RADIO
Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the Shriners Children's Open on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Shriners Children's Open
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
TPC Summerlin
7,251 Yards - Par 71 - Greens: Bentgrass
Measuring in as a 7,251-yard par-71, Bobby Weed masterminded TPC Summerlin on the rugged desert terrain in 1991, with Fuzzy Zoeller serving as his consultant. Beautiful Las Vegas scenery encompasses a venue that meanders through arroyos and canyons, but for what you get aesthetically from a visual perspective, you do lose on the opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to difficulty.
The last four iterations of this contest have produced right around a 23-under winning total, and while you might notice a nine-under-par outlier in 2017, I would bypass that event from a modeling perspective since heavy winds ravaged the outcome of the tournament. In fairness, gusts are always prevalent in Vegas, and the wind will come and go throughout the day, but it appears unlikely we will get any substantial amount this week to change the feel of the setup. Let's see if that holds accurate before lineups lock on Thursday, but it has been an extremely subdued last few days near the course (I live 15 minutes away).
As I have noted in the past, birdie shootouts can sometimes provide a headache for us numerically when we try to put together our research for the week, but the thing I like about this track is that despite it being one of the most accessible stops players will get all season, the scoring dispersion marks for putting tend to be at (or below) PGA Tour expectation. That means golfers that can take advantage of their tee-to-green game should have an advantage over the field, and there seems to have been a shift at the course once they redid a combined 102 bunkers in 2018. It hasn't equated to a more challenging time scoring, and if anything, it maybe has somehow made it easier, but it has caused a shift from the long-term totals that we might be able to take advantage of for anyone using too long of a sample size. We can talk about this course a little more when I get into the key stats below, but consider this a straightforward test that does reward a solid tee-to-green skillset.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | TPC Summerlin | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 296 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 60% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 72% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 55% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.51 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
Weighted T2G (20%)
SG: Total TPC (12.5%)
SG: Total Easy Courses (12.5%)
70% Bentgrass Total + 30% Bentgrass Putting (10%)
Weighted Par-Three + Weighted Par-Four (15%)
Weighted Short Par-Four + Weighted Par-Five (20%)
Scramble + Sand Save (10%)
I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are three players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
Early thoughts on the group:
Patrick Cantlay ($11,100) -We have seen that rollover course predictability has historically been highly measurable at TPC Summerlin, which will present us with one of those situations where the "chalk choices" are likely not only being correctly taken but are hard to avoid. Let's see where popularity trends over the next few days before locking in someone near the top of the board, but there are a plethora of reasons Patrick Cantlay grades as the man to beat on my model.
We have seen the American finish inside the top-eight at the track during his past four trips, including a victory in 2017 and back-to-back runner-ups in 2018 and 2019, and it is easy to understand why when we dive deeper into the statistical domination he is experiencing inside my model. Cantlay ranks first in par-four and par-five recalculation, and he also places at the top of the board in Bentgrass scoring and strokes gained total on easy courses. His "power grade" on my sheet is one of the strongest I have encountered in some time, so while the ownership is going to be hefty, I have a hard time getting myself to look elsewhere.
Max Homa ($10,600) - If you remove ownership projections, it is hard to make an argument for Max Homa over either of his $10,000 counterparts, but I am interested to see where we are trending come Wednesday afternoon. Cantlay and Im are probably -150 or better when directly comparing Homa versus the two, but the possibility that we might be able to get him at one-fourth the popularity is worth keeping in our back pocket for consideration.
The Presidents Cup stud has missed his last four cuts at the track since 2014, but it is hard to argue against him being the best version of himself we have ever seen heading into the 2022 iteration of the event. Homa will look to carry the momentum of the Presidents Cup and his victory at the Fortinet Championship into a better showing this go-around in Vegas.
Sungjae Im ($10,400) - There is not a category I ran where Sungjae Im ranked outside the top 20 of the field, and there is no performance we have gotten out of him at TPC Summerlin where he has come worse than 15th. That is an impressive combination for a golfer that should have been the second-highest priced golfer on the board, according to my model, and we see similar sentiments out of Vegas - where Im places five points above Homa at 11/1 odds.
I initially rank the group in the expected order of Cantlay, Im and Homa, but as I said earlier, let's see where ownership goes before locking in a decision up top.
As of Monday:
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
Aaron Wise ($9,900) - I've noted it several times on Twitter leading up to the event, but Aaron Wise's home course is TPC Summerlin. Unfortunately, that will enhance the ownership projection in a spot where I wish it wouldn't since Wise is an ideal fit for the venue, even when we ignore the comfortability on the track.
