RADIO
Connelly's fantasy baseball risers and fallers for Week 6 of 2025. He assesses hitters and pitchers performing well and poorly to determine their future value.
Welcome, everyone, to another edition of RotoBaller’s Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers article series for Week 6 of the 2025 season! Today, I'll be taking a look at names like Riley Greene, Robbie Ray, Bryce Harper, Sandy Alcantara, and more.
Keeping up with the latest hitter and pitcher trends is a key component for a successful season, and RotoBaller is here to help fantasy managers! Each week, I will choose a few players who have performed well lately and a few who have not, and I will analyze them to determine how their future performance may change.
It is important to remember that one month of data may seem like a lot, but it is just a fraction of the season. Players still have time to course correct, but identifying who may do so is key!
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Fantasy Baseball Hitter Risers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 4, 2025.
Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers (OF)
.275/.321/.496 Slash Line, 8 HRs, 21 RBI, 0 SB
Riley Greene was once a higher-end fantasy prospect and has consistently produced throughout his young career. 2025 has been no different overall, and things have been going well for him offensively lately.
Greene has produced a career-high .496 slugging percentage, which his last seven games have fueled. He has hit half of his home runs in those games, and while he has always hit the ball hard, he has managed a strong 92.6 mph average exit velocity in that period.
No player in MLB history had ever hit 2 homers in the 9th inning of a game ... until Riley Greene last night.
(h/t @SlangsOnSports)
(MLB x @BudweiserUSA) pic.twitter.com/WckSd9djOY
— MLB (@MLB) May 3, 2025
Greene has never been one to hit the ball with a high launch angle, but his high exit velocities have led to a career-best 27.6% HR/FB rate. This is way higher than his 17.1% mark, so I would not expect his current production to persist long-term.
Greene may be outperforming himself slightly in the power department and has yet to attempt a steal, but he is a solid hitter who impacts the ball well. He has spent most of his time in the middle of a surprisingly hot Tigers offense, which should allow him to be a four-category contributor, even if he were to experience some power regression.
Luis Robert Jr., Chicago White Sox (OF)
.182/.300/.345 Slash Line, 4 HRs, 13 SBs
Luis Robert Jr. has been a frustrating fantasy option over his career. He has shown that he can be a five-category contributor, but he has also dealt with injuries and poor stretches while hitting in a weak lineup. His overall numbers this season aren't inspiring, but things have been better lately.
Should fantasy managers trust his recent uptick in production?
Digging into his recent numbers, Robert entered Sunday on an eight-game hit streak, batting .300 with three HRs and six stolen bases. This could be attributed to his better batted-ball profile. He has hit the ball with slightly below league-average velocity this season, but he has a 96.3 mph average exit velocity during his hot stretch.
La Pantera with a 407 foot blast for career hit No. 500! 💥 pic.twitter.com/mq06JDsPnL
— White Sox on CHSN (@CHSN_WhiteSox) May 3, 2025
Almost half of his season production has come in the last eight games, which means he has done very little for a month's worth of games. As I mentioned, Robert usually makes hard contact but has failed to do so overall this season. This has resulted in a .234 BABIP that is much lower than his career .324 mark.
He has also struck out way too much at a 31.8% clip, although this has always been an issue with his game. The good news is that speed has also been a part of his game. He has stolen bases often this season, leading the league in stolen bases.
Fantasy managers may be frustrated with Robert early on, but he has looked much more like himself recently. His lineup context will not improve unless he is traded to another team, but it appears that he is back on track to being a fantasy contributor.
Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Risers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 4, 2025.
Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants
4-0, 3.05 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 25.9% Strikeout Rate, 38 1/3 IP
Robbie Ray has had a fantasy career full of highs and lows, including an American League Cy Young Award and numerous injuries. He has gotten things on track so far, going 4-0 with a 3.05 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 25.9% strikeout rate in seven starts.
Control has been an issue throughout Ray’s career, and that has not changed despite his strong peripherals. His 13.3% walk rate is too high and is higher than his 10.1% career mark. The good news is that Ray has limited the walks in his last two starts, issuing just three free passes total.
This has allowed him to pitch deep into those starts with seven IP/GS in each.
Fantasy managers have been able to stomach his walk issues in the past because of his high strikeout numbers. He hasn't provided this all season, but he racked up eight punchouts in each of his last two starts, perhaps due to better overall command and improved control.
Robbie Ray's 2Ks in the 2nd. pic.twitter.com/tQUBbmDDYH
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 3, 2025
Rostering Ray in fantasy is a frustrating experience. He can completely handicap himself through walks, but he can pitch deep into games with plenty of strikeouts when he limits walks. I wouldn't be surprised if his 2025 numbers ended up closer to his career marks, but things are currently clicking for him.
Justin Verlander, San Francisco Giants
0-2, 4.38 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 20.4% Strikeout Rate, 37 IP
It is not a secret that age-42 Justin Verlander is not the fantasy asset he once was. However, he is now pitching his home games in one of baseball's most pitcher-friendly parks and has looked decent overall. What does he have left in the tank for fantasy managers?
Verlander has turned in three straight quality starts with a stellar 1.96 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a 21.7% strikeout rate in 18 1/3 IP. He did take advantage of favorable matchups, two of which were in Oracle Park. The strikeouts are still only mediocre, but Verlander hasn't posted high-end strikeout numbers for several seasons.
Justin Verlander turns in his third consecutive quality start 💪 pic.twitter.com/AvbVSnOmns
— MLB (@MLB) May 2, 2025
Verlander's pitch arsenal is led by his fastball. He has lost velocity on it over the last several seasons, which correlates with his drop in strikeouts. However, his success has always come from inducing non-damaging contact in the air with it, which he has done lately.
