Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Dynasty Startup ADP Arbitrage - Patrick Mahomes vs Baker Mayfield


A couple of big hitters to look at today. Young, talented and to some, brash. Both have supreme confidence but show it in different ways. Patrick Mahomes is coming off one of the greatest seasons of all-time for a player at the quarterback position. 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns is perfection by almost every measure. With Tyreek Hill officially back, he has all of his weapons in tow and he could have another remarkable season in Kansas City as they try to win their first Super Bowl.

Baker Mayfield is not everyone’s cup of tea. But he is talented nonetheless. His 27 touchdowns in only 13 games beat the previous rookie record for touchdowns held by Peyton Manning. With Odell Beckham Jr. entering the lineup across from Jarvis Landry this offense is set to explode much like the Chiefs offense did last season. If another quarterback gets close to 50 touchdowns this season, Baker Mayfield has a chance to be the one to do it.

Both of these players come at a high cost in dynasty startup drafts. Mahomes is going in the third round while Baker Mayfield is not far behind in the sixth. If you are really gutsy and want to make people like JJ Zachariason angry, you could draft both of them. Realistically, you're going to have to choose which young QB to rely on for the years to come.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Pat Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

QB1 | Pick 2.12

The Golden Boy. The best thing since sliced bread. Say whatever you want about him, he was great last season. With weapons galore coming back, he looks to be here for the long haul.

With Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce on the field along with the potential breakout of Damien Williams at running back, it is hard to point to someone else as the choice as QB1 this season.

The steep price is where you have to figure out your comfort level. Currently going as the last pick of the second round of dynasty drafts, you are giving up on a lot of value. Value which is better spent on more important positions such as wide receiver or running back. Immediately following Mahomes in ADP are Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, Adam Thielen and Kerryon Johnson. All of these players are relatively young starters at their positions. All of these players also provide top-10 potential for fantasy owners. In a game where the difference a quarterback can make is not earth-shattering compared to hitting on a receiver or elite back, all of these players should be considered before taking Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes was far and away the best quarterback in 2018. Quarterbacks score more than other positions. But all quarterbacks on average score more than their counterparts at other positions. This means even the quarterback 2- will score more than the WR 20 or RB 20. So, whether you get the QB one or QB 20 you are making out points wise. This means going for the higher upside positional players makes a lot more sense than the elite quarterback.

If Mahomes drops to the fifth or sixth round? Grab him for sure. But at the price of a top 10 receiver or running back? Wait a while longer. Please.

 

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

QB6 Pick 6.05

Unlike Patrick Mahomes, who can only regress off last season’s stats, Mayfield is going to improve on his. Not only did he only play in 13 games last season, he also has new weapons to use in the offense.

Odell Beckham Jr. joins the team as the WR1, replacing Jarvis Landry in the role. This not only gives Mayfield a higher-end WR1 than even Tyreek Hill is in Kansas City, it also gives him a better, more reliable WR2 in Cleveland. Sammy Watkins can be good. We have seen it in college. But he has failed to live up to his hype in the NFL due to lingering foot injuries. Listening to the Pat Fitzmaurice podcast this week, it was brought up that Sammy Watkins looks like a 32-year old receiver in the body of a 25-year old. This is true and it means he is not going to age well.

On the other hand, Jarvis Landry has yet to miss a game in his NFL career and even in a bad season for him last season, he still had 81 receptions for 976 yards. After four years in which he made the Pro Bowl and averaged 100 receptions and 1,009 receiving yards, this “down season” is still better than many number one or two receivers on other teams. Moving back to his preferred role in the slot, he will again find traction and get close to his career averages with the razor-accurate Baker Mayfield throwing him the ball.

Keeping Duke Johnson, at least until Kareem Hunt returns to the lineup is a big deal. In 2017, he was the RB12 in PPR leagues and with Nick Chubb not known as a pass-catcher, his ability in this area will be invaluable. He could have another top-20 fantasy season and perhaps make Kareem Hunt an afterthought.

All of these weapons and Baker Mayfield is a much better pick at his current price of the fifth pick of the sixth round than that of Patrick Mahomes. Whereas you would be passing up elite top-10 receivers like Diggs, Thielen and Allen for Mahomes the same cannot be said for Mayfield. Players going near him in ADP are a who's who of injury concerns and playing time battles. Players like Will Fuller, Christian Kirk, Hunter Henry and Mark Ingram.

 

Verdict

This seems simple. Pat Mahomes is going to regress. Baker Mayfield is going to progress. At the end of the season, the stats could be very similar in both camps. So, you have to ask yourself, if Mayfield and Mahomes finish back to back in the rankings, something which clearly could happen, would you rather have the potential QB1 or QB2 and Stefon Diggs, or Keenan Allen? Or would you rather have the potential QB1 or QB2 and Christian Kirk or Mark Ingram? The answer seems pretty clear.

