December 9, 2017

Measuring fantasy football performance using consistency data. Addison Hayes uses standard deviation of weekly fantasy point data to find starters for Week 14.

It's finally here, Week 14 and the start of the fantasy playoffs. I hope everyone reading this made the playoffs and hopefully earned that coveted first round bye. The next three weeks may be the most painful or glorious weeks of the season for owners. Consistency has never been more important in lineups, as one dud could send you packing.

Since it is the start of the playoffs, we have enough data to make some accurate predictions on how players will perform week-to-week. However, we have seen some pretty drastic differences in player performances over the second half of the season compared to the first half (Kareem Hunt cough cough).

For better or worse, many players are performing differently in the past few weeks than their yearly numbers would suggest. To show this, I will have a table with the top-10 and bottom-10 players in COR over the last five weeks, along with the overall table of players at each position.

Quarterbacks

Last week I highlighted both Jared Goff and Philip Rivers as potential league winners, given their playoffs schedules and consistency throughout the season. I would like to add one more name to the list for quarterbacks: Kirk Cousins. Cousins is in the same tier as Rivers and Goff in COR and floor, making him a safe but also explosive quarterback that playoff teams need to win a championship. Additionally, Cousins' schedule is very favorable after this week. He takes on the Chargers this week, a tough match-up for any quarterback. However, after this week, he takes on the Cardinals and the Broncos in Weeks 15 and 16, both at home. Now, traditionally those defenses might scare owners when their quarterback faces them, but this season, both have been very porous to the pass in recent weeks. Given the favorable schedule combined with great consistency numbers and production, Kirk Cousins is another name I would expect to see on many championship teams.

One other name I need to mention is Case Keenum. If for some reason he is still available, pick him up now! Keenum has been on fire recently, with four QB1 performances in the past five weeks (the other being QB13) and he currently holds the fourth highest COR over that time period among quarterbacks. Keenum is another name I would not be surprised to see on fantasy rosters, but he has two rough match-ups in Weeks 14 and 15 against the Panthers and Bengals, but plays the Packers in Week 16. For playoff teams with shaky quarterback production, Keenum needs to be rostered and stashed for the fantasy championship in Week 16 and I would not be opposed to playing him the next two weeks in some Cases (pun intended).

Running Backs

I think we need to talk about Lamar Miller. I get it, I am the only person left in the world who still likes Miller, but he is one of the most productive and consistent running backs on a weekly basis. He is not a sexy name. He will not win you weeks with a blow-up performance, but he will produce and he will not kill your team. In fact, Miller has only cored less than double digits twice all season. The other two games? 7.3 and 8.4 fantasy points. He has finished as an RB2 or better in 10 games, more than Mark Ingram, Melvin Gordon, Kareem Hunt, LeSean McCoy, and many others. Finally, Miller is a RB1 on the season.

Among running backs, Miller is ninth in COR on the season and tenth over the last five weeks. As a weekly RB2 with RB1 upside, you could do much worse than Miller, who has the safest floors among running backs. For the fantasy playoffs, he has two tougher matchups in Weeks 15 and 16, but gets the 49ers this week, who rank third in most points per game allowed to running backs. Fire him up this week with confidence!

Wide Receivers

I am pretty late to the reaction party, but I have a few thoughts on Alshon Jeffery. Before he signed with the Eagles, I was never on board with Jeffery as a WR1 in fantasy with Chicago, mostly due to his injury history. When he signed with Philadelphia, I questioned how big of a role he would have in a fairly cluttered receiving corps with a sophomore quarterback. The Jordan Matthews trade also did little to pique my interest in Jeffery, because I saw that as a bigger upgrade for Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor than Jeffery. 13 weeks into the season, Jeffery has been a solid WR2 with a clean injury sheet on his new team. Because of that, Jeffery inked a four-year extension with the Eagles and will remain a fixture of a young, up-and-coming offense, led by Carson Wentz. In dynasty, I am hoping aboard the train at his current price of a mid-first round pick.

This season, Jeffery has been fairly consistent around a 13.58 points per game average, and is middle-of-the-pack among receivers in COR. He is currently the WR17 on the year and has only had two bad games this year for fantasy, scoring 6.1 and 5.7 points in Weeks 5 and 7. In fact, over the past five weeks, Jeffery ranks ninth in COR, scoring double digit points in each of the past five games. For a WR2 with a WR2 price, I am happy to acquire a productive wide receiver in a stable situation with a growing and explosive offense.

One of the most underrated receivers in fantasy, not just over the past five weeks or this season, but over the past few years has been Mike Wallace. In fact,over the past five seasons, Wallace has only finished outside the top-30 among wide receivers once (2015 with the Vikings). Now, this season, Wallace is the WR49, but over the past three weeks, Wallace is the WR20 with at least five receptions or a touchdown in each game. Furthermore, Wallace has the eighth-highest COR over the last five weeks and has become the favorite target for Joe Flacco in the passing game. He is the WR1 on the Baltimore Ravens and is very much worthy of a flex play during the playoffs.

Tight Ends

Cameron Brate has been one of the most predictable tight ends in fantasy football. In fact, the formula is simple for him; he is a top-5 tight end when Jameis Winston is playing, but disappears without Winston. In fact, looking at Brate's numbers on the season, most of his standard deviation comes from Winston missing essentially four games. With Winston, Brate averages over 14 points per game with a 4.8 standard deviation and a COR of 55.8, which would be the highest among tight ends. The formula is simple with Brate, folks. Start him with Winston on the field.

One name on this list is not like the rest and he is in the top-10 in COR among tight ends over the last five weeks: Eric Ebron. Now hold on, before you immediately exit this article at the mention of Ebron, let me explain what he has quietly done in recent weeks. After a disgusting start to the season, with only two weeks above three fantasy points and only one above five, Ebron has been fairly productive since the bye. Since Week 7, Ebron has never scored below six points and has scored over seven points in all but one game. Though I do not advocate starting him in the playoffs, I still believe Ebron has some value in dynasty and is currently riding a hot streak of consistency. With that said, Ebron will be held without a catch this week because of this paragraph.

Flex

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