Best College Football Upset Picks and Underdog Bets - Week 4 CFB Predictions (2025)

September 18, 2025

Brant's best college football predictions and upset picks for Week 4 of the 2025 season. His top CFB underdogs and favorites on upset watch, including Illinois, Auburn, and more.

Week 3 was the most fun week of college football yet. Every window had a game that came down to the wire, and we saw a number of upsets across the board. I properly called out Vanderbilt and West Virginia last week, but failed to mention other big upset wins in Georgia Tech (over Clemson) and Texas A&M (over Notre Dame).

While Week 4 doesn’t have as many “big games” on paper, this week is set up to be just as fun. 

Typically, home underdogs are the way to go. However, I see several road teams this week that I think have the firepower to pull off a win. Here are my five favorite road dogs in Week 4.

Maryland Terrapins (at Wisconsin)

Mike Locksley is firmly on the hot seat, and Maryland was picked near the bottom of the Big Ten this season after undergoing some roster turnover. 

Maryland has yet to be tested, but true freshman quarterback Malik Washington has looked like the real deal through the first three games of the season. The 6-foot-5 phenom has thrown for 773 yards, six touchdowns, and an interception while defeating Florida Atlantic, Northern Illinois, and Towson.

Not a bad start (or company) for Maryland’s Malik Washington. pic.twitter.com/NHOkmQSf8o

— Sam Jane (@sam_jane230) September 15, 2025

Washington will face a challenge against a rowdy crowd in Madison this weekend, especially coming off last week’s brutal beatdown against Alabama. Former Terps quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. may be back for Wisconsin after suffering an injury in the Badgers’ season opener, but it remains to be seen if he will play. If he can’t go, backup Danny O’Neil has shown no promise in getting the offense going. 

The Badgers are coming off a bad loss, but this team has shown little to no sign of life this year, while Maryland is rejuvenated behind a young quarterback. I like the Terps to start Big Ten play 1-0.

SMU Mustangs (at TCU)

It has been a shaky start to the season for SMU, which made the College Football Playoff a season ago. The Mustangs lost an overtime thriller in which they surrendered a big lead late against Baylor two weeks ago, then only put up 28 on a weak Missouri State team last week in a hangover from the loss.

This week, the Mustangs travel to Waco to take on heated rival TCU. The Horned Frogs opened the year with a dominant victory over North Carolina, then had a bye, and took out Abilene Christian 42-21 last week. Josh Hoover has looked like one of the nation’s best quarterbacks through two games.

I cannot get enough of Kevin Jennings pic.twitter.com/dXQHBzsReG

— Max Chadwick (@CFBMaxChadwick) September 6, 2025

SMU retained a solid amount of talent from its playoff roster a season ago, starting with quarterback Kevin Jennings. While they struggled last week, the Mustangs have a ton of offensive firepower, as proven in the Baylor game. This is bound to be another high-scoring shootout, as TCU’s defense proved not to be strong after surrendering 21 to a mid-tier FCS team.

Points will go on the board early and often in this rivalry game. I like SMU to get the better of TCU solely because I think it has more of an ability to make a play defensively than the Horned Frogs do. When it comes down to it, someone is going to have to make a stop. Expect a high-scoring barn burner to start Saturday off right.

No. 22 Auburn Tigers (at No. 11 Oklahoma)

You could make the argument that Oklahoma has looked like the best team in college football through three weeks. Between dominant wins over Illinois State and Temple, Brent Venables’ Sooners dominated Michigan in a game that was not as close as the 24-13 final score indicated. Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer has been a great fit in Norman so far, taking this offense a few steps up from where it was a season ago.

This weekend on the opposing sideline, former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold will be in town to face his old team. Arnold was inconsistent during his time as Oklahoma’s starter, leading fans to dislike him. This will be a hostile environment as Arnold returns to face his old school in one of the top games of the week.

Here's what Hugh Freeze told Auburn football quarterback Jackson Arnold regarding the Tigers' upcoming matchup against Oklahoma, where Arnold played the past two seasons. pic.twitter.com/jYHkmOBfEP

— MontgomeryAdvertiser (@MGMAdvertiser) September 16, 2025

From everything we’ve seen so far this season, the former five-star has matured as a quarterback since his time at Oklahoma. He has taken command of the Tigers offense and made better decisions with the ball than he did last year. Arnold has become more of a run-first quarterback, which has contributed to his zero turnovers this season. Through three games, he has thrown for 501 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 192 yards and four more touchdowns.

Arnold led his team to a road win over Baylor in Week 1, and gets a huge opportunity this weekend to take the crown from Oklahoma as one of the sport’s most exciting teams. This will be a hard-fought SEC opener for both teams, and I believe that the Tigers have the impact players on both sides of the ball to step up on the road and reinstall themselves as one of college football’s premier programs.

Troy Trojans (at Buffalo)

Troy made headlines two weeks ago when it nearly knocked off Clemson on the road. Last week, it fell 28-7 against Memphis to drop its second straight game. The Trojans are a team with fight, but quarterback issues have plagued them after losing Goose Crowder to a shoulder injury.

Buffalo, considered one of the top teams in the MAC before the season, nearly lost to Kent State last week. That’s right, the same Kent State team that has been the worst in the FBS by far over the past few seasons. 

Both of these teams have faced their own struggles over the past few weeks, and this is a truly sick game to include here. Only the truest college football fans will have eyes on this game.

With that being said, I think that Buffalo’s defense is a step down from Memphis. Troy backup quarterback Tucker Kilcrease is going to have to play better than his 10-of-29 game last week, but if he can do so, the Trojans can get out of Buffalo with a win.

No. 9 Illinois Fighting Illini (at No. 19 Indiana)

Perhaps the most intriguing game of the week is a colossal Big Ten showdown in Bloomington on Saturday night, as the ninth-ranked Fighting Illini travel to take on the 19th-ranked Hoosiers. Indiana has looked reminiscent of the team that made the College Football Playoff a season ago, while Bret Bielema’s team has one of the most underrated wins of the year on its resume in a 45-19 thrashing at Duke two weeks ago.

Both teams are talented, have continuity, and are well-coached. This will not only be one of the biggest games of the weekend, but of the entire college football season. The winner here has legit playoff aspirations, while the loser stares down an entire Big Ten schedule with one loss already on the record books. The tone will be set for the rest of the season for both teams here.

Indiana is favored, given that it is home at night. That being said, we haven’t really seen Curt Cignetti coach against a team of equal talent. We’ve seen him blow out lesser opponents, and we’ve seen him coach soft against the big boys.

On the flip side, Bielema is a seasoned veteran when it comes to huge Big Ten showdowns. Behind veteran quarterback Luke Altmyer and powerful trenches on both sides of the ball, I like Illinois’ chances to keep the momentum rolling and to continue living up to the preseason hype.

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