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Eli Grabanski breaks down the 2022 Las Vegas Raiders' coaching staff in search of buy-lows, fantasy football sleepers, and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
The Las Vegas Raiders had an eventful 2021 season that led to the coaching staff being completely overhauled – gone are former head coach Jon Gruden, former interim head coach Rich Bisaccia, former offensive coordinator Greg Olson, and former defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. The new coaching regime will consist of head coach Josh McDaniels, offensive coordinator Mick Lombardi, and defensive coordinator Patrick Graham.
This article will look at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Raiders players' fantasy values in it.
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The Baseline
To get a better understanding of the value the Raiders coaches help bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Raiders' coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:
QB Impact
| Year | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
35.19 | 254.88 | 1.70 | 4.19 | 18.43 | 0.25 |
| 2021 League Average | 34.40 | 244.13 | 1.54 | 3.99 | 17.36 | 0.18 |
RB Impact
| Year | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
21.68 | 95.13 | 0.75 | 4.71 | 6.14 | 34.94 | 0.18 |
|
2021 League Average
|
21.66 | 92.20 | 0.69 | 4.82 | 6.22 | 36.36 | 0.19 |
WR Impact
| Year | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
13.24 | 20.21 | 166.67 | 1.04 |
|
2021 League Average
|
12.45 | 19.75 | 155.55 | 0.96 |
TE Impact
| Year | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
4.76 | 7.03 | 51.29 | 0.45 |
|
2021 League Average
|
4.77 | 6.93 | 50.44 | 0.37 |
Defense Impact
| Year | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 2020 League Average | 24.8 | 240.2 | 118.9 | 64.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
| 2021 League Average | 23.0 | 228.3 | 115.2 | 63.3 | 5.4 | 1.3 |
Previous Coaching Staff
In order to get an understanding of how the Las Vegas Raiders' fantasy players may be impacted this year, we also need to look at what kind of production former head coach Jon Gruden, former interim head coach Rich Bisaccia, former offensive coordinator Greg Olson, and former defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. By doing this, we will have a better understanding of where the new coaching staff is starting from and where the primary changes will occur.
Former Head Coach: Jon Gruden
Jon Gruden spent time as the Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator (1995-1997), the Oakland Raiders head coach (1998-2001), and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach (2002-2008) before making his way back to the Raiders in 2018. He was fired after an incident where his emails leaked just five games into the 2022 season. Below are some offensive statistics from his teams over the course of his career.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2020 Raiders | 16 | 34.44 | 273.94 | 1.75 | 3.06 | 14.81 | 0.25 |
| 2021 Raiders | 5 | 41 | 321 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 12.4 | 0 |
| Gruden's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 277 | 33.49 | 233.43 | 1.34 | 2.87 | 10.74 | 0.08 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2020 Raiders | 16 | 24.63 | 101.56 | 1 | 4.63 | 5.94 | 31.44 | 0 |
| 2021 Raiders | 5 | 19.8 | 64.4 | 0.8 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 43 | 0 |
| Gruden's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 277 | 22.80 | 94.86 | 0.57 | 4.74 | 6.68 | 37.05 | 0.07 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Raiders | 16 | 9.69 | 14.81 | 146.94 | 0.88 |
| 2021 Raiders | 5 | 13.2 | 19.6 | 198.6 | 0.8 |
| Gruden's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 277 | 10.54 | 17.56 | 141.86 | 0.81 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Raiders | 16 | 8 | 10.75 | 88.69 | 0.81 |
| 2021 Raiders | 5 | 6.6 | 11 | 74.8 | 0.6 |
| Gruden's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 277 | 3.77 | 5.70 | 41.34 | 0.39 |
Former Offensive Coordinator: Greg Olson
Greg Olson held an offensive coordinator role for the Detroit Lions (2005), St. Louis Rams (2006-2007), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2009-2011), Oakland Raiders (2013-2014), Jacksonville Jaguars (2015-2016), and the Las Vegas Raiders (2018-2021). Below are some statistics from his career as an offensive coordinator.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2020 Raiders | 16 | 34.44 | 273.94 | 1.75 | 3.06 | 14.81 | 0.25 |
