RADIO
With trade deadlines past in most redraft leagues, it's time to start evaluating the long-term value of players in dynasty! There are, of course, plenty of dynasty leagues with trade deadlines as well, but many commissioners have eliminated them to encourage activity in their leagues. Fantasy football is supposed to be fun and trading is such a crucial factor in dynasty, so I am firmly anti-deadline in these formats.
It's important to remember that strategies differ greatly in dynasty leagues. In redraft, everyone's goal is to win the championship, but many dynasty managers actively try to move their best players in hopes of earning the first overall pick in the next rookie draft. This is something to keep in mind when sending out offers as it is unlikely that the team in last place would be interested in acquiring an aging win-now player like Raheem Mostert.
Just as I did all season for redraft leagues, I will highlight two players to target in trades and two players to trade away given their current perceived value. With each player mentioned, I'll be sure to point out if they are a better fit for contending or rebuilding rosters. Additionally, be sure to bookmark our free fantasy football trade analyzer and calculator tool which is a great resource too.
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Players to Target in Trades for Dynasty Fantasy Football
Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers
It seems that there is an unusually large number of day two or later wide receivers that have surprised for fantasy purposes this season. Dynasty gamers were quick to sing the praises of Puka Nacua, Josh Downs, and Tank Dell, but Green Bay's Jayden Reed has taken a little more time to earn recognition.
Reed scored twice in his second professional contest but saw inconsistent utilization over his next six games. Over the past three weeks, though, Reed has stepped up. The 23-year-old is the fantasy WR9 since Week 10, scoring 15.7 points per game and finishing as a top-25 wideout in each appearance during that span.
An argument against Reed could be that he is still playing behind Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, which is true. Although Watson and Doubs have operated as the team's two primary receivers, playing on far more snaps than the rookie, Reed doesn't trail them by much in terms of targets per game. He's also been more efficient than both of them.
Packers wide receivers this season:
Romeo Doubs: 1.37 yards per route run
Christian Watson: 1.28 yards per route run
Dontayvion Wicks: 2.03 yards per route run
Jayden Reed: 1.93 yards per route run— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 20, 2023
This post is from November 20th but these numbers didn't change much after the Packers' Thanksgiving Day game. Perhaps Dontayvion Wicks deserves a shout-out too, as he has impressed with limited work. Either way, none of Green Bay's receivers have established themselves as true WR1s, paving the way for Reed to become the top dog.
Coming into the season, the consensus was that Watson would take the next step and be the team's most productive pass-catcher. Unfortunately, injuries have held him back, much like they did throughout his rookie campaign.
Given the second-round draft pick spent on him, Watson will continue to be used as a deep threat when healthy, but let's not forget that Reed was a second-round NFL Draft selection as well. I don't mean to write off Doubs or Wicks as they will surely still contribute, but Reed has the prerequisite draft capital and has shown enough potential to emerge as an every-down player eventually.
The verdict is still out on Packers quarterback Jordan Lovebut the fourth-year pro has looked sharp in recent weeks. The Packers have boasted an extremely successful organization for a long time, so even if Love doesn't pan out as a franchise QB, don't expect Green Bay to go very long without one.
The Packers have a few very enticing matchups remaining on their schedule and Reed should earn more touches as we approach the season's end. If he takes advantage of these opportunities, his dynasty value could skyrocket heading into the summer. I think both contending and rebuilding teams could benefit from adding the Michigan State product.
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Before you get the wrong idea, allow me to make this clear: Bryce Young has not been good this season, and he's not a contender's ticket to a fantasy championship. The first-overall pick has just one performance as a top-12 fantasy quarterback while C.J. Stroud is the QB6 on the season.
It is totally within reason to call Young's rookie campaign a disappointment, but I will argue that it is unfair to label a player a bust after just 10 professional games. This is especially the case when he is a quarterback playing behind a terrible offensive line on a team with a bottom-five running game that has 33-year-old Adam Thielen as its only reliable receiver. I almost forgot to mention the play-calling.
4th and 6 with the game on the line and you run a screen pass 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage…
That’s just absurd to me.
pic.twitter.com/5fEz0fXAHk— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) November 26, 2023
Carolina fired head coach Frank Reich earlier this week. Reich had been handling play-calling duties for the majority of the season but this responsibility will now lie in the hands of offensive coordinator Thomas Brown. After an 0-6 start, Reich named Brown the play-caller for Week 7, and the Panthers got their first win in a duel with the Texans. Young was solid in the victory, but unfortunately, both he and the offense regressed over the next two weeks. This led to Reich calling plays again but the team's struggles persisted.
