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Eli Grabanski breaks down the 2022 New England Patriots' coaching staff in search of buy-lows, fantasy football sleepers, and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
One team that will need to make some adjustments to its coaching staff is the New England Patriots after Josh McDaniels left to become the Las Vegas Raiders head coach. The team will still have Bill Belichick as the head coach, but the offensive and defensive coordinator roles are a bit more of a mystery going into the 2022-23 season.
This article will look at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Patriots players' fantasy values in it.
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The Baseline
To get a better understanding of the value the Patriots coaches bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Patriots coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:
QB Impact
| Year | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
35.19 | 254.88 | 1.70 | 4.19 | 18.43 | 0.25 |
| 2021 League Average | 34.40 | 244.13 | 1.54 | 3.99 | 17.36 | 0.18 |
RB Impact
| Year | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
21.68 | 95.13 | 0.75 | 4.71 | 6.14 | 34.94 | 0.18 |
|
2021 League Average
|
21.66 | 92.20 | 0.69 | 4.82 | 6.22 | 36.36 | 0.19 |
WR Impact
| Year | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
13.24 | 20.21 | 166.67 | 1.04 |
|
2021 League Average
|
12.45 | 19.75 | 155.55 | 0.96 |
TE Impact
| Year | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
4.76 | 7.03 | 51.29 | 0.45 |
|
2021 League Average
|
4.77 | 6.93 | 50.44 | 0.37 |
Defense Impact
| Year | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 2020 League Average | 24.8 | 240.2 | 118.9 | 64.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
| 2021 League Average | 23.0 | 228.3 | 115.2 | 63.3 | 5.4 | 1.3 |
Previous Coaching Staff
In order to get an understanding of how the Patriots' fantasy players may be impacted this year, we also need to take a look at one of the previous coaching staff members – Josh McDaniels. By doing this, we will have a better understanding of where the new coaches are starting from and where the primary changes will occur.
Former Offensive Coordinator: Josh McDaniels
Josh McDaniels had been the New England Patriots offensive coordinator for a majority of Bill Belichick's time in New England, working in the offensive coordinator role in his first stint from 2006 to 2008 and during his second in his second stint from 2012 to 2021. Besides New England, he had also worked as the Denver Broncos head coach (2009-2010) and as the St. Louis Rams offensive coordinator (2011). Below are some statistics of his teams from his time as an offensive coordinator or head coaching role.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2020 Patriots | 16 | 27.5 | 195.25 | 0.75 | 9.06 | 37.94 | 0.75 |
| 2021 Patriots | 17 | 31.47 | 241.06 | 1.41 | 3.24 | 7.12 | 0 |
| McDaniels's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 253 | 35.67 | 260.70 | 1.70 | 3.00 | 7.25 | 0.13 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2020 Patriots | 16 | 21.31 | 102.81 | 0.5 | 5.44 | 7.06 | 46.06 | 0.31 |
| 2021 Patriots | 17 | 24 | 108 | 1.41 | 5.24 | 6.24 | 44.82 | 0.12 |
| McDaniels's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 253 | 24.30 | 104.22 | 0.89 | 5.16 | 7.04 | 45.04 | 0.27 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Patriots | 16 | 10.5 | 16.44 | 128.94 | 0.25 |
| 2021 Patriots | 17 | 11.35 | 17.24 | 140.94 | 0.71 |
| McDaniels's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 253 | 13.08 | 21.12 | 160.97 | 0.96 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Patriots | 16 | 1.13 | 2 | 15.88 | 0.06 |
| 2021 Patriots | 17 | 4.59 | 7.06 | 52.76 | 0.59 |
| McDaniels's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 253 | 4.04 | 6.49 | 52.02 | 0.43 |
2022 Offense
2022 Head Coach: Bill Belichick
Bill Belichick is well known as a defensive-minded coach after his career working as a head coach for the Cleveland Browns (1991-1995) and the New England Patriots (2000-Present) as well as the defensive coordinator for the New York Giants (1985-1990) and New York Jets (1997-1999). Because the New England Patriots currently have no offensive coordinator and haven't been clear about who will serve as the team's offensive play-caller on game day, we will look at the 433 games that Belichick has specifically been an NFL head coach for the Cleveland Browns and the New England Patriots to try and get at least some expectations on what the offense could possibly look like in 2022.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2020 Patriots | 16 | 27.5 | 195.25 | 0.75 | 9.06 | 37.94 | 0.75 |