| 2021 Raiders | 17 | 36.94 | 282.82 | 1.35 | 3.24 | 11.59 | 0.06 |
| Olson's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 205 | 35.24 | 244.27 | 1.40 | 2.99 | 13.83 | 0.08 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2020 Raiders | 16 | 24.63 | 101.56 | 1 | 4.63 | 5.94 | 31.44 | 0 |
| 2021 Raiders | 17 | 20.29 | 81.59 | 0.76 | 6.35 | 7.82 | 46.12 | 0.06 |
| Olson's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 205 | 20.91 | 85.39 | 0.51 | 5.07 | 6.66 | 38.74 | 0.07 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Raiders | 16 | 9.69 | 14.81 | 146.94 | 0.88 |
| 2021 Raiders | 17 | 13.12 | 18.65 | 169.94 | 0.94 |
| Olson's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 205 | 11.05 | 18.93 | 145.19 | 0.90 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Raiders | 16 | 8 | 10.75 | 88.69 | 0.81 |
| 2021 Raiders | 17 | 5.18 | 8.29 | 61.76 | 0.29 |
| Olson's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 205 | 4.98 | 7.68 | 54.86 | 0.38 |
Former Defensive Coordinator: Gus Bradley
Gus Bradley joined the Las Vegas Raiders coaching staff during the 2021 offseason as the team's defensive coordinator, Bradley had been a defensive coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks (2009-2012) and Los Angeles Chargers (2017-2020). In addition, Bradley served as the Jacksonville Jaguars' head coach from 2014 to 2016. Below are some of the team defensive statistics of these teams during Gus Bradley's time as the defensive coordinator.
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2020 Chargers | 16 | 26.63 | 223.63 | 119.81 | 62.31 | 5.51 | 1.19 |
| 2021 Raiders | 17 | 25.82 | 222.88 | 114.29 | 64.88 | 5.20 | 0.88 |
| Bradley's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 207 | 23.36 | 227.60 | 115.86 | 64.19 | 5.36 | 1.31 |
2022 Offense
2022 Head Coach: Josh McDaniels
Josh McDaniels was brought in to be the new Las Vegas Raiders head coach in 2022. He previously was the New England Patriots offensive coordinator from 2006 to 2008 before he was hired as the Denver Broncos head coach (2009-2010). He flamed out as a head coach there and latched on as the St. Louis Rams offensive coordinator (2011) before coming back to New England in 2012 where he stayed through the 2021 season. Given his offensive background, let's take a look at some statistics of his teams from his time as an offensive coordinator or head coach.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2020 Patriots | 16 | 27.5 | 195.25 | 0.75 | 9.06 | 37.94 | 0.75 |
| 2021 Patriots | 17 | 31.47 | 241.06 | 1.41 | 3.24 | 7.12 | 0 |
| McDaniels's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 253 | 35.67 | 260.70 | 1.70 | 3.00 | 7.25 | 0.13 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2020 Patriots | 16 | 21.31 | 102.81 | 0.5 | 5.44 | 7.06 | 46.06 | 0.31 |
| 2021 Patriots | 17 | 24 | 108 | 1.41 | 5.24 | 6.24 | 44.82 | 0.12 |
| McDaniels's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 253 | 24.30 | 104.22 | 0.89 | 5.16 | 7.04 | 45.04 | 0.27 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Patriots | 16 | 10.5 | 16.44 | 128.94 | 0.25 |
| 2021 Patriots | 17 | 11.35 | 17.24 | 140.94 | 0.71 |
| McDaniels's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 253 | 13.08 | 21.12 | 160.97 | 0.96 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Patriots | 16 | 1.13 | 2 | 15.88 | 0.06 |
| 2021 Patriots | 17 | 4.59 | 7.06 | 52.76 | 0.59 |
| McDaniels's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 253 | 4.04 | 6.49 | 52.02 | 0.43 |
2022 Offensive Coordinator: Mick Lombardi
| Mick Lombardi's Coaching Career | ||
| Year | Team | Role |
| 2009 | Fordham | Coach Ast. |
| 2010 | Fordham | Coach Ast. |
| 2013 | San Francisco 49ers | Ast. To HC |
| 2014 | San Francisco 49ers | Off. Ast. |
| 2015 | San Francisco 49ers | Def. Ast. |
| 2016 | San Francisco 49ers |
Off. Quality Control
|
| 2017 | New York Jets | Off. Ast. |
| 2018 | New York Jets | Off. Ast. |
| 2019 | New England Patriots | Ast. QB Coach |
| 2020 | New England Patriots | WR Coach |
| 2021 | New England Patriots | WR Coach |
Josh McDaniels Takeaways & Expectations
Because Mick Lombardi has no experience as an offensive coordinator at any level and Josh McDaniels is the primary play-caller anyway, we will primarily talk about Josh McDaniels's history as an offensive play-caller in this section.
