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Eli Grabanski breaks down the 2022 Cleveland Browns' coaching staff in search of buy-lows, fantasy football sleepers, and risers based on play-calling and historical statistical data.
After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
One team that managed to maintain its core coaching staff this offseason was the Cleveland Browns, with head coach Kevin Stefanski, offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, and defensive coordinator Joe Woods all returning for the 2022-23 season.
This article will look at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Browns players' fantasy values in it.
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The Baseline
To get a better understanding of the value the Browns coaches bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Browns' coaches. Here are 'The Baseline" NFL league averages over the past couple of years:
QB Impact
| Year | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
35.19 | 254.88 | 1.70 | 4.19 | 18.43 | 0.25 |
| 2021 League Average | 34.40 | 244.13 | 1.54 | 3.99 | 17.36 | 0.18 |
RB Impact
| Year | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
21.68 | 95.13 | 0.75 | 4.71 | 6.14 | 34.94 | 0.18 |
|
2021 League Average
|
21.66 | 92.20 | 0.69 | 4.82 | 6.22 | 36.36 | 0.19 |
WR Impact
| Year | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
13.24 | 20.21 | 166.67 | 1.04 |
|
2021 League Average
|
12.45 | 19.75 | 155.55 | 0.96 |
TE Impact
| Year | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
4.76 | 7.03 | 51.29 | 0.45 |
|
2021 League Average
|
4.77 | 6.93 | 50.44 | 0.37 |
Defense Impact
| Year | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 2020 League Average | 24.8 | 240.2 | 118.9 | 64.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
| 2021 League Average | 23.0 | 228.3 | 115.2 | 63.3 | 5.4 | 1.3 |
2022 Offense
2022 Head Coach: Kevin Stefanski
After serving as the Minnesota Vikings' offensive coordinator for nineteen games between 2018 and 2019, Kevin Stefanski finally got his chance for a head coaching gig in 2020 with the Cleveland Browns. He did an amazing job in the 2020 season, helping guide the Browns to the playoffs. In 2021, it was a completely different story for the Browns as the team struggled and missed the playoffs. A big factor in the sudden drop-off for the team was the team's offensive efficiency declining from 2021. Given his background, let's take a look at some of Stefanski's offenses during his career and try to predict what we can expect from his offense in 2022.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2020 Browns | 16 | 31.31 | 231.31 | 1.69 | 3.38 | 10.31 | 0.06 |
| 2021 Browns | 16 | 30.63 | 217 | 1.25 | 3.06 | 9.75 | 0.06 |
| Stefanski's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 51 | 30.18 | 225.53 | 1.55 | 2.88 | 7.73 | 0.06 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2020 Browns | 16 | 26.88 | 132.63 | 1.13 | 3.63 | 4.63 | 29.38 | 0.31 |
| 2021 Browns | 16 | 24.44 | 132.94 | 0.94 | 4.44 | 5.56 | 37.18 | 0.19 |
| Stefanski's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 51 | 25.78 | 129.22 | 1.04 | 4.31 | 5.39 | 39.44 | 0.18 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Browns | 16 | 10.19 | 15.38 | 144.63 | 0.75 |
| 2021 Browns | 16 | 8.38 | 15 | 112.56 | 0.44 |
| Stefanski's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 51 | 9.04 | 14.55 | 128.45 | 0.76 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Browns | 16 | 5.63 | 8.69 | 56.06 | 0.56 |
| 2021 Browns | 16 | 5.63 | 8.44 | 63.31 | 0.56 |
| Stefanski's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 51 | 5.51 | 7.82 | 56.14 | 0.55 |
Kevin Stefanski Takeaways & Expectations
Stefanski has taken a balanced approach to his offense his whole career with his team averaging 30.18 passing attempts and 29.71 rushing attempts per game over the 51 games he's been a play-caller.
While his quarterbacks have been efficient for the most part, this low passing volume makes it tougher for his quarterbacks to put up impressive fantasy passing numbers. In addition, Stefanski's past quarterbacks haven't shown much-rushing prowess on the ground, averaging just 2.88 carries per game.