We see that with the Oregon product ranking inside the top five for weighted short par-four and par-five scoring, weighted par-three, weighted tee-to-green and strokes gained total on easy courses, and while the putting splits are always somewhat concerning, he is near his baseline totals on Bentgrass and is placing 13th in the field over his last 24 rounds. That combination leads me to believe a high-end finish might be just around the corner, and TPC Summerlin could make him feel right at home.
Tom Kim ($9,700) - I can't find much that I don't like about Tom Kim. He is one of the only guys in the field, if not the only, who can't party in Vegas because of his age. That is a positive to keep his head in the game, and while I joke about that being a concern of mine for anyone at the Shriners, the metrics continue to increase for him each time I run my model.
Par-five scoring used to be a red flag category, but we now have that inside the top 30. Maybe you could point to the scrambling metrics for an issue that could creep into play, but if we are measuring TPC Summerlin as anything other than a track that predominately looks for scoring chances, we are probably going in the wrong route of handicapping.
Taylor Montgomery ($9,500) - Typically, I wouldn't say I like these homecoming spots for young golfers. We have seen a player like Xander Schauffele take some time getting used to performing in front of his home crowd at Torrey Pines, and as I alluded to about Aaron Wise in a slightly different fashion, it usually generates an increase in DFS ownership when a golfer is linked to the city or venue.
I like the statistics behind Taylor Montgomery, and the course does feel like an ideal setup for his skillset, but I am still on the fence about how I will deploy him in Vegas. There is so much ownership concentrated in this upper pocket from Cameron Davis (and above) that someone has to be cut from the player pool if we want to try and create any form of leverage. You can check back into my Wednesday article here at RotoBaller to see if Montgomery makes the cut, but consider it a 50/50 proposition on Monday.
Emiliano Grillo ($9,300) -I believe I have become the Emiliano Grillo grouch of the industry. I will say that last week was the first time in a while that I was indifferent to using him, and we did see him generate a top-five result, so chalk one up for me being willing to roster him when he did meet expectation levels, but I am shifting back to the curmudgeon that I am when it involves the 30-year-old.
I want to be clear that I am not predicting a missed cut, and there are plenty of golfers $8,900 or above that have more "missed cut equity" than we would get from Grillo, but I question what the upside is at this point of his career. I can live with one of his random 37th-place showings, where he goes off as a top-five owned golfer on the slate.
Cam Davis ($9,200) - I first need to figure out what a condensed player pool looks like for the Shriners Open before locking in choices, but I wouldn't be shocked if the decision inevitably comes down to Cameron Davis or Taylor Montgomery as my final higher exposure pick this week.
I like Davis' distance and weighted proximity marks - two totals that somewhat mimic Matthew Wolff - a golfer that has found past success at the course, but it will likely be an ownership game. I lean Montgomery if all things are equal because the floor feels higher, but Davis not making my player pool would have more to do with the price tag and ownership than any negative feelings about his potential. The upside is noteworthy and genuine.
Alex Noren ($9,100) - We have heard the narrative in the space so many times about how Alex Noren doesn't generate his best results at birdie fests, although are we sure that is true? Noren ranks sixth in this field at easy scoring courses and third in historical TPC success, and even if the par-five scoring does leave a ton to be desired, the short game is pristine enough for him to clean up some of the long iron woes. Sure, we don't necessarily want to target golfers tanking with their approach shots, but I am not opposed to taking a flier when the entire industry believes he is overpriced, providing this under-owned projection.
Tom Hoge ($9,000) - I'll keep it simple. I like the upside, but I'd rather pivot to a Noren or Pendrith because of Hoge's volatility.
As of Monday:
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
I always try to be cautious in the $8,000 and below ranges until more information enters the market since a change in ownership can quickly shift my mindset on or off a golfer. I anticipate Taylor Pendrith being the one I am locked and loaded on for the week, but let's play it by ear until Wednesday's piece.
As of Monday:
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
The list removes all players outside the top-60 in overall or upside rank + negative totals against their DraftKings price, upside and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days.
*** The names showing would be my early leans that I am going to take a deeper dive on over the next few days.
Some of my favorites on that list would be: Mark Hubbard ($7,400), Andrew Putnam ($7,300), Adam Hadwin ($7,700), Chris Kirk ($7,300), Mito Pereira ($7,800), Matt Kuchar ($7,600), Adam Svensson ($7,200), Seamus Power ($7,600) and K.H Lee ($7,700)
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
All the players below were inside the top-65 in one of the two iterations and positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete field breakdown, but this condensed things nicely as a first run.
Early Lean For Favorite Player in Each Range:
$10,000 - Patrick Cantlay ($11,100)
$9,000 - Aaron Wise ($9,900)
$8,000 - Taylor Pendrith ($8,700)
$7,000 - TBD
$6,000 - Michael Gligic ($6,900)
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