lineup and the Dodgers sporting a solid 4.9-run projected total, this is a prop worth considering.
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