Daily Fantasy Golf FanDuel Picks (PGA DFS): BMW Championship

August 26, 2020

Joe Nicely breaks down the FanDuel slate, providing information of not only who will come into the week under-owned but also who should be avoided for your lineups.

Hello RotoBaller PGA family! It is great to be back with you for the FedEx Cup Playoffs and this week we head to Olympia Fields Country Club for the BMW Championship!

Dustin Johnson destroyed the competition last week at the Northern Trust and will square off against another elite field this week in Chicago. The BMW field contains only 70 players and there will be no cut in this event, so we'll want to approach it in similar fashion to WGC events. In this article, we'll discuss some of the standout PGA DFS plays available on FanDuel for the BMW Championship. While it's impossible to hit on every player, we'll touch on some different plays across all price ranges.

Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for FanDuel, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

2020 BMW Championship - PGA DFS Overview

Olympia Fields CC (North Course)

7,366 Yards - Par 70 - Greens: Poa w/ Bent

We're always guessing as to what will happen when these classical layouts play host to modern Tour pros. Though Olympia Fields has a long and storied history, we haven't seen it host PGA Tour players since the 2003 U.S. Open that was won by Jim Furyk at eight-under par. At least on the scorecard, the old girl is a beast, stretching nearly 7,400 yards with seven Par-4s that will play over 450 yards, not to mention two Par-5s that measure in at over 600 yards. However, length alone is no longer a defense in and of itself, as we saw Justin Thomas dismantle a 7,600+ yard Medinah layout in last year's BMW Championship. What we do expect to be tough this week is the rough at Olympia Fields, with reports coming in that we could see rough of over five inches by the tournament's end.

We'll have to give a bump to those players that are long and accurate off the tee this week, while also specifically targeting those that perform well on Par-4s of over 450 yards and excel on approach shots longer than 175 yards. Anytime we're forced to guess on what skills to target, I always lean on SG: Tee To Green and Ball Striking.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
• Proximity: 175-200 Yards & 200+ Yards
• Par 4 Scoring (450-500 Yards)
• Bogey Avoidance

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for FanDuel (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event including DFS lineup picks for DraftKings/FanDuel, betting advice and DFS prop picks.

High-Priced FanDuel DFS Players 

Dustin Johnson ($12,000)

Dustin Johnson logged a performance for the ages last week at the Northern Trust. DJ posted a ridiculous four-round total of 30-under par and it served as a great reminder that he has a different gear than almost any other golfer on the planet.

It is tempting to continue riding DJ this week after watching his dominant performance last week, but there is the age-old DFS question of should we take a golfer the week following a win? The answer is "it depends". DJ's performance at the Memorial following his Travelers win earlier this year was ridiculously bad. However, his other recent results following wins are impressive:

• Win 2019 WGC-Mexico, T5 Players Championship in his next start three weeks later
• Win 2018 Canadian Open, T3 WGC-Bridgestone the following week
• Win 2018 St. Jude, T3 U.S. Open the following week
• Win 2018 TOC, Runner-up AT&T Pebble Beach three weeks later

These are just a few examples over the last two years, but it illustrates the point that DJ can definitely play well in bunches and that a win last week shouldn't make you abandon ship in and of itself. When we focus on course fit for Olympia Fields, Johnson should be well suited for this classic layout, as he destroys long Par-4s and ranks first in the field in Proximity from 200+ yards over the last 24 rounds.

Bottom line...DJ is a tremendous play in a vacuum this week and you shouldn't be overly influenced by the fact that he won last week. Some DFS regulars will never play a guy coming off a win - and it is true that DJ likes to... ahem..."celebrate" at times - but we might even be able to gain some leverage in GPPs by being willing to go back to Johnson in this spot.

Justin Thomas ($11,700)

A couple of underwhelming performances from JT following his win in Memphis last month, with a T37 at the PGA and a T49 last week at the Northern Trust. We can pinpoint the root of the problem fairly easily, as Thomas has lost strokes putting for three straight weeks (yes, he lost strokes putting in victory at the WGC!).

His putting and finishes have been pedestrian, but the ball striking is still there - SG: T2G totals of +6.7 & +4.5 in his last two starts - which makes JT a tremendous breakout candidate for me this week. Poa is traditionally his best putting surface, so there's a strong chance that he can improve on the greens at Olympia Fields. He destroyed a very long Medinah course in last year's BMW Championship and will have no problem with the stretched-out nature of this week's layout. So despite a couple of weeks worth of underwhelming performances, JT is perhaps my favorite elite play of the week.

Daniel Berger ($11,200)

Call me a "Daniel Berger Truther" if you like, but those of us that believe in "Boog" have been laughing all the way to the bank this year. Berger heads to Chicago fresh off yet another strong outing - a 3rd at last week's Northern Trust - his fourth in top-three finish in six post-layoff starts.

Berger has gained strokes T2G in every start of 2020 - minus a knock-the-rust-off start at the Memorial - and has to be in the conversation as the most consistent player of the year. We're not sure exactly how this Olympia Fields layout will play, but we have to feel good about Berger's "really good at everything" style this week. It feels like the secret is finally out on him, so I do expect him to garner some ownership this week, but there's no way I can abandon ship now.

Collin Morikawa ($11,100) 

Collin Morikawa heads to Chicago looking to rebound from just the third missed cut of his career. Morikawa lost strokes on approach last week in his first start since winning the PGA Championship at Harding Park. I'm willing to chalk it up to an outlier-type "knock the rust off" start, as the youngster has been one of the most consistent iron players in the game since he turned pro last year.

