October 27, 2015

Nick Mariano analyzes the waiver wire options in FAAB fantasy football leagues and shows you the best deals on the NFL market in 2015 fantasy football auction leagues.

Week 7 was relatively quiet outside of Arian Foster being lost for the year, and even his replacements aren't really enticing. This week seems to be more about reminders from players who have played well before, but may be available due to their own bye weeks or coming back from an injury.

Buffalo, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, and Washington are the teams with a bye this week. Not the biggest collection of fantasy relevant players from those teams, but any of these midseason four team bye weeks usually means plenty of people are in the hunt for someone off of the waiver wire, which may mean that bids may require an extra buck or two to lock up.

Let’s look around the league at who is worth a bid going into Week 8. Each price recommendation will be based on a $100 FAAB budget.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks

Derek Carr (QB, OAK) – FAAB Bid: $6 - 8

42% owned in Fleaflicker

Derek Carr came out firing against the San Diego defense in Week 7, ending the game with 24 completions on 31 attempts for 289 yards and three touchdowns. The 77% completion percentage is lovely to see. Carr is going to face a tough test against the Jets in Week 8, but in Week 9 he gets the Pittsburgh defense which just lost to the depleted Kansas City Chiefs. Carr and the Raiders have shown that they are nowhere near the running joke that they've been in past years. Still available in over half of leagues, he is more appealing than his divisional rival Peyton Manning.

Teddy Bridgewater (QB, MIN) – FAAB Bid: $2 - 3

37% owned in Fleaflicker

Quarterbacks who face the Detroit Lions should have their performances taken with a grain of salt, but he still had to perform. Bridgewater completed 25 passes on 35 attempts for 316 yards and two touchdowns. He looked comfortable, while being able to extend the play with his exceptional mobility. He probably wouldn't be a recommendation if it weren't for the fact that the Vikings now get to face the Bears. Just as the Lions are a soft matchup for quarterbacks, the Bears also tend to leave their opponents' stat lines chock full of goodness. Bridgewater doesn't get a lot of attention due to the low volume and middling performance to date, but he showed that he can put up points and he has a great matchup next week. If you need a simple one week rental, grab Teddy.

Others To Note:

Jay Cutler (QB, CHI) – FAAB Bid: $3 - 4

39% owned in Fleaflicker

Maybe Cutler is finally shaking off the bad reputation that he's gotten in football circles. He is still available in over half of Fleaflicker leagues after carving up the Detroit Lions defense to post the ninth best quarterback numbers in Week 6 according to Fleaflicker default scoring. Most importantly, Chicago's bye week gave their players a chance to really get everyone 100% healthy. Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal and Martellus Bennett all came into the game at less than 100%, and two weeks off is doing them very well. This greatly benefits Jay Cutler. They come out of the bye to face a pretty good Vikings defense, and then they'll engage in a probable shootout with San Diego in Week 9. Scoop him up as he was dropped in plenty of leagues during his bye week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, NYJ) – FAAB Bid: $3 - 4

30% owned in Fleaflicker

Ryan Fitzpatrick is out there slinging the pigskin, and while New England honestly has a pretty poor pass defense, he still did well and did not rely on fantastic catch bailouts from his stud receivers. While that's a nice safety blanket to have, with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker able to do things the average receiver can't on poorly thrown balls, Fitzpatrick was much better with his throws on Sunday. Despite the poor completion percentage (56%), he was missing in places where only his receivers could get it, which is different than past weeks. The Jets face the Raiders and Jaguars in the next two weeks, so Fitzpatrick should be able to continue to put up solid QB2 numbers in those matchups.

