Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:


Already have an account? Log in here.


Forgot Password


Buy or Sell - Undervalued and Overvalued Players for Week 4

We are nearly a month into the fantasy baseball season and it is a prime time to buy in on players whose production could be legit/should be better, or hop off the sinking ships while there is still some semblance of hope. As we all should know, baseball is a game of ebbs and flows. When there is too much good, expect some bad, and vice-versa.

The phrase Buy or sell is a bit looser than it typically would be mid-season or closer to fantasy playoff time. The players covered, for the most part, are guys I am either wary of or tentatively interested in. We are walking a fine line here in the first month. Various factors play into good/bad season starts such as tough schedules with rough ballpark (or vice-versa), nagging injuries, poor team performance, and even the weather.

You still want to be as ahead of the curve as possible, and I am here to help with that. Let's take a look at what we've seen thus far.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season MLB Premium Pass for 50% off, with exclusive access to our season-long articles, 15 in-season lineup tools and over 200 days of expert DFS research/tools. Sign Up Now!


Undervalued Players - Week 4

Anthony Rizzo - (1B, CHC)

98% owned

Anthony Rizzo's been pretty cold all year despite some decent run and RBI production. His batting average is abysmal and he only has one home run over the past two weeks, making right now the perfect time to buy. Rizzo struggled through March/April last season and proceeded to bounce back fine afterward. He has a long enough track record to trust that regression will rear the better side of its face soon. Wrigley Field is a cruel mistress at times, and April is especially rough on its hitters. Once the weather gets warmer and the wind starts blowing out more often, Rizzo will do what he has been doing over the past half decade.

He's had a ton of bad luck (.208 BABIP), possibly due to the fact that he has increased his fly ball rate but that should regress as the year goes on. His hard hit percentage has jumped above 40 percent for the first time in his career and he's pulling the ball a lot less. The power is still there, as displayed by his three home runs, but he could take a slight ding ROS if he continues to hit to the opposite field. The lineup is still great and so is Rizzo. It is probably harder to swindle him from an owner in an OBP league but if they are discontent with the lack of recent counting stats, take advantage of the situation. Snatch him if you can, it is always worth it.


Jose Martinez - (1B/OF, STL)

30% owned

This is more of a temporary add, but still worthwhile. Jose Martinez had been blocked from starting this year due to his garbage defensive abilities along with the addition of Paul Goldschmidt in the offseason. However, with present injuries to Harrison Bader and Tyler O'Neill, play time has opened up for Martinez.

In his five-game start streak since Bader's injury, Martinez has accumulated four runs, four RBI, a home run with a hit in every game. He is arguably the best hitter for average on the roster and is batting fifth behind a very talented top-of-the-order. He is in a position to continually score in runners over this next week or two. Although he is more of a stream, for the time being, Martinez is a definite hold in deeper leagues given that he could get traded to an AL team by the deadline to DH full-time.

He's a must-own in all formats while starting. Despite not taking a walk all season, he is probably still value in OBP leagues due to the high floor provided by his batting skills. If Martinez is dropped when he loses the gig, he is someone to keep an eye on if the rumor mill heats up.


Hunter Dozier - (1B/3B, KC)

45% owned

Right now, I would rather own Hunter Dozier instead of Brian Dozier. Not sure if that is much of a take or not, but felt like it should be out there. Hunter Dozier might be breaking out. It was probably better to get in on him from the ground floor a week ago, but he should still be available in plenty of leagues. Dozier is a former first-round pick who is finally putting it all together (from what it seems). He has cut his strikeout rate and raised his walk rate to respectable levels. There's no BABIP luck and he is mashing. Everything looks pretty legit.

The team context is bad and so is his home park, which is unfortunate. However, he is typically batting clean up to make up for these factors. Dozier is a must-grab player, although he is more speculative than star for now. If he does pan out though, his abilities allow him to provide value in all league formats. If this is all a fluke, he can be dropped without hesitation. Maybe pitchers adjust back to him, maybe they don't. The current production is worth finding that out.


Overvalued Players - Week 4

Corey Seager (SS, LAD)

97% owned

As a Dodgers fan, this one hurts to write. Seager had Tommy John surgery last season and missed a majority of the year. On top of that, an offseason hip surgery sidelined him even further. Although he is back to playing full-time, he just does not look the same at the plate. The discipline is better than ever to his credit, however, he is not hitting the ball as hard as he used to and with the increased launch angle, he is hitting more fly balls than ever. While his home run output could catch up to his career norm, his batting average will continue to take a hit if he sticks with this approach. The BABIP is slightly below his career rate, but around where it would be for a heavy fly-ball hitter with decent power.

Luckily, for owners in OBP leagues, his batting average is worthless, and the 13 percent walk rate he currently carries should be more than enough to keep him in the green. My worry is for owners in standard leagues. Seager never stole too many bases, and with a hit to his average, he is set to only provide three categories, rather than his typical four.

If Seager could be sold off to someone who expects his average to stabilize ROS, I would jump on that. Maybe a trade for the currently injured Jean Segura who should continue to outperform him when he returns from the IL.


Kyle Freeland - (SP, COL)

72% owned

If a pitcher has to play half of his games in Coors field, I am worried about their production. I do not care how talented they are, nor does it matter if they Freeland is a gifted starter and has had prior success at home. His ERA last season was a full point better in Coors than away. While that may be astounding, it is more than likely to remain an outlier in his profile.