Over the course of Josh McDaniels's 253-game career as an offensive play-caller, his offense has averaged 35.67 passing attempts, 260.70 passing yards, and 1.70 passing touchdowns per game – right around the NFL league averages for the past couple of years. With Derek Carr as the starting quarterback, it's likely that this offense is in the middle of the pack in passing attempts once again in 2022.
Besides passing, it's also important to look at the amount of rushing work that a quarterback may receive since it can provide a major boost to their fantasy production.
For the most part, Josh McDaniels has not seen his quarterbacks take off and run much – with the exception of the 2020 season where he worked with one of the best running quarterbacks of all time in Cam Newton. Over the course of his career, McDaniels's QB room has averaged just three carries per game – meaning his offense has generally been below the league average in this area. It's likely that the number of rushing attempts remains below average for the 2022 season since Derek Carr doesn't take off frequently. Overall, Derek Carr should be looked at as a reliable QB2 for the 2022 season based on his projected workload and talent.
Moving onto Josh McDaniels's running back room, he's got a pretty good outlook for the most part. Over the course of the 253 games that McDaniels has been in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role, his running back room has averaged 24.30 carries, 104.22 rushing yards, and 0.89 rushing touchdowns per game – all of which are above league average.
Josh McDaniels has been pretty reliable in providing his running backs with work on the ground over the course of his career, but besides the amount of volume (carries) on the ground that McDaniels has historically provided, we also need to consider how that volume has been distributed over the course of his career – is McDaniels rolling with a bell-cow or a running back by committee approach?
Over the course of his career, Josh McDaniels has never given his lead tailback on the season more than 73% of the team's tailback carries and seems to largely prefer a running back by committee approach on the ground. Based on this information, there's a good chance that we see the percentage of carries going to Josh Jacobs drop a little bit in 2022, and a few more carries going Zamir White and Kenyan Drake's way.
The final aspect we should look at regarding Josh McDaniels's running backs is how much he has traditionally utilized them as pass-catchers. Over the course of his career, McDaniels's running back room has averaged 7.04 targets per game – which is slightly above league average.
McDaniels has generally provided his running backs with a slightly above-average number of targets over the course of his career, which bodes well for the Raiders' primary pass-catching back. Overall, expect Josh Jacobs to be in more of the low-end RB2/high-end RB3 range for fantasy leagues in 2022.
Looking at the wide receiver position, McDaniels has provided his wide receivers with 21.12 targets per game over the course of his 253-game career as an offensive play-caller.
McDaniels's overall career averages suggest that his offense provides an above-average number of targets to his wide receivers, but it's been a different story in recent years. Since the 2015 season, his wide receiver room has averaged over twenty targets per game just once (in 2019). Considering the McDaniels will have one of the best wide receivers in the league to work with in Davante Adams, it is very likely that Adams sees 10+ targets per game and as a result, the group as a whole sees around an average number of targets per game in 2022. Feel good about investing in Davante Adams as a WR1, but the rest of the Raiders receivers will have their fantasy upside as more in the FLEX range.
Lastly, McDaniels's historical usage of tight ends has been up-and-down. Over the course of his career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role, McDaniels's tight end room has averaged 6.49 targets per game.