Anytime we're facing a course setup that we're unsure of, I lean on T2G and Ball Striking statistics. Morikawa has those in spades, as we expect that both Total Driving (second in the field in Good Drives Gained) and long-iron play (12th in field Proximity from 200+ yards) to be key areas of importance this week.

I'm honestly comfortable rostering Morikawa on a weekly basis, as I feel like his game translates to any type of golf course. He's familiar with Olympia Fields through the NCAA's Illini Invitational and I expect him to dramatically improve on his result of a week ago.

Scottie Scheffler ($10,600)

Not crazy about the price tag, but it is hard to ignore the way Scottie Scheffler has played of late. The former Texas Longhorn dropped a little 59 at TPC Boston last week en route to a T4. That performance came on the heels of a gritty and impressive T4 outing at the PGA Championship earlier this month.

Scheffler heads to the BMW ranked second in this elite field in recent SG:T2G metrics and since sputtering initially after the restart, he's now ran off four straight top-25 finishes - gaining strokes T2G in each of those starts. I always like to target explosive scorers in no-cut events and Scheffler certainly fits the bill, as he stands fourth in this field in Birdies Gained over the last 12 rounds.

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Mid-Priced FanDuel DFS Players

Harris English ($10,300)

Poor old Harris English. We always complain about his inability to actually win golf tournaments, but when he finally shoots a tournament-winning type of score (19-under par last week) he runs into the absolute freight train that was DJ at TPC Boston.

English has been a top-25 machine throughout the year, especially since the restart, and has posted top-25 finishes in every post-layoff start since missing the cut at the Schwab. We think of him as something of a "vanilla" type of player, but he's actually been scoring at an impressive clip recently and ranks seventh in this elite field in Birdies Gained over the last three tournaments. Despite the runner-up finish last week, the questions about his win equity are still legitimate, but English is a great core building block this week and has proven himself to be a rock-solid option this season.

Viktor Hovland ($10,000)

Hovland hasn't had his best stuff as of late, but his stats indicate that his ball-striking was back last week at the Northern Trust and a final-round 66 sends him to the BMW with great positive momentum.

I keep reiterating that we're only guessing as to how this Olympia Fields layout will play, but my position is that I always want Hovland on courses that are playing long and/or hard. His ability both off the tee and on approach - especially with long irons - is world class. Yes...the short game is an obvious concern, however, he's actually gained strokes putting in two straight starts...which is kinda scary. I love his explosiveness in this week's no-cut format and he's the type of player that can string together four low rounds for us.

Matthew Wolff ($9,800)

A lot of the points made above about Viktor Hovland also apply to Matty Wolff. His explosive scoring ability is a key selling point for me this week. We know that he has more than enough length to handle any golf course and his combination of both distance (4th in field Driving Distance) and accuracy (23rd in field Fairways Gained) makes him a legitimate tournament-winning threat on any layout.

On top of his sharp recent form (he was undone by one bad round last week and played much better than his finish indicates) we can also sprinkle in a little course-history narrative, as Wolff won individual honors at the 2018 Illini Invitational at Olympia Fields while in college at Oklahoma State. We don't know how similar the course will be setup this week, but it shoves me into a direction that I was already leaning with Wolff as one of my favorite plays on the board.

Louis Oosthuizen ($9,300)

Listen...I'm the first to admit that sometimes things can go terribly wrong when rostering Louis Oosthuizen. That said, I'm intrigued with his recent form, as well as his pedigree on "championship caliber" golf courses. Shrek has played his best golf of 2020 in August and has gained strokes T2G in three straight starts. He also happens to be an excellent Poa putter that has a knack for popping up in "big" events such as this week's BMW.

Low-Priced FanDuel DFS Players

Russell Henley ($8,800)

Lots of great value plays this week, as the DFS sites are basically forced to price some guys cheap due to the field only having 70 players. Perhaps the most noticeable beneficiary of a price tag that's too cheap is Russell Henley, a player that heads to the BMW on the heels of back-to-back top-10 outings at the Wyndham and Northern Trust. Henley has perhaps been the best iron player on the PGA Tour since the restart and stands first in this field in SG: Approach. His putting often holds him back, but tons of upside with him at this price.

Jason Kokrak ($8,400)

I actually rostered Kokrak a lot in 2019, but his play steadily declined to the point that I've been off him for some time now. I'm interested in hopping back on this week, as Kokrak has been trending in the right direction over his last couple of starts, posting back-to-back top-15 finishes at the Wyndham and Northern Trust. His iron play has been especially sharp as of late and he gained 7.8 strokes T2G last week in Boston - a mark that was sixth in the field. Kokrak's inconsistency is frustrating, but we don't have to sweat a missed cut this week and he brings sneaky upside to the table at a very reasonable price point.

Talor Gooch ($7,800)

Full disclosure: I've been burned by Talor Gooch several times in the past. However, I keep going back to the well because he can pay off his price tag in spades on good weeks. That's the nature of the game when discussing value play options that can help you to win large-field GPPs...we basically have to be willing to embrace the volatility that comes with rostering these type of players. I'm in on Gooch at the BMW, as he heads in off two solid outings and surprisingly grades out third in this ultra-elite field in Par-4 scoring on holes of 450-500 yards, of which there are seven on this Olympia Fields layout.

Mark Hubbard ($7,700)

Another player that just feels too cheap this week. Hubbard has been sneaky-good since the restart being a W/D at the Workday. The 31-year-old is another player that pops in a couple of key statistical areas this week, as he grades out second in the field on Par-4s of 450-500 yards and stands third in Proximity from 175-200 yards. I definitely acknowledge win equity concerns about a guy like Hubbard in this type of field, but we don't need him to win at this price and he opens up tons of flexibility in roster construction.

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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

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