Booms and Busts - Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 16 Lineups (2025)

December 21, 2025

Dave's fantasy football start 'em and sit 'em booms and busts for Week 16 of 2025. Sneaky starts that may boom, and typical starters who will disappoint.

There are two weeks left in the fantasy football season. If you’re reading this column, hopefully you survived the injury bloodbath that was Week 15. We had numerous players go down, and those injuries certainly played a role in numerous quarterfinal showdowns.

However, the season stops for no one, and the fantasy semi-finals are here. You are just one win away from securing a berth in your league’s title game. That means you’ll need to examine each start/sit decision with a fine-toothed comb. If you’re having trouble navigating those waters, fret not. We’ve got you covered here with several players who can propel your team into the finals, as well as some who could have you playing in your league’s third-place game.

Make sure you’re following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football needs. Here are our boom/bust picks for Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season.

Sonic Boom of the Week

Omarion Hampton - RB, Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys

With its offensive line decimated by injuries, the Chargers have shifted toward a more run-heavy offense. Hampton has been a beneficiary of that and has at least 15 touches in two games since returning from an ankle injury.

Omarion Hampton takes it all the way to the Philadelphia 40 yard line

PHIvsLAC on ESPN/ABC
Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN App pic.twitter.com/xahSa8tcjX

— NFL (@NFL) December 9, 2025

This is a good spot for that volume to translate to fantasy production, as the Cowboys' run defense has struggled throughout the year. Dallas ranks 30th in FTN Fantasy’s defensive rushing DVOA and 28th in PFF’s run defense grade.

The Cowboys have also allowed the sixth-most PPR points to running backs this year, per Fantasy Football Today. Dallas has also been prone to allowing big plays on the ground and has allowed the fifth-most explosive rushing yards in the league per Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Hampton has also played very well this year. Among 53 running backs with 75+ attempts, Hampton ranks:

• 12th in Next Gen Stats rush yards over expected per attempt
• 12th in PFF’s elusive rating
• 14th in PFF rushing grade

He ranks higher than fellow running back Kimani Vidal in each of these metrics. So it would behoove the Chargers to continue feeding their first-round running back as opposed to Vidal in this game.

Look for Los Angeles to continue their run-heavy approach in an attempt to exploit a poor Dallas defense. That would put Hampton in line for the type of performance that could propel managers to their title game. Start him in all formats.

Other Week 16 Fantasy Football Booms

D.K. Metcalf - WR, Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions

Metcalf posted a 3-55-1 line on three targets this past Monday night against the Miami Dolphins. He would finish the week as the PPR WR22.

DK Metcalf MY GOODNESS

MIAvsPIT on ESPN/ABC
Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN App pic.twitter.com/GXEbzt3p4h

— NFL (@NFL) December 16, 2025

Pittsburgh now takes on the Detroit Lions this weekend. It’s a great spot for Metcalf to post a huge game. Detroit’s defense has been hammered with injuries, and that could mean Steelers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers has plenty of time to throw in the pocket. That would mean good things for Metcalf because Detroit has allowed the second-most PPR points per game to opposing wide receivers and allows the ninth-most passing yards per game.

This could be a high-scoring affair, plus there is also the possibility that Pittsburgh falls behind by double digits early. Both scenarios would be great game scripts for Metcalf.

Start him as a WR2 and don’t be shocked if he pops for a big week.

Rico Dowdle - RB, Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Dowdle has really cooled off since he posted several huge games earlier this year. From Weeks 5-9, Dowdle ran for 652 rushing yards, scored three rushing touchdowns, and posted three RB1 finishes. However, from Weeks 10-15, he has just 243 rushing yards, averaged only 3.2 yards per carry, and has not posted a single RB1 finish.

It’s not been all bad, as Dowdle has still posted four top 24 finishes in PPR leagues. But gamers have not gotten the league-winning running back they thought they had earlier in the year. While that’s been disappointing, this could be the week where Dowdle finally busts out of his funk.

Carolina takes on their division rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers, this weekend in a game that will go a long way in determining the NFC South champion. Carolina will likely turn to its ground attack to score a victory here. That could be problematic for Tampa Bay, as its typically stout run defense has started to break down. The Buccaneers have also allowed the eighth-most PPR points to opposing running backs this year.

Even though Chuba Hubbard has started to creep back into the picture, Dowdle has still seen at least 17 touches in eight of the last 10 games. After the Panthers got caught looking past the New Orleans Saints last week, expect head coach Dave Canales to have his team fully locked in here.

Start Dowdle as a midrange RB2 or flex who could post a surprise RB1 finish.

Darren Waller - TE, Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Waller turned back the clock this past Monday night. He posted a 7-66-2 line on eight targets and finished the week as the PPR TE3.

Tua to Waller x2

MIAvsPIT on ESPN/ABC
Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN App pic.twitter.com/p6rO8BixZn

— NFL (@NFL) December 16, 2025

Waller has scored six touchdowns in six games this year. Now, fresh off the heels of his best game of the year, Waller draws a dream matchup in the fantasy semi-finals.

The Bengals' defense has been truly horrific against opposing tight ends. Cincinnati currently ranks 30th in DVOA against the position and has allowed the most receiving touchdowns to tight ends this year. Don’t be fooled by the Bengals' effort against Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely last week. This defense does not guard tight ends well.