Looking at the graph above, McDaniels has utilized his tight ends early and often some years – like in 2012, 2014, or 2015. However, there are also years where he's barely utilized them at all – like 2018, 2019, and 2020. Because he will be working with one of the best receiving tight ends in the league in Darren Waller, we should expect him to feature the position more on the higher end of the spectrum. Darren Waller should be once again in the mix to be a top-five fantasy tight end for the 2022 season and a strong bounce-back target in fantasy drafts.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Derek Carr, Nick Mullens, Jarrett Stidham, Josh Jacobs, Kenyan Drake, Zamir White, Brandon Bolden, Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, Keelan Cole, Demarcus Robinson, Mack Hollins, Tyron Johnson, Darren Waller, Foster Moreau, and Jacob Hollister
2022 Defense
2022 Defensive Coordinator: Patrick Graham
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2020 Giants | 16 | 22.31 | 237.94 | 111.38 | 65.38 | 5.34 | 1.38 |
| 2021 Giants | 17 | 24.47 | 225.82 | 129 | 66.88 | 5.31 | 1.29 |
| Graham's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 49 | 25.86 | 241.71 | 125.33 | 66.04 | 5.56 | 1.22 |
Prior to joining the Las Vegas Raiders coaching staff this offseason as the team's defensive coordinator, Patrick Graham had served as the defensive coordinator for the Miami Dolphins (2019) and the New York Giants (2020-2021). Let's take a look at some team statistics from his career as a defensive coordinator.
Other Notable Assistants
Special Teams Coordinator: Tom McMahon - The Las Vegas Raiders will bring in Tom McMahon to be the new special teams coordinator in 2022 after Rich Bisaccia left to join the Green Bay Packers. McMahon has been coaching football at the NFL level since 2007 and has served as a special teams coordinator for the St. Louis Rams (2009-2011), Kansas City Chiefs (2012), Indianapolis Colts (2013-2017), and Denver Broncos (2018-2021) in the past.
QB Coach: Bo Hardegree - After not having an official quarterbacks coach during the 2021 season, the Raiders decided to bring in Bo Hardegree to be the team's quarterbacks coach for the 2022 season. Hardegree has been coaching football since 2008 and has previous experience as an NFL quarterbacks coach with the Miami Dolphins (2016-2018).
RB Coach: Kennedy Polamalu - The Raiders will have a new running backs coach in 2022 as the team goes from Kirby Wilson to Kennedy Polamalu. Polamalu has coached at the NFL and college levels since 1992. He's previously worked as a running backs coach for the Cleveland Browns (2004), Jacksonville Jaguars (2005-2009), and Minnesota Vikings (2017-2021) at the NFL level.
WR Coach: Edgar Bennett - Same - Edgar Bennett is one of the few carryovers from the previous Raiders coaching regime and has been the Raiders' wide receivers coach since 2018. He previously coached for the Green Bay Packers as the running backs coach (2005-2010), wide receivers coach (2011-2014), and offensive coordinator (2015-2017). Bennett also played fullback/running back in the NFL for the Green Bay Packers (1992-1997) and Chicago Bears (1998-1999).
TE Coach: As of the time this article was written, the Raiders have still not decided who will replace Austin King as the team's tight ends coach for the 2022 season.
OL Coach: Carmen Bricillo - The Raiders will have a new offensive line coach in 2022, going from Tom Cable to Carmen Bricillo. Bricillo has coached football since 2003 and most recently worked as an offensive line coach for the New England Patriots (2021).
DL Coach: Frank Okam - The Raiders will have a new defensive line coach in 2022, going from Rod Marinelli to Frank Okam. Okam has been coaching football since 2014 and most recently served as the defensive line coach for the Carolina Panthers (2021). He also played in the NFL for the Houston Texans (2008-2010), Seattle Seahawks (2010), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2010-2012).
LB Coach: Antonio Pierce - Another change to the Raiders coaching staff will be at linebackers coach, as the team goes from Richard Smith to Antonio Pierce. This will be Pierce's first coaching job at the NFL level, with his most recent coaching position at Arizona State as the associate head coach and defensive coordinator (2021). He also played in the NFL for the Washington Redskins (2001-2004) and the New York Giants (2005-2009).
DB Coach: Chris Ash - The Raiders will also be making a change at defensive backs coach, going from Ron Milus to Chris Ash. Ash coached in a variety of roles at the college level from 1997 to 2020 before making the jump to the NFL in 2021 as the Jacksonville Jaguars safeties coach (2021).
Enjoy this series? Be sure to check out all of the other 'Coaching Matters' team previews!
AFC North: Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals
AFC South: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, and Los Angeles Chargers
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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