More ADP Showdown Articles




More Recent Articles

 

Waiver Wire Express - Week 16 Lightning Round

After injuries destroyed many a playoff hope in Week 14, we saw some heroes rise from the ashes to guide us through Week 15. Still, injuries to Dalvin Cook, Chris Godwin and others would keep the medical industry afloat as the season winds down. There's no shortage of waiver action heading into the traditional FF... Read More


Fantasy Football News and Injuries - Running Updates

Below is a quick-hit list of running notes on relevant injuries and player news, including pre-game reports and live in-game updates. Stay tuned for updates all throughout the week and on Sunday morning game day:   Week 15 David Njoku is a surprise inactive for Week 15. Chris Godwin has been ruled out with a hamstring... Read More


Fantasy Football Mailbag - Q&A for Week 15

This article's content may vary week-to-week, but generally, it will be answering questions fielded from either the @RotoBallerNFL twitter account or my personal one (@RotoSurgeon). This week, the focus is on start/sit questions, and there were plenty. Every week, many of us struggle with which quarterback to start, or who to flex, and I am... Read More


Week 15 Chat - Live Fantasy Football Game Day Q&A

It's Sunday Morning Week 15... Do You Know Who to Start? Each Sunday morning of the NFL season, RotoBaller's experts will be moderating the industry's leading live chat room and answering a bunch of your fantasy football questions, from around 10:30 AM to 1:00 PM ET. Come join in on the fun, and get your... Read More


Updated Week 15 PPR Rankings (Top 300)

Welcome to Week 15 RotoBallers. Below are our updated consensus Week 15 PPR rankings for fantasy football, including some running notes on relevant injuries, player news and rankings updates: David Njoku is a surprise inactive for Week 15. Bo Scarbrough has officially been ruled out. Josh Jacobs (shoulder) is expected to suit up and should be... Read More


Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Matchups Analysis for Week 15

Welcome to our Week 15 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering every single contest from the Sunday slate in one convenient location, helping you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries and other... Read More


Wide Receiver Matchups To Target In Week 15

In Week 14, DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas were the high-end options that came through with solid performances, both finishing in the top-five even though they had fairly tough matchups. A.J. Brown finished as the No. 1 receiver on the week, scoring two touchdowns off of just seven targets, while Darius Slayton and Emmanuel Sanders... Read More


Week 15 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


Fantasy Football Booms, Busts - Kenny Golladay, Kenyan Drake, James White

If there was ever a week to have more booms than busts in your fantasy football lineup, it’s this week. The playoffs are either underway or about to start in fantasy football leagues across the nation and around the world. If you are lucky enough to be the proud owner of a playoff team, then... Read More


Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Week 15

Welcome to Week 15, RotoBallers! Below you will find some of my spotlight plays and tough lineup decisions for the upcoming week of the fantasy football playoffs. These player selections are based on my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller's NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a... Read More


NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 15) - Targets and Avoids

Week 13 was a pretty chalky one with just three underdogs winning outright. The biggest upset was the Broncos absolutely annihilating the Houston Texans who were still celebrating their "Super Bowl" win against the Patriots the week prior. Three weeks remain and I'd be a fool to think there are hundreds who are reading this... Read More


Woos and Boos - Starts and Sits for Week 15 Lineups

The trend of fresh faces being among the tops of the fantasy scoring leaderboard continued in Week 14. Across the skill positions, we saw players that took advantage of plus matchups and excelled for fantasy owners during the first week of the playoffs. Mitchell Trubisky and Drew Lock came out of nowhere to finish inside... Read More


Week 15-16 Playoff Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Still doing things a little differently this week--for those of you who are still alive. I want to take a look at the playoffs as a whole (and in this case we are considering Weeks 14-16) and determine which DSTs you can ride all the way through and which ones you should stream this week.... Read More


Week 15 Stream Team - Free Agent and Bye-Week Streamers

Now that the playoffs are in full swing in most leagues and the final march for a championship has begun, streaming becomes a  necessary strategy. Knowing who to add and when to start them could be the ultimate difference-maker in a weekly matchup. Making the right streaming decisions could easily be the difference in winning... Read More


Week 15 Panic Room: Outlooks for Slumping and Injured Players

As you set your Week 15 fantasy football playoff lineups, there may be some players who make you feel very uncomfortable about starting them. Based on recent lackluster performances, injuries, or just an intangible bad vibe, it's a struggle to insert them into your lineup in a do-or-die week. But you may also nervous be... Read More