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Eli Grabanski breaks down the 2022 Green Bay Packers coaching staff in search of buy-lows, fantasy football sleepers, and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
Outside of losing offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett to the Denver Broncos, the Green Bay Packers will be bringing back many of their key coaching staff members from 2021. Matt LaFleur will return as the Packers' head coach and Joe Barry will be back as the team's defensive coordinator. Adam Stenavich will be the new offensive coordinator, replacing Nathaniel Hackett.
This article will look at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Packers players' fantasy values in it.
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The Baseline
To get a better understanding of the value the Packers coaches help bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Packers' coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:
QB Impact
| Year | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
35.19 | 254.88 | 1.70 | 4.19 | 18.43 | 0.25 |
| 2021 League Average | 34.40 | 244.13 | 1.54 | 3.99 | 17.36 | 0.18 |
RB Impact
| Year | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
21.68 | 95.13 | 0.75 | 4.71 | 6.14 | 34.94 | 0.18 |
|
2021 League Average
|
21.66 | 92.20 | 0.69 | 4.82 | 6.22 | 36.36 | 0.19 |
WR Impact
| Year | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
13.24 | 20.21 | 166.67 | 1.04 |
|
2021 League Average
|
12.45 | 19.75 | 155.55 | 0.96 |
TE Impact
| Year | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
4.76 | 7.03 | 51.29 | 0.45 |
|
2021 League Average
|
4.77 | 6.93 | 50.44 | 0.37 |
Defense Impact
| Year | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 2020 League Average | 24.8 | 240.2 | 118.9 | 64.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
| 2021 League Average | 23.0 | 228.3 | 115.2 | 63.3 | 5.4 | 1.3 |
Previous Coaching Staff
In order to get an understanding of how the Green Bay Packers' fantasy players may be impacted this year, we also need to look at what kind of production former offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett got out of the Packers offense in his time as the offensive coordinator. By doing this, we will have a better understanding of where the new offensive coordinator is starting from and where the primary changes will occur.
Former Offensive Coordinator: Nathaniel Hackett
Nathaniel Hackett left the Packers this offseason to be the Denver Broncos head coach. Prior to joining the Broncos, he had previously spent two seasons as the Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator (2013-2014), 36 games as the Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator (2016-2018), and three seasons as the Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator (2019-2021). Below are some statistics from his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2020 Packers | 16 | 32.88 | 268.69 | 3 | 3.19 | 8.75 | 0.19 |
| 2021 Packers | 17 | 34.88 | 266.24 | 2.29 | 2.76 | 7.47 | 0.18 |
| Hackett's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 117 | 34.67 | 243.93 | 1.70 | 3.47 | 13.90 | 0.15 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2020 Packers | 16 | 23.81 | 120.38 | 0.81 | 5.69 | 7.19 | 43.5 | 0.19 |
| 2021 Packers | 17 | 23 | 100.88 | 0.59 | 5.24 | 6.24 | 41.88 | 0.47 |
| Hackett's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 117 | 24.44 | 104.83 | 0.68 | 5.86 | 7.73 | 46.41 | 0.26 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Packers | 16 | 12.69 | 18.13 | 172.75 | 1.81 |
| 2021 Packers | 17 | 14.12 | 21.41 | 181.53 | 1.59 |
| Hackett's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 117 | 11.74 | 19.89 | 153.67 | 1.06 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Packers | 16 | 4.81 | 5.94 | 52.81 | 1 |
| 2021 Packers | 17 | 4.24 | 5.82 | 43.06 | 0.24 |
| Hackett's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 117 | 4 | 5.85 | 42.28 | 0.36 |
2022 Offense
2022 Head Coach: Matt LaFleur
Matt LaFleur has been the Green Bay Packers head coach since 2019. Prior to joining the Packers, LaFleur served as an offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams (2017) and Tennessee Titans (2018). Let's take a look at the performance of LaFleur's offenses over the course of his 81-game career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role to gain better insight into how the Packers' offense could look in 2022.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2020 Packers | 16 | 32.88 | 268.69 | 3 | 3.19 | 8.75 | 0.19 |