Jameis Winston (QB, TB) - FAAB Bid: $1 - 2 

29% owned in Fleaflicker

Jameis Winston started off so poorly that it very well may have tapped into a few cognitive biases for people where we give an exceptional amount of decision making weight to his first game. The past few weeks have seen Jameis Winston look more confident, and while he still makes some mistakes like throwing across his body and not simply throwing it away, he is clearly improving. He lost his #2 and #3 receiver in Sunday's game (Vincent Jackson and Louis Murphy both went down), but he finally got something going with Mike Evans and he should get his big tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins back this week. Doug Martin is running great, taking some pressure off of what Winston has to do. He gets the Falcons and Giants in the coming weeks, which isn't great, but if the other guys are owned and Winston is still out there, just know he isn't the same awful quarterback that faced the Titans, or even the Panthers back in Week 4 (though you won't want to play him against elite defenses like Carolina period).

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs

Darren McFadden (DAL, RB) – FAAB Bid: $12 - 15

56% owned in Fleaflicker

Going into this game he was being pegged as a good PPR league option thanks to the Lance Dunbar role he was filling. Little did any of us know that Joseph Randle would leave the game early and McFadden would absolutely take over for the Dallas backfield. The Christine Michael hype train never got to leave the station. McFadden showed great burst and power, hitting holes and pushing piles. He finished with 152 yards on 29 carries and a touchdown, and in this game you want to be early to the party, not late. Jason Garrett said in his weekly radio interview on Monday morning how McFadden's performance warranted him more looks. Combine this with speculation that Randle may be facing a rather serious injury, and baby, you've got a stew going. McFadden may very well have earned himself the lead chair position in this committee. You want the guy who is running behind that amazing offensive line, let alone that McFadden looked good doing it.

Charcandrick West (RB, KC) - FAAB Bid: $12 - 15

42% owned in Fleaflicker

West is clearly the starting running back for Kansas City. A starting running back in an offense that will (stubbornly and sometimes stupidly) abuse their running game needs to be owned in way more than 42% of leagues. It's understandable how after last week's absolute dud that West may have been cut by owners, or just ignored in shallower leagues where owners could afford a "show me" week. He showed everyone that he can make things happen though. If he's out there, you've got to get him. He may have some tough matchups that leave him on your bench, but KC has made it clear that they are committed to West, and in the right matchups this is going to pay handsomely for West owners.

Alfred Blue (HOU, RB) – FAAB Bid: $10 - 12

48% owned in Fleaflicker

Yeah, Arian Foster is done for 2015. There are plenty of implications for Arian Foster and his own career, and questions as to why Foster was in the game, but for our sake we are concerned about the next man up. At this point, Blue isn't going to be a "bellcow" presumably, but he did get the bulk of the carries in the Week 3 matchup against Tampa Bay before Foster had returned. Not to mention that he destroyed the Bucs for 139 yards and a touchdown, so somewhere he probably earned the right to get first crack at snaps. Jonathan Grimes and Chris Polk will also see the field in the committee, but look for Blue to be the committee chair at the outset. He gets to face the Titans, then the Texans have their bye week, and then a date with Cincinnati looms followed by the Jets. So, it might be tough sledding for Blue and the Texans running game here. Don't expect much, but a starting RB is a starting RB.

James Starks (GB, RB) - FAAB Bid: $8 - 10

43% owned in Fleaflicker

Just because the Packers had a bye week, don't forget that James Starks had become a thing. Perhaps he was left on the waiver wire because he wasn't playing this week and people couldn't spare the bench spot, but now he should definitely get scooped up. Before Week 6's game, many of Lacy's woes could have been chalked up to the bum ankle and a really difficult schedule. However, putting up a dud against the San Diego Chargers really pokes a hole in the "tough schedule" theory, as the Chargers had been gashed (and continued to be by Oakland on Sunday). So now it boils down to whether you think he wasn't in the game because his ankle was bothering him, or if you believe that it was his general ineffectiveness and game flow that took him out. Well, truth be told the Packers didn't run the ball a lot, but Coach Mike McCarthy had said before the game how James Starks was running well in practice and that he wanted to get him some more snaps. What we saw last Sunday against the Chargers appeared to be the perfect storm of things working against Eddie Lacy. Starks did get his additional snaps, and he looked good with them, and Lacy barely saw the field against a soft defense. You aren't dropping Lacy, but Starks does make for a viable add as the Pack head into their bye week.