These rushing numbers likely see a bit of a jump this year as the team makes the quarterback change from Baker Mayfield to Deshaun Watson, but nonetheless are a little concerning. Based on all this information on his play-calling tendencies, starting quarterback Deshaun Watson will likely take a step back from being the top-five fantasy quarterback he was in Houston and move more into the mid-low QB1 range when he's on the field in Cleveland.
Looking at the running back position, Kevin Stefanski's system has been one of the best in the business for producing high-level performers. His offense provides many opportunities for his running backs to score with his running backs averaging 1.04 rushing touchdowns per game over the 51 games he's coached. He's also provided his running backs with more carries than the typical play-caller in every season he's been in the league at 25.78 carries per game.
This level of usage is extremely encouraging for the Browns running backs' fantasy prospects. Having said this, it's still important to figure out whether his system generally takes a running back by committee or a bell-cow approach so you can figure out how best to value Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt for 2022.
Looking at the data, Stefanski has given his season carry leader 53.2% of the team's season tailback carries throughout his career as an offensive coordinator or head coach. What this means is that both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should get a fair amount of work on the ground throughout the year and have opportunities to be successful.
The one big knock on Stefanski's running backs is that he hasn't featured them very much in the passing game relative to other play-callers. Throughout his career, Stefanski's running backs have averaged just 5.39 targets per game. Comparing this to the league-average numbers in 'The Baseline" section, it's clear that these numbers are below-average and Stefanski's offense won't be giving his running backs much work through the air.
Overall, Stefanski gives his running backs an extraordinary amount of carries and a slightly below-average amount of passing work. From a fantasy perspective, Nick Chubb should find himself as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 and Kareem Hunt should be valued in the low-end RB2/high-end FLEX range of running backs depending on the scoring format you play in.
How Stefanski has historically utilized his wide receivers is not nearly as positive as how he has utilized his running backs. In his career as an offensive play-caller, Stefanski's wide receiver room has averaged just 14.55 targets per game. For reference to how low this is, the average wide receiver room averaged 20.21 targets per game in 2020 and 19.75 targets per game in 2021.
This usage is extremely concerning for the Browns' starting wide receivers in 2022. Stefanski has underutilized many talented wide receivers in his system over the years like Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr., and Stefon Diggs, so it's hard to see him suddenly change his tune now. Because of this, the Browns' wide receivers may have more of an uphill battle to hitting their fantasy ceiling than other receivers on pass-happy teams. Outside of Amari Cooper, it's not worth it to use anything more than a last-round dart throw pick on any of the Browns' wide receivers.
Finally, Kevin Stefanski's tight end usage has been slightly above average in his time as an offensive play-caller, with his tight end room receiving 7.82 targets per game throughout his career.
This usage shows there is room for a Browns tight end to be a strong TE1 if they can get a lion's share of the receiving work. Because of this, David Njoku and Harrison Bryant are intriguing late-round targets for 2022 fantasy drafts.
2022 Offensive Coordinator: Alex Van Pelt
Alex Van Pelt has been an offensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills (2009) and Cleveland Browns (2020-Present). While he's not the team's primary play-caller, let's dive into some statistics from his time as an offensive coordinator – just in case Kevin Stefanski misses any games this year.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2020 Browns | 16 | 31.31 | 231.31 | 1.69 | 3.38 | 10.31 | 0.06 |
| 2021 Browns | 17 | 30.59 | 212.88 | 1.24 | 2.88 | 9.18 | 0.06 |
| Van Pelt's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 49 | 29.84 | 206.31 | 1.33 | 3.08 | 11.53 | 0.06 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2020 Browns | 16 | 26.88 | 132.63 | 1.13 | 3.63 | 4.63 | 29.38 | 0.31 |
| 2021 Browns | 17 | 24.41 | 130.35 | 0.94 | 4.65 | 5.76 | 39.18 | 0.18 |
| Van Pelt's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 49 | 24.63 | 119.84 | 0.78 | 4.31 | 5.53 | 34.41 | 0.20 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Browns | 16 | 10.19 | 15.38 | 144.63 | 0.75 |
| 2021 Browns | 17 | 8.29 | 14.88 | 110.18 | 0.41 |
| Van Pelt's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 49 | 8.90 | 15.49 | 121.88 | 0.65 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Browns | 16 | 5.63 | 8.69 | 56.06 | 0.56 |
| 2021 Browns | 17 | 5.59 | 8.35 | 61.94 | 0.59 |
| Van Pelt's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 49 | 4.63 | 7.18 | 47.43 | 0.41 |
Alex Van Pelt Takeaways & Expectations
Alex Van Pelt will be following Kevin Stefanski's lead since Stefanski is the team's current play-caller, but it's important to look at Van Pelt's history as an offensive coordinator just in case he needs to call some plays. Alex Van Pelt initially got thrown into the offensive coordinator role back in 2009 with the Buffalo Bills just days before the season began after Turk Schonert was fired. With that team, Van Pelt tried to minimize the passing attack as much as possible with the team averaging just 27.56 passing attempts per game.