Fantasy managers should, of course, temper their expectations, but Verlander should offer fantasy value as a back-of-the-rotation starter in at least points leagues if he can pitch deeper into games, even without the strikeouts.
Fantasy Baseball Hitter Fallers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 4, 2025.
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies (1B)
.228/.358/.398 Slash Line, 5 HRs, 16 RBI, 6 SBs
Bryce Harper has been a high-end fantasy hitter throughout his career, but his .228/.358/.398 slash line looks nothing like his career .280/.388/.519 line. What is going on, and should fantasy managers be worried?
Fortunately, signs under the hood point to bad luck as the culprit. Harper's approach at the plate seems disciplined, with a 16.9% walk rate and a 19.6% strikeout rate. He has also hit the ball hard frequently, in line with his career batted-ball profile.
Despite this, he has managed a .258 BABIP compared to a .322 career mark. He has also compiled a career-high 46.2% fly-ball rate but a career-low 11.6% HR/FB rate. He has also already stolen six bases, putting him on pace to test a career-high.
Harper's overall profile looks solid despite his peripherals. He may be a fantasy faller in terms of production, but he seems like a prime buy-low candidate relatively early in the season.
Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee Brewers (OF)
.255/.268/.476 Slash Line, 6 HRs, 24 RBI, 2 SBs
Jackson Chourio's season stat line looks fine overall for the most part. However, he has managed a pedestrian .246/.270/.393 slash line in his last 14 games. Could this be the beginning of a sophomore slump?
Several things stand out over that period. First, Chourio has not hit the ball nearly as hard as he did last season. His overall exit velocity is down from 89.7 mph in 2024 to 88 mph overall, but he has averaged just 86.9 mph in that 14-game span. This is likely the cause of his low slugging percentage.
He has also had just four stolen base attempts all season, one unsuccessful one in the last 14 games. He still has top speed, so that hasn't been the issue. Stolen bases are driven by the intent to try to steal, but he hasn't gotten on base as much to present opportunities.
He has a minuscule 1.3% walk rate this season and has just one walk in the last 14 games. The good thing is that strikeouts have not been an issue even in his relative slump, but he has not gotten on base much and has been passive when he has gotten on.
Chourio's main fantasy appeal was his ability to provide both power and speed while not sacrificing batting average. Lately, he has not provided power, shown little interest in stealing, and hasn't been on base much due to not walking or hitting the ball hard.
Baseball is full of ebbs and flows, so fantasy managers should try not to put too much stock in a slow couple of weeks this early in the season.
Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Fallers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 4, 2025.
Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
2-3, 8.31 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 15.8% Strikeout Rate, 26 IP
Sandy Alcantara had not pitched since 2023 due to Tommy John surgery, so his return this season came with much fantasy excitement. Unfortunately, nothing has gone right for the former National League Cy Young Award winner in 2025, with a bloated 8.31 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP.
Starting with the most glaring potential issue, Alcantara appears healthy, at least by looking at his velocity. His fastball velocities are between 0.5 and 1.0 mph slower than in 2023, but he is averaging 96.7 mph with his sinker and 97.4 mph with his four-seamer.
His batted-ball profile is also not all that much different than in previous seasons. He has a career-high average exit velocity at 91 mph, but he has done an excellent job keeping the ball on the ground with a 3.9-degree launch angle. His .272 BABIP aligns with his .275 career mark, so nothing seems out of place.
One big difference compared to previous seasons is the number of walks. Alcantara has a 7.6% career walk rate but has nearly doubled that so far with a 14.2% mark. This could also be impacting his strikeout rate, as hitters have stopped swinging at his pitches thrown out of the zone.
Overall, some signs suggest that Alcantara's results should not be this bad, and it is hard to imagine that a pitcher of his caliber would maintain such poor results for an entire season.
Is it time to panic about Sandy Alcantara's slow start to the season?@Marlins | #marlinsbeisbol
🔗 https://t.co/fGPbvbj8w4 pic.twitter.com/h7HsVK5ig0— MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (@MLBNetworkRadio) May 4, 2025
The Marlins do not sound concerned, so fantasy managers can hold out hope, although they should keep him out of their rotations until he starts to turn things around.
Ryan Walker, San Francisco Giants
6-7 Save Opportunities Converted, 5.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 25% Strikeout Rate
Ryan Walker had an outstanding 2024 season, eventually stealing the closer's role from Camilo Doval for the Giants. Things started well in 2025, but several blow-up outings have bloated his ERA. What could this mean for his fantasy value?
The odd thing is that Walker has only allowed runs in three of his 13 outings, meaning he has pitched well despite a few blips. His strikeout rate is above league average, he hasn't put runners on for free, and he has done a great job limiting hard contact.
Despite this, he has seen just two save opportunities in the last 15 days, converting one of them. He pitched in five games, so his usage may have just misaligned with save opportunities.
Doval has converted all three of his save opportunities in that time frame without allowing a run, although his strikeout rate this season has been uncharacteristically low. The tricky thing here is that Doval was the team's closer for some time, so he has the skills to eat into Walker's role.
In this case, Walker's peripherals look poor due to a few bad outings, but he has pitched well overall. There is plenty of opportunity for fantasy value if a team splits save opportunities, so while Walker may be a relative fantasy faller, both he and Doval could continue to provide fantasy value.
For the latest bullpen news, be sure to check out RotoBaller's Fantasy Baseball Closer Depth Chart series.
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