Consistently pitching well in Denver's thin air is nearly impossible. Despite his pedigree as a former eighth overall pick, Freeland should struggle in various starts at home throughout the year. His performance against Philadelphia on Thursday at home was very impressive and could be enough to convince a league-mate that he's worth buying. Freeland's underlying numbers should remain very good all season thanks to his stuff, but the outcomes may be less than optimal. His K rate, K-to-walk, and SIERA have improved each of the past three seasons, and it still might not matter if he gets unlucky at home.


Wil Myers (1B/OF, SD)

88% owned

Call me a skeptic, but I do not trust Wil Myers to stay healthy all year. Since his first full season in 2014, he has played in more half seasons than full seasons. He has chronic arm issues that could be stemming from a wrist injury suffered in 2014 and has dealt with a medley of other injuries that have kept him on the DL/IL. Myers is now playing outfield fulltime rather than the infield, which could be even more detrimental to his health. If I owned him, I would be holding my breath every time he reached the warning track.

Regardless of the injury risk, Myers is striking out more than ever, walking less, and playing with a BABIP nearly 100 points higher than his career average. His home run and stolen base production through the first few weeks could give him decent trade value. Shop him around to OF needy teams, take any comparable upgrade in return.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice

More Recent Articles


Waiver Wire Express - Week 12 Lightning Round

We're onto Week 12, which means the last of the bye weeks approaches. The Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs and Vikings hit the hammocks as we can finally start to look at players without worrying about future offweeks. To help you look towards those precious playoff weeks, here is the waiver wire lightning round heading into Week... Read More

Fantasy Football News and Injuries - Running Updates

Below is a quick-hit list of running notes on relevant injuries and player news, including pre-game reports and live in-game updates. Stay tuned for updates all throughout the week and on Sunday morning game day:   Week 11 Marlon Mack has a hand injury and has been ruled out for the game. Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) will... Read More

Week 11 Chat - Live Fantasy Football Game Day Q&A

It's Sunday Morning Week 11... Do You Know Who to Start? Each Sunday morning of the NFL season, RotoBaller's experts will be moderating the industry's leading live chat room and answering a bunch of your fantasy football questions, from around 10:30 AM to 1:00 PM ET. Come join in on the fun, and get your... Read More

Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Matchups Analysis for Week 11

Welcome to our Week 11 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering every single contest from the Sunday slate in one convenient location, helping you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries and other... Read More

Week 11 Start/Sit: Monday Night Football Matchups Analysis

Welcome back to Mexico City. Last season, the Chiefs were supposed to take on the Rams in this game before field conditions moved the game to Los Angeles. Even though the game was moved, the fantasy output was amazing as both teams scored over 50 points and there was not an unhappy fan among us.... Read More

Wide Receiver / Cornerback Matchups To Target in Week 11

In Week 10, the Buccaneers defeated the Cardinals in a game that featured a whopping 57 points scored between the two teams. Christian Kirk was expected to exploit the Buccaneers weak secondary, and he exceeded all expectations by catching three touchdowns, finishing as the No. 1 wide receiver on the week. On the other side... Read More

Holiday Shopping - Who To Buy For The Playoffs Run

As the fantasy football season nears the home stretch, most owners should begin turning their eyes towards the remaining six weeks of the fantasy schedule. Either you're comfortably in the playoffs and need to see who you should be rostering in order to get the best matchups or you need that extra boost to qualify... Read More

Updated Week 11 PPR Rankings (Top 300)

Welcome to Week 11 RotoBallers. Below are our updated consensus Week 11 PPR rankings for fantasy football, including some running notes on relevant injuries, player news and rankings updates: Emmanuel Sanders is officially active. George Kittle (ankle, knee) has officially been ruled out. Matt Breida will not play in Week 11. Jay Ajayi was signed by the... Read More

The King's Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Week 11

Welcome to Week 11, RotoBallers! Below you will find some of my spotlight plays and tough lineup decisions for the upcoming week of the fantasy football season. These player selections are based on my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller's NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a... Read More

Woos and Boos - Starts and Sits for Week 11 Lineups

If we learned anything from the fantasy scoring in Week 10 is that hitting on the right quarterback can make or break your week. Sure, the household names like Lamar Jackson (35.65 FP) and Patrick Mahomes (34.30 FP) paced the field, but it was the play from lesser QBs like Daniel Jones (33.40 FP) and... Read More

Week 11 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More

Week 11 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Below are RotoBaller's Week 11 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 11 of the NFL and fantasy football season. In case you missed it, this is our seventh year now writing this weekly column. Our weekly tiered defense rankings are a guide to making waiver... Read More

Week 11 Stream Team - Free Agent and Bye-Week Streamers

Now that the bye weeks are in full swing; streaming becomes a more viable and almost necessary strategy. Knowing who to add and when to start them could be the ultimate difference-maker in a weekly matchup. Making the right streaming decisions throughout the season could easily be the difference between missing the playoffs and having... Read More

Fantasy Football Booms, Busts - Philip Rivers, Devin Singletary, O.J. Howard

Fantasy football players are going to have to go under the radar to find booms and busts this week because many of the NFL’s superstars will be on bye. Fantasy footballers will not be getting any Aaron Jones touchdown runs or Daniel Jones touchdown tosses this week, nor will they be getting any 300-yard passing... Read More

Late-Season Fantasy Football Surgers and Breakouts

Winning a fantasy football championship is about finding the right mix of players at the right time. It’s not easy to do, because it takes a full season process to build a roster that can win it all. You must start by drafting well, then making the right deals, pinpointing the best waiver pickups, and... Read More