Others To Note:

Orleans Darkwa (NYG, RB) – FAAB Bid: $1 - 3

1% owned in Fleaflicker

Well, kudos to anyone who saw this coming. Without any injury to bring this on, it appears that Tom Coughlin was just frustrated with the general ineffectiveness of Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams to the point where he told Darkwa to go on and get out there. He still only ended up with eight rushes, though the Giants offense didn't really get the chance to do much as the defense and special teams won them the game, but Darkwa still got 48 yards and a touchdown, averaging six yards per carry. If this was his audition, he proved that he might very well be deserving of the "1A" role in the backfield for the Giants. Don't go crazy, as the other backs won't disappear, but Darkwa is still definitely noteworthy as the Giants will be facing the Saints and Bucs next, who can definitely be run on.

David Cobb (RB, TEN) - FAAB Bid: $1 - 2

34% owned in Fleaflicker

If you can still get Cobb right now, he can probably be had for cheap. He won't appear on any of the weekly stat sheets as he is still on the injured reserve. He will return in a few weeks and no one in Tennessee's backfield has shown they can be a true running back with any effectiveness. Dexter McCluster has shown lately that he has value as a pass catcher, but he isn't big enough to be a true between the tackles guy. Antonio Andrews, Terrance West, and Bishop Sankey have all failed to do anything special, so David Cobb should get a good crack at the job when he comes back. If you have room to speculate, scoop him up for cheap now before demand and an imminent return drive the price up.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs (MIN, WR) – FAAB Bid: $6 - 8

38% owned in Fleaflicker

The Minnesota Vikings appear to have found an amazing wide receiver in their ranks, with Stefon Diggs showing that he is a really great route runner who was able to step up into Charles Johnson's starting spot and ball out. It was worrisome for Diggs' owners that Charles Johnson may have rotated back in now that he was healthy, but it was announced that Diggs would start, and he proved why he should be the starter. He turned nine targets into six receptions for 108 yards and an amazing diving catch for a touchdown. His Week 6 effort saw him turn nine targets into seven catches for 129 yards. He has now torn up the Chiefs and Lions. While those secondaries are nothing to write home about, he still did a lot more than the other Vikings' receivers did against the same matchups. Bridgewater clearly likes and trusts Diggs. The Vikings now face the Bears in another cake matchup, so look for Diggs to continue to produce. Diggs is your #1 wide receiver target this week.

Marvin Jones (CIN, WR) – FAAB Bid: $6 - 8

47% owned in Fleaflicker

Nothing has changed here. The Bengals went into their bye week with Jones being someone that should be targeted by owners, and no freak injury occurred in the meantime so you should still go and get him. The Cincinnati Bengals are undeniably legitimate in 2015. Andy Dalton is one of the best quarterbacks right now and he has plenty of weapons to choose from on any given play. While Marvin Jones may not be a shiny name like A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert, or even Giovani Bernard, he sure is putting up numbers that need to be rostered. He finished last week's game at Buffalo with 12 targets (!) for nine receptions, 95 yards and an acrobatic touchdown.  The Bengals are rested and now face the Browns, Steelers, and Texans, which are three very exploitable defenses. Look for Jones and the Bengals to continue rolling and scoring points, and if you can get a piece of that in Jones, do it.

Others to Note:

Brandon LaFell (NE, WR) - FAAB Bid: $6 - 8

43% owned in Fleaflicker

Well, there are a few ways you can look at LaFell's 2015 debut. He did get eight targets in limited action which is encouraging, but he recorded six drops (which is a little harsh to put them all on him, but some were well deserved) and was benched for Aaron Dobson later in the game. You can't wait on a Patriots' weapon to have a great game though, so you'll want to scoop him up and speculate if you can before he gets it together. While the Patriots aren't known for their patience with players, LaFell has a good track record with them and shouldn't be kicked to the curb due to a poor first game back. Hopefully the rust will be shaken off now, as the Patriots will head into a matchup with the poor Dolphins' secondary, and then the awful Washington secondary. LaFell should have a great chance to bounce back in those games if he's given the opportunity. For what it's worth, Brady defended LaFell's poor performance, and he should be a solid play down the road.

