Fantasy Basketball Breakouts, Busts, And Locks: Houston Rockets 2023-2024 Outlook

October 17, 2023

Saleh Awwad looks at one fantasy basketball breakout, bust, and lock from the Houston Rockets for the 2023-24 NBA season.

With the NBA season right around the corner, it’s time to start breaking down NBA teams and determining what you should expect from individual players on the team this year. Today, I’ll be breaking down the Houston Rockets and giving their lock, bust, and breakout fantasy player heading into the 2023-24 season.

The Houston Rockets finished this past season with a 22-60 record, which was tied for the second-worst in the league. The team also averaged the fewest points per game in the entire conference. They entered the off-season with the most money to spend in the league by a wide margin, as well as two first-round draft picks. This led to several additions to the team, creating an entirely new look for them entering the season.

When determining a breakout player, I will include a player who has shown flashes but has yet to make a household name of themselves, until this upcoming season. When determining a fantasy bust, I will talk about a player that has an average draft position (ADP) that is too high and should be avoided in drafts. Finally, when determining a fantasy basketball lock, it is someone who will dominate for the entire season and should be targeted over any other Rockets players in fantasy drafts.

Fantasy Basketball Breakout: Jabari Smith Jr.

After a semi-disappointing rookie season, Jabari Smith Jr. is in prime position to breakout. Last year’s third-overall pick averaged 12.8 points and 7.2 rebounds on about 41/31/79 shooting splits in his first season. He looked better as the season progressed and showed flashes of his college self. 

Smith now enters his second season and is looking to improve significantly. Despite several off-season additions for Houston, Smith has the Power Forward position locked up and will get a ton of opportunity this season. The 20-year-old was drafted largely due to his ability to shoot from anywhere on the court at 6-foot-10. He shot 42% from the three-point line in his only year at Auburn and will try to get closer to that in his second year.

He is currently being drafted as the 112th overall player according to Yahoo Fantasy rankings. This is way too low in my opinion and the ceiling he could provide will significantly impact your fantasy team. Players such as De’Anthony Melton, Zach Collins, Tre Jones, Mark Williams, etc. are being drafted ahead of Smith, which should not be the case. The second-year player offers a much higher ceiling than a large portion of those being drafted ahead of him and is worth a shot late in drafts.

Fantasy Basketball Bust: Fred Van Vleet

After seven seasons as a Raptor to start his NBA career, Fred Van Vleet agreed to a three-year, $130 million deal with the Houston Rockets in the offseason. Many saw this as an overpay, but the Rockets desperately needed veteran point guard play and had to spend the money they possessed. 

Van Vleet will start at point guard for Houston and immediately be their primary ball-handler. He is entering a situation where the large majority of the team is young and developing, making VanVleet one of the few veterans who will need to mentor others. While the 29-year-old will have a high usage rate right away, he showed inconsistencies last season and was not a reliable fantasy or real-life player. During his last year in Toronto, Van Vleet averaged 19.3 points, 7.2 assists, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.8 steals per game. While these stats are overall solid, he was awful when it came to efficiency. He shot just 39.3% from the field, which was the lowest in the league from players averaging at least 11 shot attempts a game.

Van Vleet is currently being drafted as the 25th overall player according to Yahoo Fantasy rankings. There are several players of all positions with much safer floors and higher ceilings that are being drafted after him. This includes LeBron James, Lauri Markkanen, Paul George, Cade Cunningham, Bam Adebayo, and many more. Labeling VanVleet as a bust does not necessarily mean that he will have a bad season, but rather that he will not play up to his current ADP and should be going much later in drafts.

Fantasy Basketball Lock: Alperen Sengun

Sengun is heading into his third season and has an opportunity to become a fantasy monster. The third-year center out of Turkey proved that he is an all-around big man and turned a lot of heads in his second season. He averaged 14.8 points, nine rebounds, and 3.9 assists with almost one block and one steal per game. What held Sengun back from putting up better numbers was his inability to close out games, causing him to play under 29 minutes per game.

With Ime Udoka now being the new head coach of the Houston Rockets, Sengun’s playing time will more than likely increase and he will be used to his full capabilities. Sengun has proven to be able to impact the game like very few big men offensively with both his scoring and playmaking. With more weapons around him and a more efficient system, I expect a huge jump from the 21-year-old.

Sengun is currently being drafted as the 58th overall player according to Yahoo Fantasy rankings. This is behind other centers such as Nic Claxton, Walker Kessler, Jarrett Allen, and Myles Turner. While they are all great, Sengun offers a higher ceiling and has uncapped potential heading into his third season. You should be targeting the Rockets’ big man in every draft.

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