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Josh's top NCAA Tournament betting picks and best bets for today's college basketball games on 3/16/23. His free picks for today's March Madness games.
The big day is finally here! After 128 days, it’s officially time to dance with a full NCAA tournament field set. It’s always interesting to follow the progression of a college basketball season. Starting in November and running through early March, teams only play 30-something games. A majority of those are in-conference where teams play about 20 conference games against each other. This is all a build-up for the conference tournaments which ultimately is the buildup to the NCAA Tournament.
Running through some games in the first round, there is a lot to look at. Favorites taking care of business, upset potential, and over/unders are the beautiful aspects of what makes the NCAA Tournament sport's most chaotic event. A lot of these matchups are unfamiliar which present interesting and new elements for each team. The more casual fans also get introduced to high-profile mid-major studs that we college basketball sickos have been raving about for months (Looking at you Jordan Brown and Drew Pember).
In this article, you can find some of my favorite picks for day one of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, March 16th, 2023. Make sure to also check out our other NCAA/NIT Tournament articles as we will be having picks and DFS suggestions running throughout the Tournament. You can access all of our latest sports betting promos, and sign up for a sportsbook here. Find me on Twitter @Jwiesel13.
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Maryland Terrapins (8) vs West Virginia Mountaineers (9)
12:15 PM ET (CBS)
Despite being one seed ahead, Maryland enters this game as a small 2.5-point underdog. The Terps had a major bounce-back season, finishing with a 21-12 record through the conference tournaments. Last season they were 15-17. They also were 11-9 in Big Ten play which was good enough to finish fifth in the conference. This was a nice improvement from going 7-13 in conference play the year prior. First-year head coach Kevin Willard has done a great job and will continue trying to turn Maryland into a consistent winner.
Bob Huggins has his West Virginia squad back in the NCAA Tournament. After a down year in 2021-22, the Mountaineers will be making their 11th NCAA appearance under Huggins. In the extremely tough Big 12 conference, WV blew out Texas Tech in the first round before getting blown out by Kansas in the Big 12 quarterfinals.
This game will be highlighted by two senior guards in each team’s respective backcourts.
Maryland senior point guard Jahmir Young spent three seasons playing for the University of North Carolina at Charlotte before transferring to Maryland. The dynamic point guard averaged 16 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and one steal this season. His play was good enough to earn him All-Big Ten second-team honors.
Fifth-year senior Erik Stevenson is playing for his fourth school in four years. Stevenson played two years at Wichita State then transferred to Washington then transferred to South Carolina and was a Mountaineer this season. Stevenson’s 15.5 points and 2.3 three-pointers per game earned him All-Big 12 third-team honors.
I see a lot of similarities between these teams. When it comes to supporting players, Maryland has senior forward Donta Scott and senior guard Hakim Hart to complement Young. Senior transfer Tre Mitchell controls the middle for West Virginia while also scoring 11 points per game.
In a game that could come down to the last few possessions, I want Jahmir Young on my side making the decisions. The NCAA Tournament starts out with a mini upset and Maryland advances to the round of 32.
The Pick: Maryland ML (+110 DK)
Missouri Tigers (7) vs Utah State Aggies (10)
1:40 PM ET (TNT)
Missouri and Utah State were two of the best offenses in college basketball this season. Kenpom has Missouri ninth and the Aggies 12th in adjusted offensive efficiency. When it comes to points per game, Missouri was 23rd nationally with 79.5 per game. Utah State trailed only nine spots behind, putting up 78.6 themselves.
Do you like three-point shooting? Well, you’re in luck because both these teams were top 25 in threes made per game. Missouri attempted the 25th most threes per game, their opponent placed 80th.
Utah State was fifth in three-point percentage, and Missouri was tied for 32nd. Utah State was also fourth in true shooting percentage and 18th in offensive rating. The Tigers finished the season tied for 17th in true shooting and tied for 19th in offensive rating.
As many stats as I can throw out, the players on the floor are the ones that need to make it happen.
Utah State has five double-digit scorers in Steven Ashworth, Taylor Funk, Max Shulga, Daniel Akin, and Sean Bairstow. I wanted to make sure to mention those five because Utah State plays great ball as a cohesive unit. Ashworth is the leading scorer at 16 points per game, but it’ll take a team effort to hit this total. This team was in the top ten for assists per game.
Missouri finished 24-9 and 11-7 in the SEC this season. It was the most games they’ve won in a season and tied for the most conference wins in a season since joining in 2012-13. A lot of it is credited to senior leader Kobe Brown who averaged 15.8 points and 6.3 rebounds, leading the Tigers in both categories. Junior transfer guard D’moi Hodge was second in scoring with nearly 15 points and three three-pointers per game. These two could have big scoring games as Missouri looks for their first NCAA Tournament win since 2013.
The last aspect of this game to look at is Missouri’s ability to take the ball away. Mizzou was third in the country in steals per game. Utah State turned the ball over 11.7 times per game, tied in the high 150’s. Missouri can create some easy scoring opportunities off turnovers which would only help the over.
Fun game, no clue who comes out on top, root for points.
