X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

Dynasty Startup ADP Arbitrage - Patrick Mahomes vs Baker Mayfield

Pat Mahomes and Baker Mayfield are two of the top fantasy quarterbacks in dynasty leagues. Dominick Petrillo analyzes each QB based on startup draft ADP to determine who is the better value.

A couple of big hitters to look at today. Young, talented and to some, brash. Both have supreme confidence but show it in different ways. Patrick Mahomes is coming off one of the greatest seasons of all-time for a player at the quarterback position. 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns is perfection by almost every measure. With Tyreek Hill officially back, he has all of his weapons in tow and he could have another remarkable season in Kansas City as they try to win their first Super Bowl.

Baker Mayfield is not everyone’s cup of tea. But he is talented nonetheless. His 27 touchdowns in only 13 games beat the previous rookie record for touchdowns held by Peyton Manning. With Odell Beckham Jr. entering the lineup across from Jarvis Landry this offense is set to explode much like the Chiefs offense did last season. If another quarterback gets close to 50 touchdowns this season, Baker Mayfield has a chance to be the one to do it.

Both of these players come at a high cost in dynasty startup drafts. Mahomes is going in the third round while Baker Mayfield is not far behind in the sixth. If you are really gutsy and want to make people like JJ Zachariason angry, you could draft both of them. Realistically, you're going to have to choose which young QB to rely on for the years to come.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Pat Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

QB1 | Pick 2.12

The Golden Boy. The best thing since sliced bread. Say whatever you want about him, he was great last season. With weapons galore coming back, he looks to be here for the long haul.

With Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce on the field along with the potential breakout of Damien Williams at running back, it is hard to point to someone else as the choice as QB1 this season.

The steep price is where you have to figure out your comfort level. Currently going as the last pick of the second round of dynasty drafts, you are giving up on a lot of value. Value which is better spent on more important positions such as wide receiver or running back. Immediately following Mahomes in ADP are Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, Adam Thielen and Kerryon Johnson. All of these players are relatively young starters at their positions. All of these players also provide top-10 potential for fantasy owners. In a game where the difference a quarterback can make is not earth-shattering compared to hitting on a receiver or elite back, all of these players should be considered before taking Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes was far and away the best quarterback in 2018. Quarterbacks score more than other positions. But all quarterbacks on average score more than their counterparts at other positions. This means even the quarterback 2- will score more than the WR 20 or RB 20. So, whether you get the QB one or QB 20 you are making out points wise. This means going for the higher upside positional players makes a lot more sense than the elite quarterback.

If Mahomes drops to the fifth or sixth round? Grab him for sure. But at the price of a top 10 receiver or running back? Wait a while longer. Please.

 

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

QB6 Pick 6.05

Unlike Patrick Mahomes, who can only regress off last season’s stats, Mayfield is going to improve on his. Not only did he only play in 13 games last season, he also has new weapons to use in the offense.

Odell Beckham Jr. joins the team as the WR1, replacing Jarvis Landry in the role. This not only gives Mayfield a higher-end WR1 than even Tyreek Hill is in Kansas City, it also gives him a better, more reliable WR2 in Cleveland. Sammy Watkins can be good. We have seen it in college. But he has failed to live up to his hype in the NFL due to lingering foot injuries. Listening to the Pat Fitzmaurice podcast this week, it was brought up that Sammy Watkins looks like a 32-year old receiver in the body of a 25-year old. This is true and it means he is not going to age well.

On the other hand, Jarvis Landry has yet to miss a game in his NFL career and even in a bad season for him last season, he still had 81 receptions for 976 yards. After four years in which he made the Pro Bowl and averaged 100 receptions and 1,009 receiving yards, this “down season” is still better than many number one or two receivers on other teams. Moving back to his preferred role in the slot, he will again find traction and get close to his career averages with the razor-accurate Baker Mayfield throwing him the ball.

Keeping Duke Johnson, at least until Kareem Hunt returns to the lineup is a big deal. In 2017, he was the RB12 in PPR leagues and with Nick Chubb not known as a pass-catcher, his ability in this area will be invaluable. He could have another top-20 fantasy season and perhaps make Kareem Hunt an afterthought.

All of these weapons and Baker Mayfield is a much better pick at his current price of the fifth pick of the sixth round than that of Patrick Mahomes. Whereas you would be passing up elite top-10 receivers like Diggs, Thielen and Allen for Mahomes the same cannot be said for Mayfield. Players going near him in ADP are a who's who of injury concerns and playing time battles. Players like Will Fuller, Christian Kirk, Hunter Henry and Mark Ingram.

 

Verdict

This seems simple. Pat Mahomes is going to regress. Baker Mayfield is going to progress. At the end of the season, the stats could be very similar in both camps. So, you have to ask yourself, if Mayfield and Mahomes finish back to back in the rankings, something which clearly could happen, would you rather have the potential QB1 or QB2 and Stefon Diggs, or Keenan Allen? Or would you rather have the potential QB1 or QB2 and Christian Kirk or Mark Ingram? The answer seems pretty clear.