Nate Washington (HOU, WR) – FAAB Bid: $2 - 4

9% owned in Fleaflicker

Cecil Shorts was out this week, and Washington returned from his own injury. While DeAndre Hopkins is getting a ton of (deserved) love, it also means he can draw quite a lot of defensive attention. Nate Washington isn't the most consistent receiver by any means, but with Houston finding themselves playing from behind and in garbage time quite a bit, the ball is going to be aired out. Brian Hoyer looks better for the Texans' passing attack than Ryan Mallett, and Hoyer looks to have a strong hold on the job right now. With Arian Foster out, his targets will be sprinkled to the receivers, not to mention that a less effective rushing game means more passing. It'll be telling how the targets shake out when Shorts returns, as well as how many three wide sets Houston runs, but Washington should be added by teams who need wide receiver help.

Robert Woods (BUF, WR) – FAAB Bid: $2 - 4

13% owned in Fleaflicker

With Sammy Watkins out and Percy Harvin reportedly hurt so badly that retirement is on the table, Robert Woods was the man for E.J. Manuel and the Buffalo Bills. Yes, it was against Jacksonville's secondary, but Woods still saw 13 targets. It is very difficult to write off a 13 target game. He turned those into nine receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown. He's not the most tantalizing of targets for the waiver wire, but coaches and owners alike aren't going to ignore the effort he put forward in this game. If the other names are owned, there's nothing wrong with settling for Woods as some wide receiver relief.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends

Jordan Reed (WSH, TE) – FAAB Bid: $6 - 8

45% owned in Fleaflicker

When Jordan Reed is active, he needs to be on somebody's team. You're going to want it to be yours. Kirk Cousins absolutely loves Jordan Reed, and for good reason. The guy is a great athlete, a big target, and he has good hands and route running abilities out of the tight end spot. He brutalized Tampa Bay for 11 catches, 72 yards and two touchdowns on 13 targets. Now the Buccaneers defense turned into an absolute sieve in the fourth quarter, but Reed was getting the looks from Cousins all game. He is a TE1 when he's healthy, you just need to be prepared to have a fallback option at tight end for his next injury.

Eric Ebron (DET, TE) - FAAB Bid: $1 - 2

33% owned in Fleaflicker

Ebron returned from missing a couple weeks due to a knee injury to square up against a Vikings defense that was vulnerable against the tight end. It appears Detroit did some homework, as Ebron got five catches for 89 yards and a touchdown. There are a few key components to the stat sheet that are even more encouraging than the numbers. First of all, he's being targeted in the red zone, his size is impossible to ignore and outside of Calvin Johnson he should be the second read for Stafford. He did well to get open as Stafford scrambled right on a broken play and he made the catch. Also, Ebron had struggled with drops earlier, but he caught all five of his targets. His role should be solidified moving forward, the only issue might be ceding some snaps to Brandon Pettigrew when he returns, but it shouldn't be that significant as Detroit needs to utilize all of the effective weapons they've got.

Kyle Rudolph (MIN, TE) – FAAB Bid: $1

45% owned in Fleaflicker

Rudolph the Red Zone Reindeer. The targets just simply aren't coming his way for the most part, but he's getting the ball in the red zone. He had yet another awful yardage day (he's averaged 10 yards per game in the past four weeks, with no significant outliers involved), but for the second straight week he caught a touchdown. If you're in a pinch and Rudolph is available, you could do worse, but it appears for now that his ceiling is capped right around 8-10 points.

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