The Pick: Over 155.5 (-110 DK)
Duke Blue Devils (5) vs Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (12)
7:10 PM ET (CBS)
I have a feeling this pick won’t be super popular as Oral Roberts is a trendy team many will pick to advance in their brackets, let alone cover the six. Not buying into the upset hype, the Blue Devils have won nine in a row and 12 of their last 14 games.
What was impressive about Duke’s ACC Tournament win is that they showed they can win two different types of games. Against the Miami Hurricanes in the semifinals, Duke won a higher scoring 85-78 game. Recognizing mismatches, they got themselves to the foul line 25 times, knocking down 21 of them. The championship game saw them defeat Virginia 59-49 in a slowed-down slugfest. Two different games, and two different wins.
Oral Roberts relies heavily on senior guard Max Abmas. If Abmas’s name sounds familiar, it’s because he’s been on this stage before. He had 29 points and five three-pointers back in the 2021 NCAA Tournament when Oral Roberts defeated the second-seeded Ohio State Buckeyes in the first round. Oral would go on to beat Florida before losing a close game to Arkansas in the sweet 16. Kevin Obanor was a dynamic duo with Abmas but left after that run and has spent the last two seasons at Texas Tech.
Duly noting Abmas’s talent, I like this Duke squad to find a way to work around him. He could get his 25-30 points but how will his supporting cast step up is the major question. According to Kenpom, Duke has the 20th-best adjusted defensive efficiency of all the teams in the tournament. It’s not great but it is higher than teams like Arizona, Marquette, and Gonzaga. Oral Roberts ranks 47th. The Golden Eagles check in 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and Duke slots in at 33rd.
Oral Roberts likes to get out running and scoring the basketball. Duke has shown an ability to put up points like the 96 they dropped on Pittsburgh in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals.
This Duke team has been clicking and I expect point guard Jeremy Roach and star freshman Kyle Filipowski to win and cover this game. The Blue Devils avoid a popular upset pick and look ahead to their round of 32 game on Saturday.
The Pick: Duke -5.5 (-110 DK)
Tennessee Volunteers (4) vs Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (13)
9:40 PM ET (CBS)
Taking the points here because of one guy and his name is Jordan Brown. The six-foot-eleven senior beast averaged 19.4 points and 8.7 rebounds this season, leading Louisiana to its first NCAA Tournament berth since 2014. He ended the season with double-doubles in five of his last six games. This included a 13-point, 16-rebound performance over South Alabama in the Sun Belt title game. Louisiana will likely need more than 13 from their best player in this game but he’s the type of guy that could present problems for Tennessee.
The Volunteers house their own two big men in seven-foot Uros Plavsic and six-foot-eleven Jonas Aidoo. Aidoo plays 18 minutes per game while Plavsic plays around 13. Both will have their hands full with Brown who averaged 7.1 free throw attempts per game.
If Brown is getting doubled, he can look for his trusty guard Greg Williams. The powerful guard was an All-Sun Bet second-team selection, averaging 13 points. Sophomore guard Themus Fulks paces the Cajuns' offense with nearly six assists per game.
Tennessee got bit by the injury bug when they lost guard Zakai Zeigler for the season on February 28th. Many are predicting Ziegler’s absence won’t matter in this game, but I wouldn’t be too sure.
The Vols gave up the third-fewest points per game this season but have given up 70+ in two of the three games since Zeigler went down. Louisiana averaged almost 80 points per game this season and was one of the most efficient offenses in the country. Even if this game slows down, I don’t see Tennessee having enough offense to cover this number.
Take the points and hopefully, you’ll be joining me in the Jordan Brown fan club after the game.
The Pick: Ragin’ Cajuns +11.5 (-110 DK)
Texas A&M Aggies (7) vs Penn State Nittany Lions (10)
9:55 PM ET (TBS)
Two of the slowest teams in the country matchup for what could be the most intense game of the first round. Texas A&M probably feels slighted with their seeding going into this game as they finished second in the SEC and made the SEC tournament championship game. Penn State got into the Big Ten tournament as the tenth seed and made a run all the way to the championship game. Texas A&M would lose to Alabama and Penn State would lose to Purdue, each conference's respective number-one seeds.
Taking an under with a team like Penn State is a bit uncomfortable. Of all NCAA Tournament teams, only Oral Roberts made more threes per game. Despite all the threes, Penn State only scored 72.3 points per game which were in the 160s nationally. Texas A&M doesn’t by any means put caution tape around the three-point line, but they did rank in the top 100 in opponent three-point percentage.
When it comes to possessions per game, Texas A&M averaged around 68.9 per game which ranked 237th. Penn State had even fewer with 66.6 per game, 330th. Penn State averaged 57 field goal attempts per game (195th), and Texas A&M attempted 55.1 shots (290th). The Aggies also were 295th in three-point attempts per game and 314th in three-point makes per game.
As always, Texas A&M could pop as they did in an 87-75 win over Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament semifinals. It’s important to remember they shot 10/19 (53%) from three which is unlikely to repeat itself.
There have been plenty of instances this season where the Nittany Lions have struggled to score. Seen most recently in their 67-65 loss to Purdue where they shot just 7/30 from deep.
I see this game as a low-scoring chess match where each team values its possessions. Either one of these teams can make a run and it’s a shame one must go home so early.
The Pick: Under 135 (-110 DK)
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