| 2021 Patriots | 17 | 31.47 | 241.06 | 1.41 | 3.24 | 7.12 | 0 |
| Belichick's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 433 | 34.30 | 250.57 | 1.69 | 2.82 | 6.25 | 0.11 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2020 Patriots | 16 | 21.31 | 102.81 | 0.5 | 5.44 | 7.06 | 46.06 | 0.31 |
| 2021 Patriots | 17 | 24 | 108 | 1.41 | 5.24 | 6.24 | 44.82 | 0.12 |
| Belichick's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 433 | 21.80 | 90.59 | 0.76 | 4.76 | 6.52* | 42.53 | 0.24 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Patriots | 16 | 10.5 | 16.44 | 128.94 | 0.25 |
| 2021 Patriots | 17 | 11.35 | 17.24 | 140.94 | 0.71 |
| Belichick's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 433 | 11.83 | 19.72* | 151.59 | 0.91 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Patriots | 16 | 1.13 | 2 | 15.88 | 0.06 |
| 2021 Patriots | 17 | 4.59 | 7.06 | 52.76 | 0.59 |
| Belichick's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 433 | 3.91 | 6.19* | 48.50 | 0.48 |
*Targets were not tracked during the 1991 season when Bill Belichick was the Cleveland Browns' head coach. Because of this, the career averages for targets are based on 417 games instead 433 games.
Bill Belichick Offensive Takeaways & Expectations
The Patriots' offensive playcalling is a mystery going into the 2022 season, with no offensive coordinator on the coaching roster and some uncertainty about who will serve as the de facto offensive coordinator on gamedays. Because of this uncertainty, we can't dive as deep into details on the play-calling and player usage as we've done in other entries of this series. What we can do is look at some of the offenses during Bill Belichick's time as a head coach (even though he has barely been the primary offensive play-caller during this time) and make some guesses about the offenses he's preferred his offensive play-callers to run.
Over the course of Belichick's time as a head coach, his teams have taken a fairly balanced approach, averaging 34.30 passing attempts and 28.45 team rushing attempts per game.
Moving onto the running back position, this appears to be a position that the New England Patriots plan on featuring heavily again in 2022 – they gave the position 24 carries per game in 2021, drafted Pierre Strong Jr. in the 4th round despite already having a pretty solid running back trio on the roster, and will once again have two running backs coaches.
The wide receiver room is a little tougher to gauge. In 2021, the Patriots' wide receivers didn't get as much usage and production as the typical NFL wide receiver room, as they averaged 11.35 receptions on 17.24 targets for 140.94 receiving yards and 0.71 receiving touchdowns. While the team did add DeVante Parker, based on the roster as well as the typical Bill Belichick team it seems unlikely that we see this team feature the group at an above-average amount in 2022.
As for the tight end room, in the passing game, the Patriots group averaged 4.59 receptions on 7.06 targets for 52.76 receiving yards and 0.59 receiving touchdowns per game during the 2021 season. Considering they still have a pair of solid tight ends in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, the usage should be around the same in the 2022 season – maybe a slight dip, if we're putting any stock into Belichick's career averages, (6.19 targets per game) during his time as an NFL head coach.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Mac Jones, Brian Hoyer, Bailey Zappe, Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, James White, Pierre Strong Jr., DeVante Parker, Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor, N'Keal Harry, Ty Montgomery, Tyquan Thornton, Hunter Henry, and Jonnu Smith
2022 Defense
2022 Head Coach: Bill Belichick
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2020 Patriots | 16 | 22.06 | 222.31 | 131.44 | 61.38 | 5.76 | 1.38 |
| 2021 Patriots | 17 | 17.82 | 187.12 | 123.71 | 61.06 | 5.09 | 1.76 |
| Belichick's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 576 | 18.23 | 216.05 | 107.00 | 63.38 | 5.10 | 1.90 |
Bill Belichick is widely considered one of the greatest NFL coaches of all time. Prior to becoming the New England Patriots head coach in 2000, Belichick served as the defensive coordinator of the New York Giants (1985-1990), the head coach of the Cleveland Browns (1991-1995), and the defensive coordinator of the New York Jets (1997-1999). Given Belichick's strong defensive background, let's take a look at some of his team's defensive statistics over the course of his career.