| 2021 Packers | 17 | 34.88 | 266.24 | 2.29 | 2.76 | 7.47 | 0.18 |
| LaFleur's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 81 | 32.68 | 248.40 | 1.94 | 3.16 | 10.48 | 0.12 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2020 Packers | 16 | 23.81 | 120.38 | 0.81 | 5.69 | 7.19 | 43.5 | 0.19 |
| 2021 Packers | 17 | 23 | 100.88 | 0.59 | 5.24 | 6.24 | 41.88 | 0.47 |
| LaFleur's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 81 | 22.93 | 103.94 | 0.84 | 5.21 | 6.52 | 43.27 | 0.32 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Packers | 16 | 12.69 | 18.13 | 172.75 | 1.81 |
| 2021 Packers | 17 | 14.12 | 21.41 | 181.53 | 1.59 |
| LaFleur's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 81 | 12.12 | 18.96 | 157.40 | 1.17 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Packers | 16 | 4.81 | 5.94 | 52.81 | 1 |
| 2021 Packers | 17 | 4.24 | 5.82 | 43.06 | 0.24 |
| LaFleur's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 81 | 4.05 | 5.74 | 45.58 | 0.43 |
2022 Offensive Coordinator: Adam Stenavich
| Adam Stenavich's Coaching Career | ||
| Year | Team | Role |
| 2012 | Michigan | Grad. Assist. |
| 2013 | Michigan | Grad. Assist. |
| 2014 | Northern Arizona | O-Line Coach |
| 2015 | San Jose State | O-Line Coach |
| 2016 | San Jose State | O-Line Coach |
| 2017 | San Francisco 49ers |
Ast. O-Line Coach
|
| 2018 | San Francisco 49ers |
Ast. O-Line Coach
|
| 2019 | Green Bay Packers | O-Line Coach |
| 2020 | Green Bay Packers | O-Line Coach |
| 2021 | Green Bay Packers |
Run Game Coordinator & O-Line Coach
|
| Present | Green Bay Packers |
Offensive Coordinator
|
Matt LaFleur and Adam Stenavich Takeaways & Expectations
Because Adam Stenavich has not worked as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to the 2022 season and Matt LaFleur is expected to serve as the team's primary offensive play-caller this section will primarily talk about LaFleur's tendencies.
Over the course of Matt LaFleur's 81-game career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role, his offenses have averaged just 32.68 passing attempts per game. In his past two years with the Packers, the usage has been a little higher than that, with the Packers attempting 32.88 passes per game in 2020 and 34.88 passes per game in 2021. This low volume passing usage means that the Packers starting quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, will have to be more efficient than the average quarterback in order to get his big passing numbers - luckily he has shown he can do that over the course of his career.
But besides passing, it is also important to look at the rushing usage of LaFleur's quarterbacks over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator or head coach. Over the course of his career, LaFleur's quarterbacks have averaged 3.16 carries, 10.48 rushing yards, and 0.12 rushing touchdowns per game.
Overall, Matt LaFleur's offense historically has limited the number of passing opportunities for his team and given his quarterbacks a fairly average number of rushing attempts on the ground. This lower volume means that you have to have a lot of belief in the talent of LaFleur's starting quarterback in order to expect a top-tier fantasy finish. Aaron Rodgers has the talent to be a top-tier fantasy quarterback, but it seems likely that he gets held back a little bit in 2022 due to his situation - playing in a slightly below-average volume passing attack and losing his top receiver from 2021 in Davante Adams. Going into the 2022 season, view Rodgers as more of a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 than the mid to high-end QB1 he's been in the past.
Looking at the running back position, Matt LaFleur has been phenomenal in utilizing the group. Over the course of his career, his running backs have averaged 22.93 carries, 103.94 rushing yards, and 0.84 rushing touchdowns per game on the ground - all of these numbers are above-average.
With no outliers in usage in the graph above, we can clearly expect LaFleur to give his running backs a healthy workload on the ground. This is very encouraging to see if you are rostering one of the Green Bay Packers running backs in your fantasy league(s).
