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Potential running back sleepers and busts for 2024 fantasy football drafts. Joey Pollizze details potential sleepers and busts at the position for 2024 fantasy drafts.
It's becoming harder and harder to trust running backs in fantasy football. Very few have a workhorse role anymore, and most get hurt as well. Last season, first-round fantasy running backs like Austin Ekeler, Bijan Robinson, and Nick Chubb all fell short of their predraft ADP.
Even second-round running backs like Tony Pollard and Josh Jacobs didn't have the year fantasy managers thought they would have. As a result, we are seeing fewer running backs going in the first round of drafts this season. Only Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Robinson, and Jahmyr Gibbs have an ADP inside the top 13 heading into 2024.
With fantasy drafts shortly approaching, now is the perfect time to evaluate the running back position. Here are the biggest sleepers, busts, and undervalued running backs heading into the 2024-2025 fantasy football season.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
2024 Fantasy Football Running Back Sleepers
Zack Moss - Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals running back Zack Moss deserves more love in fantasy this season. With Joe Mixon being traded to the Houston Texans this offseason, Moss should immediately fill that role left by Mixon. The 26-year-old signed a two-year deal with the Bengals in free agency and should step in as the team's RB1 in 2024.
However, for some reason, fantasy managers don't seem to trust him heading into the year. He has a 95.2 ADP on Sleeper and is going around the RB30 in most drafts. That seems way too low for a running back who is expected to see most of the goal-line work on a top-10 offense in the NFL.
Moss also showed some great things as a starter with the Indianapolis Colts in 2023. In four starts without Jonathan Taylor, the former third-round pick ran for 445 yards and three touchdowns while catching eight passes for 72 yards and one touchdown. That four-game stretch led to the 26-year-old averaging 21.4 PPR fantasy points during that span. As a result, he is definitely a sleeper option at the position in 2024.
When Zack Moss got 15 or more rushing attempts last SZN (he did in 6 games) he averaged: ⬇️👀
- 92.2 rushing yards per game
- 4.33 Y/C on 126 attempts
- .66 TDs per gameI love this signing by the Bengals. Win/Win situation.
- Bengals get a good RB that doesn’t need to be… pic.twitter.com/MQoRbjjBbV
— PPRFantasyTips (@PPRFantasyTips) June 2, 2024
Of course, Chase Brown will see his fair share of opportunities. But all signs point to Moss leading this Cincinnati backfield this season. He should lead the team in carries, making him a great value pick in all fantasy formats. With Mixon's 309 vacated running back touches leaving this offense, look for the former Colts running back to see plenty of chances in 2024.
Ezekiel Elliott - Dallas Cowboys
After spending the 2023 season with the New England Patriots, running back Ezekiel Elliott finds himself back with the Dallas Cowboys for the 2024 campaign. Dallas signed Elliott to a one-year deal this offseason, and the veteran is expected to be heavily involved.
The Cowboys let Tony Pollard walk in free agency and didn't draft a running back in the 2024 NFL Draft. As a result, the team will roll with Elliott and Rico Dowdle this upcoming season. While Dowdle could see somewhere between 40% to 50% of Dallas' offensive snaps every week, the veteran's touchdown upside should make him a solid weekly flex play.
Last season, the Cowboys scored the most points in the NFL, meaning Elliott should see plenty of touchdown opportunities in 2024. The three-time Pro Bowler has scored at least 10 rushing touchdowns in three of his past four years in Dallas (2019, 2021, and 2022) and that shouldn't stop this season.
Fantasy managers shouldn't expect the veteran to be a workhorse back -- like they are used to seeing him in Dallas. Dowdle will be involved in both the running and passing game, especially after head coach Mike McCarthy said this backfield will be a committee. However, Elliott will no doubt be the team's goal-line back, a role that should help him finish with solid flex numbers. At his 118.5 ADP, he is a sleeper option in 2024 because of his potential to finish with 10-plus touchdowns.
2024 Fantasy Football Undervalued Running Backs
Alvin Kamara - New Orleans Saints
When running backs hit a certain age, their production starts to drop off. With New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara turning 29 years old, most fantasy managers are expecting the veteran to take a huge step back. Despite finishing as the RB11 in PPR formats last year, Kamara finds himself going as the RB17 with an ADP of 53.7 on Sleeper in 2024.