Miami's decision to start rookie Quinn Ewers at quarterback does complicate things quite a bit. However, he could be an upgrade compared to Tua Tagovailoa's play this season. Young quarterbacks also tend to gravitate toward tight ends as a security blanket, so there's still a scenario where Waller has a strong outing.

Gamers should consider Waller one of the top tight end streaming candidates this week. Start him as a backend TE1 and don’t be shocked if he scores multiple touchdowns again.

Landmine of the Week

Jaxson Dart - QB, New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings

Dart is fresh off a QB9 finish against the Washington Commanders. He threw for 246 passing yards, two touchdowns, and ran for 63 yards on the ground, too.

It was his sixth QB1 finish in nine starts. However, this weekend might be the right time for managers to hit the brakes. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is known for his aggressive, blitz-heavy play-calling, and it's been very effective at limiting opposing quarterbacks this year.

Minnesota has allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and has allowed the third-fewest passing touchdowns this season. The Vikings have also been stingy in terms of quarterback rushing production. Minnesota has allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards to the position, and quarterbacks have only scored one rushing touchdown against this defense all year.

If Dart can’t get going on the ground, that means most of his fantasy production is relying on his arm. That feels like a dangerous prospect when going up against a Brian Flores-coached defense. If Dart can produce on the ground, then he can still deliver a productive game for fantasy managers, but there is serious bust potential here.

If you have other options available, it’s not the worst idea to pivot off Dart.

Other Week 16 Fantasy Football Busts

Tony Pollard - RB, Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Pollard is in the middle of a major heater. Over the last two weeks, he’s run for 265 rushing yards and scored three rushing touchdowns. As a result, he’s posted back-to-back RB1 finishes.

Tony Pollard up the middle for the @Titans TD

TENvsSF on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/Sx7So783Hf

— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2025

While it’s been a nice stretch, this looks like a spot where Pollard could slow down. Kansas City’s defense has been very good at limiting opposing running backs. The Chiefs rank ninth in defensive rushing DVOA and allow the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game. Kansas City has also allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points to running backs this year.

With Patrick Mahomes sidelined due to a knee injury, we could very well be looking at a competitive game here. However, Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will likely cook up something new to throw at Titans’ rookie quarterback Cameron Ward. That would mean bad things for Pollard and the entire Tennessee offense.

Pollard could see a healthy amount of volume, but there’s no guarantee he’ll produce in this matchup. Consider other options with more upside.

Terry McLaurin - WR, Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles

McLaurin caught his third touchdown of the season last weekend against the New York Giants. He's played quite well since returning from injury, but this week could be a spot where he struggles.

Philadelphia ranks fourth in defensive passing DVOA. The Eagles have also allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points to receivers and rank second in DVOA against opposing WR1s.

The one thing that might work in McLaurin’s favor is that Washington could be trailing for the majority of this game. However, that won’t ensure fantasy production as the Eagles allow just 46.3 receiving yards per game to opposing WR1s.

This is not a great matchup for McLaurin, and gamers would be wise to leave him on their bench.

Harold Fannin Jr. - TE, Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills

Fannin saw double-digit targets for the second straight game in Week 15 and posted his second consecutive TE1 finish in PPR leagues. He has clearly emerged as a favorite target of the current Browns’ QB1, Shedeur Sanders.

That’s the good news for Fannin. The bad news is that he draws an extremely difficult matchup in Week 16.

The Buffalo Bills have been fantastic against opposing tight ends in 2025. Buffalo only allows 33.8 receiving yards per game to tight ends and has allowed the fewest PPR points to the position this year. Plus, the Bills’ defense has only given up two touchdowns to tight ends all season, which is tied for the fewest in the NFL.

While Fannin has been a fantastic play the last few weeks, this is a spot where the bottom could fall out. This is a dangerous time of year to start players in bad offenses in poor matchups. If you have another viable tight end to throw in your lineup, that might be the preferred move.

Trevor Lawrence - QB, Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

Lawrence has been playing some of the best football of his career over the last handful of games. From Weeks 11-15, he’s thrown 13 touchdowns and finished as a QB1 four times. That was capped off by an incredible performance last week when he accounted for six touchdowns (five passing and one rushing) against the New York Jets and finished as the overall QB1.

Jacksonville starting hot!

Trevor Lawrence runs it in to make it a two-score game

NYJvsJAX on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/vlrUGasdDo

— NFL (@NFL) December 14, 2025

It has been fun to watch Lawrence finally live up to his status as a former number one overall pick. However, he will face a major test this weekend.

Jacksonville takes on a Denver Broncos defense that is arguably the best in football. The Broncos rank sixth in defensive passing DVOA and allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Denver has also allowed just 14 touchdown passes, which is tied for the third-fewest in the league.

Lawrence and the Jacksonville offense have been humming, but this is an extremely difficult matchup for both. Our best comparison point for how Lawrence may perform in this game would be to see how he did against a similarly good defense.

Luckily for us, Lawrence has already played two games against the Houston Texans earlier this year. Here are Lawrence’s numbers and fantasy finishes in both those games:

Week 3: 222 passing yards, zero touchdowns, one interception, QB28 finish
Week 10: 158 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception, QB21 finish

Those are not exactly great results.

It’s probably best if gamers leave Lawrence on their bench and find a different streamer in a better matchup.

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