All of that said, it's not likely that the Panthers suddenly turn things around and become a high-powered offense. Considering Carolina's only win came in a contest that Brown called, though, we can hope to see some improvements.
Following the announcement that Reich had been fired, Panthers owner David Tepper was emphatic that he still had full confidence in Young. While he essentially has to say this, it drives home an important point. The team will not be giving up on him anytime soon. Carolina traded pick 10, pick 56, its first-round pick in 2024, its second-round pick in 2025, and D.J. Moore just to select Young with the number one pick. With this type of investment, Young will be given numerous opportunities and could outlast multiple coaches.
If you have a contending team with a first-round rookie pick, you wouldn't be sacrificing much to trade it for Young in a superflex dynasty league. Not many 22-year-old quarterbacks with job security can be acquired for a single first. I would certainly explore trades for Young on rebuilding squads with assets to give, as well. He may never live up to the hype, but it is far too early to be certain.
Players to Trade Away for Dynasty Fantasy Football
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Every year, several proven veterans are disrespected in fantasy drafts despite years of prolific output. Through nine seasons, Mike Evans had never finished outside of the top 24 fantasy wide receivers, yet he was commonly selected in the double-digit rounds of dynasty startup drafts this past offseason. As the WR8 right now, his impressive streak of productivity will not be coming to an end in 2023.
It's difficult to convince yourself to trade away this type of consistency, but teams without any chance of making the playoffs this season should look to do so. Evans is set to be an unrestricted free agent next summer and will turn 31 years old before the 2024 campaign kicks off.
Should we fear age 29/30 for star fantasy wide receivers?
That + 46 other things I learned while compiling the initial 2022 projections: https://t.co/CBSmsyCaT1 [+] pic.twitter.com/UpIP756BYR
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) March 30, 2022
The post above is from last summer and mentions Evans as a player with a few quality seasons left in the tank. The overall point that receivers generally decline at around age 30 still stands, however. Out of the other current wideouts named, Keenan Allen is the only one posting steady fantasy numbers. Sure, DeAndre Hopkins and Davante Adams may be negatively impacted by their situations, but that brings me to my next point.
If Evans leaves Tampa Bay after this season, we can't guarantee that he ends up in a better, or at least equivalent, environment. We can dream of him catching perfectly placed deep balls from Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City, but it's just as likely that Evans winds up being the veteran leader in a receiver corps catching passes from a rookie signal-caller.
Even though Evans is staring down a tough remaining schedule, dynasty managers with their sights set on a title should hold onto him and lock him in as an every-week starter for the rest of the season. If you find yourself on the outside looking in, now is the time to flip him to a contender for picks or younger players.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs hasn't been around quite long enough to label him the Mike Evans of running backs, but he has been an incredibly consistent source of fantasy production since entering the league in 2019. He exploded in 2022 with over 2,000 total yards and 12 touchdowns. Although Jacobs is in the midst of the least efficient season of his career, he is still the RB4 in fantasy football.
At 25 years old, Jacobs isn't necessarily approaching the age at which running backs generally start to decline. Instead, the concern here is that Jacobs will be a free agent after this season, and Las Vegas has already been reluctant to offer him a long-term extension. With the running back market looking more bleak than ever, this upcoming offseason will be very interesting for players like Jacobs, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, and Derrick Henry.
NFL teams are hesitant to sign running backs to massive deals because historically, many of them don't pan out for long after their rookie contracts. This is unfortunately the case for a lot of players that see a substantial number of touches right away.
There are some examples of RBs playing really well on a second contract.
Derrick Henry and Jamaal Charles come to mind.
But those two players had something in common:
They each had less than 865 touches in the first four years of their careers.
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) July 17, 2023
Through four seasons and 12 games, Jacobs has received 1,487 touches. This is the eighth-most among active running backs, and all seven players with more than Jacobs have been in the NFL for at least two additional seasons. Jacobs has been given over 100 more opportunities than Ekeler and James Conner, both of whom have appeared in more games.
Jacobs is a difference-making player that can definitely help a team win. In addition to his work on the ground, he has proven throughout his career to be a highly capable pass-catcher. Truthfully, though, it's rare for running backs who have accumulated this level of volume to sustain it for years to come.
Teams that don't have a shot at competing this year should certainly look to move Jacobs, while contenders should determine how essential he is to their roster. Because the running back position is so volatile in dynasty leagues, it's never a bad idea to tier down and pick up additional assets when possible.
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