But besides the amount of volume (carries) on the ground that LaFleur has historically provided, we also need to consider how that volume has been distributed over the course of his career - is LaFleur rolling with a bell-cow or a running back by committee approach?
Examining the data, Matt LaFleur helped provide his lead back a majority of the carries in his first couple of years - with his primary back on the season receiving 279 carries in 2017 (Todd Gurley), 215 carries in 2018 (Derrick Henry), and 236 carries in 2019 (Aaron Jones). But over the past two seasons, it appears that he's moved to a bit more of a running back by committee approach. Expect both Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon to be featured in this offense during the 2022 season.
The final aspect we should look at regarding Matt LaFleur's running backs is how much he has traditionally utilized them as pass-catchers. Over the course of his career, LaFleur's running back room has averaged 6.52 targets per game - which is average.
The bread and butter of Matt LaFleur's offenses have been the running back utilization, with an above-average number of opportunities provided on the ground and a slightly average number of opportunities provided through the air. Overall, based on this information both Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon are good targets in your fantasy league(s) as they are likely to be the Packers' two most utilized skill position players in 2022.
Looking at the wide receiver position, LaFleur's offense has seen his wide receivers average 12.12 receptions on 18.96 targets for 157.40 receiving yards and 1.17 receiving touchdowns per game over the course of his career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role.
This career average usage is below-average relative to other NFL play-callers. Considering the 2021 season had by far the highest amount of targets going to LaFleur's wide receivers, it seems likely that the Packers' wide receiver usage regresses in 2022 - especially with star wide receiver Davante Adams no longer in the picture. There's a very real chance that this team only has one fantasy-relevant receiver for the 2022 season so keep that in mind when deciding where to draft Allen Lazard, Christian Watson, Sammy Watkins, or Randall Cobb in your fantasy draft(s).
Finally, LaFleur's historical usage of tight ends is a little subpar. Over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator or head coach, Matt LaFleur's tight end room has averaged four receptions on 5.74 targets for 45.58 receiving yards and 0.43 receiving touchdowns per game.
LaFleur's career average is a little discouraging if you are rostering Robert Tonyan in one of your fantasy leagues - especially since he doesn't have a single season under his belt where his tight end room has seen more the six targets per game. Overall, Tonyan's got a bit of an uphill battle to becoming an elite option at the position in LaFleur's offensive scheme - even with the receiving competition wide open for 2022.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love, Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon, Kylin Hill, Patrick Taylor, Allen Lazard, Christian Watson, Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, Amari Rodgers, Robert Tonyan, Josiah Deguara, and Marcedes Lewis
2022 Defense
2022 Defensive Coordinator: Joe Barry
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2016 Washington | 16 | 23.94 | 258.13 | 119.75 | 65.63 | 5.76 | 1.31 |
| 2021 Packers | 17 | 21.82 | 219.06 | 109.12 | 61 | 5.38 | 1.53 |
| Barry's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 81 | 25.85 | 244.80 | 128.37 | 64.11 | 5.82 | 1.59 |
Joe Barry has been the Green Bay Packers defensive coordinator since 2021. He has also been a defensive coordinator at the NFL level for the Detroit Lions (2007-2008) and the team formerly known as the Washington Redskins (2015-2016). Because of his background, let's take a look at some defensive statistics from Barry's time as a defensive coordinator or head coach.
Other Notable Assistants
Special Teams Coordinator: Rich Bisaccia - The Packers opted to go a different direction with their special teams' coordinator position, letting go of Maurice Drayton and hiring Rich Bisaccia as the new coordinator. Bisaccia has been coaching football since 1983 and served as the Las Vegas Raiders' interim head coach last year after Jon Gruden was fired. He has previously worked as a special teams coordinator at the NFL level for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2002-2010), San Diego Chargers (2011-2012), Dallas Cowboys (2013-2017), and Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders (2018-2021).