More ADP Showdown Articles




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
Jameson Williams

Records Long Touchdown in Week 2, Still Limited to Downfield Role?
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Jayden Daniels

Considered "Day-to-Day" with Knee Injury
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Exits with Back Tightness
Jonathan Taylor

Tops 200 Yards From Scrimmage in Week 2 Win
Joe Burrow

Could Miss Three Months if he Requires Toe Surgery
Davante Adams

Headlines Rams Receiving Corps Sunday
Wan'Dale Robinson

Explodes for 142 Yards, Touchdown in Overtime Thriller
Joe Flacco

Browns Not Considering Benching Joe Flacco After Week 2
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Lamar Jackson

Throws for Four Touchdowns in Week 2 Win
James Cook

Scores Two Touchdowns in Rout of Jets
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Rome Odunze

Scores Twice in Loss
Ja'Marr Chase

Snags 14 Receptions, Finds End Zone in Week 2
Russell Wilson

Throws for 450 Yards, Three Touchdowns in Loss
Jared Goff

Throws Five Touchdowns
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Scores Three Touchdowns
Joe Burrow

Suffers Turf Toe and Torn Ligaments in Win
Malik Nabers

Explodes for Two Touchdowns in Overtime Thriller
Joe Burrow

Seen with Boot and Crutches Postgame
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
Justin Fields

Diagnosed With Concussion Sunday
Tyrod Taylor

Justin Fields Evaluated for Concussion, Tyrod Taylor Enters Game
Joe Burrow

Ruled Out for Remainder of Week 2 With Toe Injury
Joe Burrow

Questionable to Return in Week 2 with Toe Injury
Luis Arraez

Takes a Seat on Sunday With Head Injury
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Activated, Starting on Sunday
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
Bryan Woo

Records Career-High 13 Strikeouts
Max Muncy

Exits Early on Saturday
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Salvador Perez

Reaches 300 Home Runs, 1,000 RBI
Jose Altuve

Exits Early With Foot Discomfort
Trey Yesavage

Heading to Big Leagues
Will Smith

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
Ryan Preece

Seems Slower on Concrete Than on Asphalt
NASCAR

Legacy Motor Club's Short-Track Speed Will Likely Hold John H. Nemechek Back
Erik Jones

Definitely Faster This Year, but Short Tracks Still a Liability
Daniel Suarez

Despite Poor Qualifying Run, Daniel Suarez Might Not Be a Great Choice
Noah Gragson

Unlikely to Be Fast at Bristol but Still Might Be Worth Considering for DFS
Tarik Skubal

Avoids Serious Injury, Expected to Make Next Start
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
Tanner Bibee

Fans 10 in Two-Hit Shutout
Zach Neto

Dealing With Wrist Soreness
Masyn Winn

Shut Down for Rest of Season
Tarik Skubal

to Undergo Imaging on Saturday
Tyler Soderstrom

Scratched on Friday With Groin Tightness
Tarik Skubal

Exits with Side Tightness
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
Ketel Marte

Scratched From Friday's Lineup
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Kyle Tucker

"Unlikely" to Return When Eligible on Tuesday
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Ketel Marte

Expected to Return on Friday
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Alexander Hernandez

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Quang Le

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Card Opener
Santiago Luna

Set For His Debut At Noche UFC 3
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
Charles Oliveira

Not Eyeing Retirement
CFB

Ryan Williams Expected to Play Against Wisconsin
CFB

Billy Edwards Jr. Unlikely to Play on Saturday
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Questionable to Make Debut Against Georgia
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa
Kristaps Porzingis

Reportedly Still Not Completely Healthy
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Reportedly on the Trade Block
Andre Drummond

Future in Philadelphia in Doubt
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Posts Historic Triple-Double
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For 15 at Wyndham Championship
Bud Cauley

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied for Seventh at Tour Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 25th at Tour Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 19th at Tour Championship
Keith Mitchell

Misses Cut at Wyndham Championship
Ben Griffin

Finishes Tied for 10th at Tour Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for Second at Tour Championship
Gary Woodland

Could Hang Around at Procore Championship
Karl Vilips

Ready for Napa Valley This Weekend
Taylor Montgomery

Heating Up at the Right Time
Jackson Koivun

May Be a Little Rusty at Procore Championship
Doug Ghim

Looking to Rise Up at Napa Valley
Josh Giddey

Re-Signs With Bulls for Four Years
Shakir Mukhamadullin

Joins Informal Skate
William Eklund

Skates With Sharks
Owen Power

Back at 100 Percent
Tyler Seguin

Cleared for Action
Mathew Barzal

Good to Go for Season Opener
Dustin Wolf

Signs Seven-Year Extension
NBA

Mason Jones Takes His Talents to Australia
NBA

Talen Horton-Tucker Joins Reigning EuroLeague Champions
Malcolm Brogdon

on Knicks' Radar
Andrew Wiggins

Attracting Interest From Lakers

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP