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Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The Genesis Invitational. His under-owned PGA DFS value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.
Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the Genesis Invitational on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and don't miss out on all our top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles produced by the entire RotoBaller squad.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Genesis Invitational
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Riviera Country Club
7,322 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Poa
I don't believe I am overstepping on this comment when I say Pebble Beach, TPC Scottsdale and Riviera Country Club likely present the best consecutive non-major trio of courses we see yearly on tour. You don't have to look any further than the quality of competition that shows up to take on these historical atmospheres and designs, but the icing will be put on the cake for this chef-d'oeuvre run of excellence as we wrap up the trip out at Pacific Palisades for the Genesis Invitational.
Measuring in as a 7,322-yard masterpiece, Riviera Country Club is a Par 71 that plays longer than the yardage might indicate on the scorecard. Most of the distance is hidden with the par-five first and driveable par-four 10th playing substantially shorter than tour average, but that measurement is quickly made up at holes two, 12, 15 and 18, which gives you four of the more difficult par-fours on tour. These behemoths range between a 26.7% and 31.8% bogey or higher rate, but the challenge doesn't stop there, and you quickly see why only 12 golfers have broken a double-digit under-par total over the last four iterations of the event when you dive deeper into the numbers.
The venue is exceptionally tight off the tee, featuring doglegs in both directions and tree-lined fairways where golfers hit the short grass nearly seven percent below a typical tour stop. Sticky Kikuya grass that is used at two locations yearly (here and Torrey Pines) adds to the chaos for those that happen to miss the fairway, and the potential for a flier on your second shot gets enhanced when you consider these greens are lightning quick and result in a GIR percentage that is roughly eight percent below a standard track. When we add to the mix undulation, deep bunkering, experience required to know where you can lay up and putting on quick Poa greens, you start to get an idea of why the best in the world show up as the A-list crowd to try and tackle the city built on stars.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Riviera | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 281 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 55% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 57% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 60% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.64 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
- Weighted Tee-To-Green (25%) - I built a model this week that took the statistical percentages and skewed the information marginally in a direction to heighten certain variables I wanted more weight on in my research. When we exclude putting from the mix altogether, which is how strokes gained tee-to-green becomes a stat, I had individual breakdowns that showed the dispersion of scoring at Riviera coming in at 19.1% around the green, 29.6% approach and 12% off-the-tee. As many of you know by now, I don't love the straightforward approach data and how it is laid out, so I redistributed the proximity totals from 150+ yards - a distance that sees 72.8% of second shots and built a remodified category that incorporated an approach rank where 100% of the irons come where we get the plurality of data. That allowed me to add that rank back into the fray to recombine with my off-the-tee and around-the-green numbers to form a course-specific tee-to-green calculation that highlighted what is needed at Riviera and not just a generic stop.
- Weighted Fast Poa (15%) - Putting matters here, or at least the ability to hit your flat stick on fast Poa matters. These greens are not for everyone, and I looked at a few interchangeable categories to see how golfers have performed on fast Poa over their past 50 rounds. A lot went into breaking this down in the fashion I wanted, but the two main takeaways would be strokes gained putting on fast Poa and strokes gained total on fast Poa. That has been one of my favorite ways to combine and slowly add putting into the mix.
- Strokes Gained Total Difficult/Hard-to-Hit Fairways (12.5%) - I believe this is relatively straightforward. Driving accuracy is seven percent below average at Riviera Country Club, and only 12 golfers have broken into being double-digit under par at the event's conclusion over the last four years. Those two statistics should give us a succinct outlook of players who like this kind of a test.
- Weighted Par-Four (15%) - I reduced some of my importance on approach stats when looking at my remodified tee-to-green weight for two reasons. For starters, around the green is exponentially more impactful here than 99% of courses. I wanted to make sure it got the justice it deserved in my model, but more importantly, I didn't want to overdo it since I added a more significant percentage of mid-to-long iron into the mix when I looked at par-four scoring. This category includes a mixture of par-four averages between 450-500 yards, bogey avoidance and the aforementioned critical proximity distances of 150-200 yards.
- Par-Five Birdie or Better (12.5%) - Consider this to be about the lowest you will see on par-five scoring from me in a model. You lose one of the holes with this being a Par 71, and we also have the par-five first grading as the easiest hole on the course with over a 65% birdie or better rate. There is no reason we shouldn't consider this a long par-four, as scoring averages are on par with six of the longer par-fours at the venue.
- Weighted Short Game (12.5%) - My weighted short game looks at around the green and fast Poa putting (each for a second time) and includes putting from 5-10 feet and three-putt avoidance.
- Sand Save (7.5%) - The bunkering is extensive and deep. There are many ways to calculate scrambling data for the week, but I decided to include this alone and combine everything else into my weighted short game numbers.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000: This is always a first-look of rhte field. Opinions might shift slightly as the week goes on. If you want my opinion on anyone, be sure to hit me up on Twitter.
- Safest Play: Dustin Johnson ($10,200) - Look, you are relatively safe going in most directions when you get up in this $10,000 range. There is probably a little more volatility when you talk about the likes of Collin Morikawa or Justin Thomas, but since Dustin Johnson is the cheapest of the group, let's consider him the most secure option to start cash-game builds with for the week. In his career at Riviera, Johnson has been a superstar at the track, posting 10 top-16 finishes over his 12 attempts, including a 2017 win that came after three top-four results in a row before that performance. Johnson's struggles over the past few months can be attributed to his iron play and par-five scoring, but I like where his game is trending entering the week, gaining 3.8 with his irons at the Farmers Insurance to go along with a top-10 at the Saudi International.
- Most Upside: Jon Rahm ($11,300) - It is the first tournament that I have sensed some red flags for Jon Rahm entering the week in quite a bit. Rahm still grades number one in my model, so please take that comment with a grain of salt, but the around the green game could provide some concerns if the Spaniard cannot hit as many greens as he is accustomed to during his rounds. It is the classic case where none of that matters if Rahm puts on the ball-striking clinic that we are conditioned to expect, but while his upside gives him the best win equity in the field, I'm afraid I have to disagree some with my models' assessment that he is bulletproof.
- Favorite GPP Play: Patrick Cantlay ($11,000) - Make it 31 straight rounds of par or better golf for Patrick Cantlay. That streak will get tested at the brutally tricky Riviera layout, but Cantlay has become one of the most versatile players on tour. I still don't think the ownership has caught up with his overall play, but let's keep an eye on that throughout the week.
- Fade: None - Although I am the lowest on Collin Morikawa ($10,400).
- Most Likely Winner: Justin Thomas ($10,700) - The answer will remain Jon Rahm anytime this question is asked, but Justin Thomas is the golfer I am most intrigued by when it comes to placing an outright wager. I know this is DFS we are talking about now, but it goes to show that Thomas' upside makes him a boom-or-bust target in California.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
- Safest Play: Rory McIlroy ($9,700) - If we exclude last year's missed cut at the Genesis Invitational, it had been four top-20 results in a row at this tournament for Rory McIlroy. The Irishman enters the week with quality form, having posted seven worldwide top-18 results over as many starts, and some of the quality we have become accustomed to from the fifth-ranked player in the world seems to be returning.
- Most Upside: Cameron Smith ($9,100) - We have seen some boom-or-bust results from Cameron Smith over the years at Riviera, but the good has resulted in multiple top-10 showings since 2017. Smith ranks inside the top-10 of this field for sand save percentage, weighted short game, par-five birdie or better percentage, weighted par-four and fast Poa greens.
- Favorite GPP Play: None - Ownership is extremely condensed into this zone. Xander Schauffele, Cameron Smith, Rory McIlroy and Hideki Matsuyama are all in play, but I think that group will need to be concentrated marginally before Thursday.
- Fade: Brooks Koepka ($9,000) - I am with the industry here.
- Most Likely Winner: Xander Schauffele ($9,900) - I know Xander Schauffele rarely wins, but the math is checking a lot of boxes for me in California.
$8,000 Range
- Safest Play: Bubba Watson ($8,500) - Back-to-back missed cuts at this event dampens some of the security around Bubba Watson, but three victories and three additional top-15 finishes show we have some level of protection and upside when considering the American at $8.500. Watson ranks 10th in this field on fast Poa greens and is also 16th on courses with challenging to hit fairways.
- Most Upside: Jordan Spieth ($8,900) - The combination of Jordan Spieth's short game and reweighted totals when looking at my course-specific tee-to-green numbers seems to give us a golfer with real upside to compete on the first page of the leaderboard. Spieth has made five straight cuts at this stop, averaging 3.48 shots tee-to-green.
- Favorite GPP Play: Jordan Spieth ($8,900) - Only six percent projected ownership right now
- Fade: Sungjae Im ($8,600) -Sungjae has yet to make a cut in two tries and has lost with his irons in two of his last three starts on tour.
- Most Likely Winner: Sam Burns ($8,700) - It was close between Burns and Spieth for this final spot. I prefer the contrarian route Spieth presents when making a build, but Burns' upside has him properly priced at $8,700
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
- Safest Play: Marc Leishman ($7,900) - Four straight starts gaining both off-the-tee and approach.
- Most Upside: Joaquin Niemann ($7,800) - Niemann hasn't found a ton of success here in the past, but he is someone that excels on hard golf courses.
- Favorite GPP Play: Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,200, Kevin Na ($7,600)
- Fade: Corey Conners ($7,300)
- Most Likely Winner: Kevin Na ($7,600)
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
We are still early in the week. I will continue to run numbers as more ownership comes in for these $7,000/$6,000 golfers.
K.H. Lee ($6,900), Matin Laird ($6,900), Rickie Fowler ($6,600), Doug Ghim ($6,500), Wyndham Clark ($6,500), Patrick Rodgers ($6,500)
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