The Browns have taken a similar approach the last two years with Van Pelt as the offensive coordinator, as the team has averaged just 30.94 passing attempts per game during this time. Based on this information, if Van Pelt ends up calling the plays in 2021 the passing philosophy should largely remain the same – low volume with decent efficiency.
Looking at the running back position, Alex Van Pelt has traditionally done a good job giving the position plenty of work. Throughout his career, his running backs have averaged 24.63 carries, 119.84 rushing yards, and 0.78 rushing touchdowns per game.
This usage and efficiency are very encouraging to see because it means that even if Kevin Stefanski passes off the offensive play-calling duties to Van Pelt, the team will still give their running backs a fair amount of work on the ground and be successful. How would that work potentially be distributed on the ground between the backs?
The data is a little murky. In 2009, Van Pelt took more of a bell-cow approach with the Buffalo Bills as Fred Jackson got 237 carries of the team's 362 season tailback carries (65.4%). In his two years with the Browns, he's followed more of a running back by committee approach with the team's lead back getting between 46-55% of the team's season tailback carries during this time. Looking ahead to 2022, it's likely we see the committee approach at running back that we've seen the last couple of years with the Browns. After this season if Van Pelt gets an offensive coordinator or head coaching job elsewhere where he gets to call the shots on offense, do not be surprised if he takes more of the bell-cow approach he took in Buffalo.
Finally, much like Stefanski, Alex Van Pelt doesn't feature his running backs frequently in the passing game with his tailbacks seeing 5.53 targets per game throughout his 49-game career as an offensive coordinator.
Overall, Alex Van Pelt appears to have largely similar beliefs in how to utilize the team's running backs as head coach Kevin Stefanski does. This bodes well for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and means they will get frequent usage even if the play-caller changes.
Jumping to how Alex Van Pelt utilizes his wide receivers, it is similar to head coach Kevin Stefanski – low volume. Throughout his career as an offensive coordinator, Van Pelt's wide receiver room has averaged just 15.49 targets per game.
Looking at the year-by-year data, it's clear that Alex Van Pelt is unlikely to provide a large workload to his wide receiver room. This means that you shouldn't expect any major changes in wide receiver usage if Alex Van Pelt ends up calling the plays for the Browns at any point this season, and the team's receivers should be viewed as late-round lottery tickets at best.
Moving to the tight end position, Alex Van Pelt didn't utilize the position much during his time in Buffalo but has seemed to change his tune a bit with the Browns. In his two seasons with the Browns, Alex Van Pelt has seen his tight end room average 8.52 targets per game.
