DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - Valero Texas Open Golf Advice (2023)

March 27, 2023

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The Valero Texas Open. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Valero Texas Open

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Valero Link

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

• Join the community! There you will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with me.

TeeOffSports membership

• $149.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
• You can also try things out for $9.99 per week.

Field

Field Size: 144 Players
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Top 25 Entrants: 2

Last Five Winners Of TPC San Antonio

Expected Cut-Line

TPC San Antonio

7,435 Yards - Par 72 - Bermuda Greens (Overseeded With Bent/Poa)

When the Valero Texas Open got moved to the week before the Masters, we saw the strength of the event decrease to being one of the weaker stops on tour. It likely doesn't take a rocket scientist to correlate players wanting a break before the first major of the year and the reduced quality teeing it up this week, although a big brunt of that answer comes down to the hidden difficulty of the track.

Designed in 2010 by Greg Norman, TPC San Antonio Oaks is a lengthy Par 72 property that vaguely mimics next week's major but does so in a unique fashion that generates its own flair for the dramatics. We see those ramifications come into play immediately, with around the green producing 3.3% more impact on scoring than a typical stop on tour. That particular factor, mixed with a seven percent decrease in GIR percentage, helps to make the layout one of the more demanding major preps on the schedule.

Six of the most challenging holes at the course stretch between 410-481 yards, creating what theoretically should produce a condensed second shot yardage. However, it is essential to note that no proximity range is wildly more impactful than the next. We see that come to fruition with each 25-yard bucket from 100 yards and beyond yielding over a 10% expected output rate.

Overall, a complete display of ball-striking, tee-to-green data, past TPC performances, GIR percentage, par-five scoring and weighted par-four will make up the beginning of my model. And despite wind calculations being something I will look into marginally, big scores are lurking in even the calmest conditions -- just ask Kevin Na in 2011 after he carded his infamous 16. Some say this course might be why he is now on the LIV Tour. I can neither confirm nor deny.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model. (You can see only the 2023 season when you make a copy).

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (30%)

Strokes Gained Total Wind (7.5%)

Strokes Gained Total TPC (10%)

Strokes Gained Total 7,400+ (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Total Driving (10%)

Weighted GIR (12.5%)

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

Early thoughts on the group:  We have four of the top five players in my model directly located in this $10,000+ section. There are questions to be asked about Hideki Matsuyama's health, but I'd prefer to let some of those things be answered leading up to Thursday before locking in a player pool. As always, ownership will be the great decider on the optimal route for us to consider.

Options In Pool On Monday. Names Will Become Further Condensed Throughout The Week: If you forced me to pick right now, my favorite play would likely be Tyrrell Hatton because of the leverage he is creating as the top-priced option on the board, but but everyone is still included as a potential path to consider. Not much we can do until more information enters the market. 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Early thoughts on the group:  Davis Riley is the first name to make my "not playing list." There is negative leverage in all ways I ran my model, and his shaky around the green game and output in the wind should be considered alarming trends that I don't want to become invested in for the Valero.

From there, narrowing this pool further on Monday is much more challenging. Taylor Montgomery looks like an early pivot away from much chalkier choices around him. My model likes his scoring potential for TPC San Antonio, but the GIR percentage will always be the potential undoing. Si Woo Kim is the top-ranked player on my sheet, although the public has followed suit with his nearly 25% early ownership total. That should regress over the next few days since the first iteration of my returns will always be overly aggressive to indicate where the market is at early in the process, but it is worth keeping an eye on since I would like to find a way to gain exposure. And then we have Chris Kirk, Matt Kuchar and Ryan Fox -- three golfers with top 12 overall rank retrievals in my sheet but are middling in the advantage we are getting if we play them. I'd assume one is 100% getting cut, but that answer will come with more information.

Options In Pool On Monday. Names Will Become Further Condensed Throughout The Week: Si Woo Kim, Taylor Montgomery, Chris Kirk, Matt Kuchar and Ryan Fox. It is never 100% ideal when only one golfer (Davis Riley) can be eliminated on a Monday.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Early thoughts on the group: Alex Noren is in one of those spots where the price tag is arguably too high for the form he is bringing to the table, but the lack of public intrigue has to make him enticing. It is important to remember that he is a coin flip for his odds with any other player in this group. Ben Griffin is likely going to be the most popular choice in this range. Let's see where that percentage trends because he has tons of playability if the total can drop some over the next 48 hours. And let's see where ownership moves for the likes of Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Cameron Davis. Davis, where he stands, is almost unplayable because of the volatility, but the upside numbers do love his potential. Bezuidenhout has the opposite situation occuring, where most gamers seem to be going elsewhere. I would bite if things stay the same.

Options In Pool On Monday. Names Will Become Further Condensed Throughout The Week: J.J. Spaun, Alex Noren, Ben Griffin, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Thomas Detry, Cameron Davis and Davis Thompson

I am mostly 100% out on everyone else (barring something unforeseen). I'd also like to get that list above condensed to two or three names by Wednesday night.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

The list removes all players outside the top 65 in overall or upside rank + negative totals against their DraftKings price, upside, and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days. (Anyone -10 spots or higher in ownership got removed to condense this list). We can make changes in the Final DraftKings article to account for new information.

That is obviously a massive group of names for us to whittle down and consider over these next few days.

Where it stands right now, my model likes Brendon Todd, Robby Shelton, Nick Taylor, Alex Smalley, Eric Cole and Joseph Bramlett more than the rest of the group.

Ownership is still too early into the week to take much from those percentages above, but we will get that entire list down more on Wednesday.

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

All the players below were inside the top 60 in one of the two iterations of my sheet and positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete field breakdown, but this condensed things nicely as a first run. (anyone -10 spots or higher in ownership got removed to condense this list).

We will condense this list further as the week progresses, but we have a handful of interesting dart throws from those names. I don't want to remove too many options from that list early since ownership will be a big factor for leverage. Also, please note that some of the numbers are being driven by limited data.

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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt

— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020

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