RADIO
DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 103: Kape vs. Almabayev on 3/1/25. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
The UFC is back at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas for the promotion’s next fight card, UFC Vegas 103, which takes place on Saturday, March 1. For the second time in two weeks, we have a fight card that's changed by injuries and cancellations. Outside of a few intriguing matchups, the UFC Vegas 103 card might be the worst cards the UFC has ever put on in recent memory.
The main event features a flyweight matchup between Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev. In the co-main event, we have Cody Brundage facing off against Julian Marquez at middleweight. Danny Barlow and Sam Patterson are set to open up the main card. Also on the main card, Nasrat Haqparast takes on always dangerous Esteban Ribovics in a lightweight bout.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 103: Kape vs. Almabayev on 3/1/25. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!
DraftKings MMA Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Manel Kape, $9,000 - vs. Asu Almabayev
UFC flyweights Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev are scheduled to fight in the main event of UFC Vegas 103 on Saturday. Kape is on a 5-1 run with the promotion while Almabayev has won all four of his fights in the UFC.
3, 2, 1, ACTION 📸#UFCVegas103 is one day closer to taking place! 🫡 pic.twitter.com/kij7KX10dE
— UFC (@ufc) February 27, 2025
Kape was originally scheduled to meet Brandon Royval in a potential flyweight title eliminator before Royval suffered an injury and was forced to pull out. The 31-year-old Angolan-born fighter got back in the win column in his last fight by scoring a third-round TKO win over Bruno Silva.
Known as a striker, Kape usually wins his fights by knockout or technical knockout, accounting for 60 percent of his career total. In his UFC career, Kape has defeated Silva, Felipe dos Santos, David Dvorak, Zhalgas Zhumagulov, and Ode Osbourne. His only loss in the promotion is to Muhammad Mokaev.
Almabayev was originally set to fight Allan Nascimento at UFC Vegas 103 before he shifted to the main event. The 31-year-old Kazakhstani fighter finds himself on a remarkable 17-fight winning streak. He was last seen in action at UFC Vegas 99, where he outpointed Matheus Nicolau to win a unanimous decision. Known as a grappler, Almabayev has nine victories by submission, accounting for 43 percent of his career total.
Kape enters this fight with an MMA record of 20-7 and is 5-3 in the UFC. He is averaging 5.05 strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 56 percent. Kape is absorbing 4.15 strikes per minute and his striking defense is 58 percent. In regards to his grappling, Kape is averaging just 0.47 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 33 percent and a takedown defense of 77 percent.
Almabayev enters this fight as the underdog with an MMA record of 21-2 and 4-0 in the UFC. He is averaging 2.11 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 56 percent. Almabayev is absorbing 1.02 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 59 percent. His grappling has been elite, averaging 5.05 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.9 submission attempts during the same period. Almabayev has a takedown accuracy of 50 percent and takedown defense of 50 percent.
This is a classic “Striker vs. Wrestler” matchup. Kape is solid everywhere and has no glaring weaknesses, but the same could be said for Almabayev. I think Kape is going to do well at defending Almabayev’s takedowns this Saturday.
Against Nicolau, Almabayev went just 1-6 on takedowns, although he had a lot of success on the feet, almost stopping Nicolau with his striking. I have a feeling this fight will stay on the feet, and if it does, I see Kape winning via unanimous decision or even via knockout.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Esteban Ribovics, $9,100 - vs. Nasrat Haqparast
Esteban Ribovics is scheduled to take on Nasrat Haqparast on the main card of UFC Vegas 103 on Saturday. Both fighters will look to extend their winning streak, Ribovics to four and Haqparast to five.
Ribovics is coming off a “Fight of the Year” contender at UFC 306, where he edged Daniel Zellhuber via split decision in an entertaining slugfest. After losing his debut fight to Loik Radzhabov, Ribovics has gone 3-0 with wins over Kamuela Kirk, Terrance McKinney, and Zellhuber this past September. Ribovics is a more active wrestler in terms of statistics, but usually, his game plan is to keep opponents guessing by mixing his striking with his wrestling.
Haqparast enters this bout as an underdog with an MMA record of 17-5. He's on a four-fight winning streak with two unanimous decisions and a knockout over his last four fights. He was last seen in action at UFC Saudi Arabia where he managed to defeat Jared Gordon by a split decision. He’s also bested Jamie Mullarkey, Landon Quinones, and John Makdessi during his current winning streak.
Ribovics enters this fight with an MMA record of 14-1 and 3-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 7.53 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48 percent. Ribovics is absorbing 4.95 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 57 percent. In regards to his grappling, Ribovics is averaging 0.64 takedowns every 15 minutes. Ribovics has a takedown accuracy of 66 percent and a takedown defense of 61 percent.
Haqparast enters this fight with an UFC record of 9-4. He is averaging 6.15 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44 percent. Haqparast is absorbing 5.65 strikes and has a striking defense of 62 percent. His grappling ability is limited, averaging just 0.28 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 20 percent and a takedown defense of 84 percent.
I have a feeling this fight is going to be pure chaos. Both Ribovics and Haqparast are durable enough to go the distance. Haqparast has been longer in the UFC and has fought better competition than Ribovics.
This is likely going to be a striking battle. With Haqparast's boxing approach and Ribovics' kickboxing style and their toughness and willingness to stand in the pocket, this fight just might be the fight of the night.
It's hard to pick who's going to win this fight, but I'm going with Ribovics just because he's fresher, younger, and he didn't take as much damage. My prediction is that Ribovics will win this one by unanimous decision.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Mario Pinto, $9,300 - vs. Austen Lane
Mario Pinto is scheduled to take on Austen Lane in the last preliminary bout of UFC Vegas 103 on Saturday. Pinto is making his UFC debut and is looking to stay undefeated while Lane will be looking to win back-to-back fights.
Pinto enters this bout with an undefeated MMA record of 9-0. Pinto earned his UFC contract with an impressive performance on "Dana White's Contender Series" by beating Lucas Camacho via first-round TKO. Prior to that fight, Pinto was the Levels Fight League heavyweight champion and has defended the belt two times. Known for his knockout power, Pinto has won five of his nine bouts via TKO/knockout.
In his last bout, Lane got back in the win column by defeating Robelis Despaigne via unanimous decision. The win was pivotal in maintaining his spot on the roster as Lane was on a two-fight losing streak prior to his last bout, suffering knockout losses to Jhonata Diniz and Justin Tafa. Since joining the UFC in 2023, Lane has gone 1-2-0 with one NC.
Pinto is averaging 8.16 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 93 percent. He is absorbing 4.08 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 61 percent.
Lane enters this fight with an MMA record of 13-5. He is averaging 2.47 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50 percent. Lane is absorbing 2.44 strikes and has a striking defense of 40 percent. In regards to his grappling, Lane is averaging 2.03 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 30 percent.
Lane's best chance is to take Pinto down and hold him there for three rounds and I don't think he can do that to Pinto. Lane did manage to outwrestle Despaigne, but Despaigne's wrestling is horrible, so it's unlikely Lane will find success with it again here. Pinto is undefeated, as he has the speed, power, and striking edge over Lane. My prediction is that Pinto will land a knockout blow in the second or the third round.