QB Coach: Tom Clements - The Chicago Bears poached Luke Getsy from the Green Bay Packers coaching staff, hiring him as their offensive coordinator. As a result, the Packers needed to hire a new quarterbacks coach and went with Tom Clements for the position. Clements has worked as an NFL quarterbacks coach previously with the New Orleans Saints (1997-1999), Kansas City Chiefs (2000), Pittsburgh Steelers (2001-2003), Green Bay Packers (2006-2011), and Arizona Cardinals (2019-2020) prior to rejoining the Packers in 2022. In addition, Clements has worked as an offensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills (2004-2005) and the Green Bay Packers (2012-2014).
RB Coach: Ben Sirmans - Ben Sirmans has been the Green Bay Packers running backs coach since 2016. He's been coaching running backs at the college and NFL levels since 1996, notably also serving as the St. Louis Rams running backs coach from 2012 to 2015.
WR Coach: Jason Vrable - Jason Vrable has been the Green Bay Packers wide receivers coach since 2020 after previously serving as an offensive assistant coach for the team. He has also spent time at the NFL level with the Buffalo Bills (2013-2016) and New York Jets (2017-2018) in a variety of roles.
TE Coach: John Dunn - The Packers also needed to find a new tight ends coach this offseason after Nathaniel Hackett brought Justin Outten along with him to serve as the Denver Broncos offensive coordinator. To fill this void, the Packers promoted John Dunn to tight ends coach. Dunn has worked as a tight ends coach at the NFL level in the past for the New York Jets (2019-2020) and his most recent role with the Packers was as a senior analyst (2021).
OL Coach: Luke Butkus - With Adam Stenavich being promoted to offensive coordinator, the Green Bay Packers will have a new offensive line coach in 2022 - Luke Butkus. At the NFL level, Butkus has previously worked as an assistant offensive line coach for the Chicago Bears (2007-2009), Jacksonville Jaguars (2013-2015), and Green Bay Packers (2019-2021). He also served as the Seattle Seahawks' offensive line coach from 2010 to 2011.
DL Coach: Jerry Montgomery - Jerry Montgomery has been coaching with the Green Bay Packers since 2015 and has served as the team's defensive line coach since 2018. Prior to joining the Packers, he spent many years coaching at the college level.
ILB Coach: Kirk Olivadotti - Kirk Olivadotti has been the Green Bay Packers' inside linebackers coach since 2019. He previously spent much of his time coaching in a variety of roles for the team formerly known as the Washington Redskins (2000-2010, 2014-2018).
OLB Coach: Jason Rebrovich - The Green Bay Packers will have a new outside linebackers coach in 2022, going from Mike Smith to Jason Rebrovich. Rebrovich has been coaching football in a variety of roles since 2001 and at the NFL level since 2013. As an NFL coach, he spent time with the Buffalo Bills (2013-2016) and Jacksonville Jaguars (2017-2020) prior to joining the Packers in 2022. He's worked as an outside linebackers coach once before, with the Buffalo Bills in 2015.
DB Coach: Jerry Gray - Jerry Gray has been the Green Bay Packers defensive backs coach since 2020, and coaching at the NFL level since 1997. At the NFL level, he has previously been a defensive backs coach for the Tennessee Titans (1999-2000), Washington Redskins (2006-2009), Seattle Seahawks (2010), and Minnesota Vikings (2014-2019). In addition, Gray has experience as a defensive coordinator from his time with the Buffalo Bills (2001-2005) and Tennessee Titans (2011-2013). He also was a defensive back in the NFL for the Los Angeles Rams (1985-1991), Houston Oilers (1992), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1993).
Safeties Coach: Ryan Downard - The Green Bay Packers added the position of safeties coach to their coaching roster in 2022, putting Ryan Downard in the role. With the Packers, Downard has previously worked as a defensive quality control coach (2018) and as an assistant defensive backs coach (2019-2021). He also served as a defensive assistant coach for the Cleveland Browns from 2014 to 2015.
Enjoy this series? Be sure to check out all of the other 'Coaching Matters' team previews!
AFC North: Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals
AFC South: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders
AFC East: Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, New York Jets
NFC North: Chicago Bears
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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