Looking at the data, if Alex Van Pelt ever becomes the primary play-caller of the Browns it could result in Harrison Bryant and David Njoku being utilized slightly less than they would with Kevin Stefanski in charge, but overall their usage should be at least average regardless of who is calling the plays.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Deshaun Watson, Jacoby Brissett, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, D'Ernest Johnson, Jerome Ford, Amari Cooper, David Bell, Rashard Higgins, Michael Woods II, Anthony Schwartz, Demetric Felton, Harrison Bryant, and David Njoku
2022 Defense
2022 Defensive Coordinator: Joe Woods
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2020 Browns | 16 | 26.19 | 247.63 | 110.81 | 64.69 | 5.54 | 1.31 |
| 2021 Browns | 17 | 21.82 | 202.29 | 109.24 | 62.12 | 5.02 | 1.12 |
| Woods's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 65 | 23.4 | 223.69 | 107.28 | 62.54 | 5.29 | 1.31 |
Before being hired as the Cleveland Browns' defensive coordinator in 2020, Woods had previously served as a defensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos (2017-2018). Below are some of the team defensive statistics and charts of Woods's teams during his time as a defensive coordinator.
Other Notable Assistants
Special Teams Coordinator: Mike Priefer - Mike Priefer has been the Cleveland Browns Special Teams Coordinator since 2019. He's been a special teams coordinator at the NFL level since 2006, spending time in the role with the Kansas City Chiefs (2006-2008), Denver Broncos (2009-2010), and the Minnesota Vikings (2011-2018) before joining the Browns.
QB Coach: Drew Petzing - The one major change from last season's coaching staff is that the team will now have a quarterbacks coach after deciding not to have one last year: Drew Petzing. Petzing will be the Browns' quarterbacks coach after serving as the team's tight ends coach from 2020-to 2021. Before joining the Browns, he spent six seasons with the Minnesota Vikings working with quarterbacks and wide receivers.
RB Coach: Stump Mitchell - Stump Mitchell is one of the most experienced running backs coaches in the league and has been the Browns running backs coach since 2019. He's coached running backs at the NFL level for the Seattle Seahawks (1999-2007), Washington Redskins (2008-2009), Arizona Cardinals (2013-2016), and New York Jets (2017-2018) before joining the Browns. Mitchell is also the team's run game coordinator and was an NFL running back for 10 seasons with the St. Louis/Phoenix Cardinals (1981-1989) and the Kansas City Chiefs (1991).
WR Coach: Chad O'Shea - Chad O'Shea joined the Browns in 2020 as the passing game coordinator and as a wide receivers coach. He has previously been a wide receivers coach for the Minnesota Vikings (2006-2008) and the New England Patriots (2009-2018). In addition, O'Shea was also the Miami Dolphins' offensive coordinator during the 2019 NFL season.
TE Coach: T.C. McCartney - 2022 will be T.C. McCartney's first year as the Browns' tight ends coach after serving as an offensive assistant on the team from 2020-2021. He's previously spent time at the NFL level with the San Francisco 49ers (2015, 2017-2018) as an offensive assistant and with the Denver Broncos (2019) as the Broncos' quarterback's coach.
OL Coach: Bill Callahan - Bill Callahan has been coaching football since 1978, and has been the Browns' offensive line coach since 2020. Widely regarded as one of the best offensive line coaches in the league, Callahan was an offensive line coach for the Philadelphia Eagles (1995-1997), Oakland Raiders (1999-2001), New York Jets (2008-2011), Dallas Cowboys (2012-2014), and the Washington Redskins (2015-2019) before joining the Browns in 2020. He's also held roles as a head coach with Oakland Raiders (2002-2003) and as an offensive coordinator for the Oakland Raiders (1998-2001) and the Dallas Cowboys (2012-2014). Expect the Browns' offensive line to be one of the best in the league again this year under his watch.
DL Coach: Chris Kiffin - Chris Kiffin has been coaching since 2005 and served as the Browns' defensive line coach since 2020. He's previously spent time at the NFL level with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as an offseason quality control intern (2006) and the San Francisco 49ers as a pass rush specialist (2018-2019).
LB Coach: Jason Tarver - Jason Tarver became the Cleveland Browns linebackers coach in 2020. He's previously been a defensive coordinator for the Oakland Raiders (2012-2014) and served in a variety of roles with the San Francisco 49ers (2001-2010, 2015-2017) at the NFL level.
DB Coach: Jeff Howard - Jeff Howard joined the Cleveland Browns as the defensive backs coach in 2020. He's been coaching since 2007 and previously worked with the Minnesota Vikings in a variety of roles (2013-2019).
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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