It's understandable why the veteran back is going where he is in drafts. He is on the older side, second-year back Kendre Miller should be more involved in 2024, and he only averaged just 3.9 yards per carry last season. However, Kamara is extremely undervalued heading into the fantasy season.
75 receptions in 13 games for Alvin Kamara last season
5.8 per game
Across 17 games that would have been 98.6
#3 in Fantasy PPG (17.9) in 2023
2024 ADP: RB17
🤔 does this math, math? pic.twitter.com/LlaL27joqG
— Skrip (@P2WFantasy) July 17, 2024
For starters, the 29-year-old has finished as a top-12 back in PPR formats in six of his seven NFL seasons -- thanks to his high usage in the passing game. Last season, Kamara saw 86 targets and totaled 75 catches for 466 yards and one touchdown. That high target share shouldn't stop in 2024, either, as Derek Carr targets running backs at a high rate out of the backfield. According to NBC Sports and Fantasy Points Data, 38% of Carr's passes to backs last year were first-read targets.
So, expect Kamara to be heavily involved in the passing game again. Even at his age, the 29-year-old can still be a strong RB2 option for fantasy managers. He'll see over 75 targets, which makes him an undervalued option in PPR formats entering the year.
Zamir White - Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders running back Zamir White hasn't seen many opportunities since being drafted in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. He sat behind Josh Jacobs for most of his first two years in the league before drawing his first career start in Week 15 of the 2023 season. With Jacobs nursing a calf injury, White stepped in and showed his potential right away.
In that Week 15 game against the Los Angeles Chargers, White ran 17 times for 69 yards and one touchdown. Jacobs then missed the next three games and the former Georgia product drew three more starts to end the year. Over those final three weeks, the 24-year-old saw 73 touches while totaling at least 100 yards from scrimmage in each of those contests.
Zamir White's vision was on point vs. the Chiefs, and you see it on the last two runs that ended the game.
On the 1st run, he presses the line, holding the LB with his eyes before hitting the C gap behind Johnson for 43.
2nd run, White shows patience and finds the hole backside… pic.twitter.com/CvstOJURxb
— Marcus Johnson (@TheMarcJohnNFL) December 27, 2023
Now, White should be in line to start the whole year for the Raiders after Jacobs left in free agency. Given the way he looked in that role last year, he is a steal at his 83.7 ADP. He averaged 15.2 PPR fantasy points in those final four games and there's a strong chance he sees over 250 touches in 2024. He doesn't face much competition for touches, and Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce wants to run the ball a lot.
White should easily lead this backfield, as Alexander Mattison and sixth-round rookie Dylan Laube are the only notable backs on the roster. As a result, take a chance on the 24-year-old in fantasy this year, especially at his RB26 price tag because a breakout campaign could be in store.
2024 Fantasy Football Running Back Bust
D'Andre Swift - Chicago Bears
For the third time in three years, running back D'Andre Swift finds himself on a new team. Swift had a career year with the Philadelphia Eagles last year, running for 1,049 yards and finishing as the RB20 in PPR formats. However, the 25-year-old now goes to a worse offense with a worse offensive line.
That's why Swift is a bust candidate entering the 2024 fantasy season. The Bears offense will surely go through some struggles this year with a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams under center, which will hurt the running back's fantasy value. On top of that, Chicago has two other backs on its roster who could see some opportunities.
Khalil Herbert has dealt with some injuries over the past two years, but when healthy, he has been an efficient runner. He has averaged 5.2 yards per carry since 2022 while totaling at least 600 rush yards in each of the last two seasons. Roschon Johnson also showed some nice things in his rookie year, totaling 561 yards from scrimmage. While Swift will lead this backfield in 2024, don't be surprised if Herbert and Johnson severely eat into his workload.
That's why Swift is an avoid at his RB21 price tag. He has failed to finish as the top-17 back in three of his four NFL seasons and doesn't have a high fantasy ceiling in this Bears offense. So, it might be tough to rely on him as your RB2 in fantasy in 2024. Instead of taking the 25-year-old at his 67.6 ADP, it might make sense to wait 2-3 more rounds and take White or Moss -- two backs who should see plenty of touches this season.
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