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Kevin Luchansky highlights the top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for 8/4/16. These are the top value and sleeper plays for your FanDuel MLB DFS lineups.
I have to say, twelve games on the slate is pretty pleasing for a Thursday. I'd love a few more to be on the Main contest, but a five-seven split makes things pretty interesting for both slates - and FanDuel has an All Day option as well. As far as any insights we might pull from Vegas lines for stacking purposes, the over/under lines are pretty disappointing. We have a Coors game, but even that line isn't high at just 10.5 With the rest of the field there are just four that have an over/under of nine (Minnesota at Cleveland; St. Louis at Cincinnati; Texas at Baltimore; Pittsburgh at Atlanta) and after that the lines are all low. For the best positive park factors there is, of course, the Coors game, followed by the left-handed batters of the Yankees and Mets, the left-handed batters of the Rangers and Orioles, followed by the right-handed batters of the Cardinals and Reds.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball MLB lineup picks for FanDuel on 8/4/16. The DFS lineup picks will range from high-priced to low-priced options and identify options who will out-perform their expectations, including sleepers and value plays on FanDuel.
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DFS Lineup Stacks to Target for FanDuel
Pittsburgh Pirates against Tyrell Jenkins
I love picking on struggling rookie pitchers, especially with a veteran, patient lineup like the one the Pirates deploy. The early-to-middle of the order for Pittsburgh has a bunch of guys with strong splits against right-handed pitchers and they are incredibly affordable today, too. You could combine this (hopefully) lucrative stack with any pitcher on the slate. Jenkins has struggled with control this season and in keeping the ball in the yard, and the Pirates should be able to exploit that. My favorite Pirates are John Jaso, Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte and Matt Joyce.
Los Angeles Dodgers against Tyler Chatwood
On a day with such low run total projections, we can't ignore the lone double-digit game. I prefer the Dodgers in this matchup over the Rockies, as several of the early order hitters have strong splits against right-handed pitching. Chatwood's slugging percentage allowed doesn't jump off the page, but he has given up seven of his eight home runs at Coors Field this season. My favorite Dodgers this evening are Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Josh Reddick and Yasmani Grandal.
Also Consider: Cincinnati Reds left-handed batters versus Mike Leake
DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider for FanDuel
Let me preface this section by saying, on paper, there are no real safe bet picks today among starting pitchers. There are a handful of risks associated with each. If there were ever a day to avoid cash games and take risks in tournament formats, today is that day. The pitchers below are all ones I'll be taking a calculated risk on, each with strikeout upside.
Drew Pomeranz (SP, BOS) - $9,600
Pomeranz hasn't exactly dazzled since his move to the Red Sox before the trade deadline, but his overall numbers are still positive this season as he's exceeded value in 57% of his starts, by an average of more than five points a contest. He boasts the best K/9 of anyone pitching today (10.57) and faces a team that has struck out in nearly 27% of their at-bats this season against southpaws. Additionally, he's pitching in a top five pitcher's park this evening.
Drew Smyly (SP, TAM) - $8,900
Smyly, like Pomeranz of late, has been pretty impossible to predict from start to start. On a limited slate tonight, I'm willing to take my chances. That decision is a little easier when you look at the fact the Royals have one of the lowest implied run totals this evening and the game is taking place in the most pitcher-friendly park of all the stadiums hosting games tonight. The Royals don't strike out a ton, but their strikeout percentage has crept up and Smyly does boast a K/9 of 9.5
Also Consider: JA Happ (SP, TOR) - $9,100
DFS Infielders to Consider for FanDuel
Catcher (C) - Cameron Rupp (C, PHI) - $2,400
The wOBA splits among all the catchers available today are pretty uninspiring. As such, I'm looking for power upside at a cheap price in a hitter's park, and Cameron Rupp and his .304 ISO split fit the bill.
First Base (1B) - Justin Smoak (1B, TOR) -$2,700
Smoak has an excellent opportunity tonight to exceed value and then some. He's quite a bargain at this price and has strong splits when facing right-handed pitchers - .337 wOBA and the thing I'm most excited about, a .240 ISO. The park is also one of the better tonight from an offensive standpoint.
Also Consider: Chris Davis (1B, BAL) - $4,000
Second Base (2B) - Rougned Odor (2B, TEX) - $3,800
Odor's DFS results have been on a bit of a roller-coaster of late, but his peripheral stats reveal he's been smoking the ball (42% hard hit rate and a 26% line drive rate) and his splits are very impressive.
Shortstop (SS) - Corey Seager (SS, LAD) - $4,300
Perhaps his salary is heavily influenced with what is a relatively low Coors over/under (10.5), but Seager at this price is something I can work with at any park, nonetheless the best in the league for offense. Oh, and his splits are pretty spectacular, too, especially relative to the rest of the shortstops. Seager also has a hard hit rate over the past 15 days that puts him top five among shortstops available today.
Third Base (3B) - Pedro Alvarez (3B, BAL) - $3,200
Pedro and the rest of his Orioles teamates - they with the .320 season wOBA against right-handed pitching - could be in for a big night against AJ Griffin. Alvarez is listed at a fair price and is playing one of the best parks for left-handed batters tonight. His season splits against right-handers holds its weight in wOBA and is pretty impressive in ISO (.266).
DFS Outfielders to Consider for FanDuel
Matt Joyce (OF, PIT) - $2,400
Joyce is an excellent value guy with home run upside. Where he hits in the order may determine if he's cash game safe or not, but he should and the rest of the Pirates should be able to pick on Tyrell Jenkins, who has had a really rough time in his rookie campaign. He's posted a WHIP north of 1.8 and is allowing nearly two home runs per nine innings. Joyce has good splits against right-handed pitching this season, posting a .397 wOBA and a .267 ISO.
Josh Reddick (OF, LAD) - $3,900
Reddick's numbers don't jump off the board at you, but he's facing Tyler Chatwood in Coors Field and his .198 ISO split versus right-handers is 106 points higher than his split versus lefties. As for Chatwood, his HR/9 sits under one, but seven of his eight bombs allowed this season have come at home. Add to the above the fact that he hits in an optimal position in the order and this game features the highest project run total, and you could almost consider him a bargain.
Max Kepler (OF,MIN) - $3,700
This 23 year old from Germany is really something else. He's on quite a power tear right now, having hit four home runs in the past three nights. Not only is he on a tear, but he's still pretty under-priced, considering his upside, and he also has a healthy matchup tonight against Clevinger. Clevinger hasn't pitched in a while this year, and when he did mix in a few innings, it wasn't pretty.
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