Other Notable Assistants
Special Teams Coordinator: Cameron Achord - Cameron Achord became the special teams coordinator of the New England Patriots in 2020 after Joe Judge left to become the New York Giants' head coach. He was previously the assistant special teams coach on the Patriots (2018-2019).
RB Coach: Ivan Fears - The Patriots will have two running back coaches again in 2022, Ivan Fears & Vinnie Sunseri. Ivan Fears has been coaching at the NFL level since 1991. He's been the New England Patriots running backs coach since 2002. He's also served as a wide receivers coach for the Patriots (1991-1992, 1999-2001) and the Chicago Bears (1993-1998).
RB Coach: Vinnie Sunseri - Vinnie Sunseri will join Ivan Fears in coaching up the running backs group. Sunseri has served as the team's running backs coach since 2021. He has also worked as a defensive coaching assistant for the New England Patriots (2020) and as a graduate assistant for Alabama (2019).
WR Coach: Troy Brown - With Mick Lombardi joining Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas and becoming their new offensive coordinator, the Patriots will be moving Troy Brown to wide receivers coach. Troy Brown previously served as the Patriots' running backs/kick returners coach from 2020 to 2021. He also played wide receiver for the Patriots from 1993 to 2007.
TE/FB Coach: Nick Caley - Nick Caley has been with the New England Patriots since 2015. He initially was hired as an offensive assistant but was promoted to tight ends coach in 2017. In addition to coaching the team's tight ends, Caley has also been the Patriots' fullbacks coach since 2020.
Assistant Offensive Line Coach: Billy Yates - The Patriots lost last year's offensive line coach Carmen Bricillo to the Las Vegas Raiders, and have not officially named a new offensive line coach yet. It sounds like senior football advisor Matt Patricia will be the primary coach for the Patriots' offensive line in 2022, but last year's assistant offensive line coach Billy Yates should have a role as well. Yates has been coaching football since 2013, and previously spent time as an assistant offensive line coach for the Detroit Lions (2020) prior to joining the Patriots coaching staff. He also played guard in the NFL for the Miami Dolphins (2003), New England Patriots (2004-2008), and the Cleveland Browns (2009-2010).
DL Coach: Demarcus Covington - Demarcus Covington became the Patriots' defensive line coach in 2020. His previous roles for the Patriots include being a coaching assistant (2017-2018) and the outside linebackers coach (2019).
ILB Coach: Jerod Mayo - Jerod Mayo has been the New England Patriots' inside linebackers coach since 2019. He also played linebacker for the Patriots from 2008 to 2015.
OLB Coach: Steve Belichick - Steve Belichick has been the New England Patriots outside linebackers coach since 2020. For the Patriots he's also worked as a defensive assistant (2012-2015) and as the safeties coach (2016-2019).
Corners Coach: Mike Pellegrino - Mike Pellegrino became the New England Patriots cornerbacks coach in 2019. He also served as a coaching assistant for the Patriots from 2015 to 2018.
Safeties Coach: Brian Belichick - Brian Belichick has been working for the Patriots since 2016. Prior to becoming the team's safeties coach in 2020, he served as a scouting assistant (2016) and a coaching assistant (2017-2019).
Offensive Assistant: Joe Judge - After Joe Judge was fired from the New York Giants head coaching job after just two seasons (2020-2021), the New England Patriots decided to bring him back as an offensive assistant. Judge previously served as a special teams coordinator for the Patriots from 2015 to 2019, but will primarily work with the offense in 2022 – specifically Mac Jones and the team's quarterbacks.
Senior Football Advisor: Matt Patricia - Matt Patricia has been a senior football advisor for the Patriots since 2021. For the New England Patriots, he's previously worked as an offensive assistant (2004), assistant offensive line coach (2005), linebackers coach (2006-2010), safeties coach (2011), and defensive coordinator (2012-2017). He also spent time as the head coach of the Detroit Lions from 2018 to 2020. During the 2022 season, it's expected that Matt Patricia has a larger role with the Patriots' offense (it is rumored he will primarily work with the offensive line) and perhaps even serves as the team's offensive play-caller on gameday.
Enjoy this series? Be sure to check out all of the other 'Coaching Matters' team previews!
AFC North: Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals
AFC South: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders
AFC East: Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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