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Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/2/2025). Bet his strikeout props (K props) for strikeouts thrown and win money betting on MLB player props.
Some of my favorite MLB player props to wager daily are pitcher strikeout props! Did you know that strikeout rates - among pitchers and hitters - are some of the most stable statistics in baseball? Sure, players will fluctuate throughout the year on a game-by-game basis and from year to year, but we usually get a pretty good sense of how strikeout percentages will look within the first four to five starts for pitchers and 150 at-bats for hitters.
If you're impatient like me, you can't wait for all that data, and you want to make some bets early in the season based on prior results and projected improvements or regression for hitters and pitchers. I'll still be grounding my picks in research, but with the caveat that there is still a high degree of variability this early in the season, with pitch counts being monitored and sample sizes remaining small.
In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Wednesday, April 2, 2025. All odds are from either DraftKings or FanDuel sportsbooks, but I encourage you to shop around for the best price with other books as well.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Strikeout Prop Picks
Here are the starting pitchers I'll cover for Wednesday, April 2:
- Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays
- Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
- Jeffrey Springs, Athletics
- Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs
- Clay Holmes, New York Mets
- Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox
Ryan Pepiot OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-102 FanDuel)
This is my most confident pick of the day, even if it hurts to pick on my beleaguered Pittsburgh Pirates. I was extremely high on Ryan Pepiot this season, and he did not disappoint in his first start against the Rockies, whiffing eight and needing just 85 pitches to complete six frames.
Ryan Pepiot Today
6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, 85 Pitches
16 Whiff
33% Whiff%
29% CSW%Pepiot was dominant today with his CH, generating a 62% whiff% (8/13) and 48% CSW%. He looks ready to deliver a breakout season for Tampa Bay!pic.twitter.com/0VrM6X3zJz
— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) March 28, 2025
The Rockies were a great matchup for Pepiot to get going right out of the gate, as they are striking out a ton and not walking much. We can see that the books are already adjusting to the Rockies' early struggles as they have set Zack Wheeler's strikeout prop at 8.5 today, which is a bit too high for my liking, but I won't be surprised if he gets there. I'll likely be on Wheeler's walk prop instead, but this article is about strikeout props, so let's get back to Pepiot.
In his debut, the powerful righty demonstrated pinpoint control, walking just one hitter. The Pirates strike out a lot against righties (25%) but also walk quite a bit (11%). I'm not worried about walks tonight with Pepiot's command, and I think he can build off what his teammate Shane Baz did last night when he whiffed ten Pirates in a 7-0 victory.
Pepiot had an 18.8% SwStr%, and his Stuff+ graded out at 113. His fastball gets above-average IVB (induced vertical break), and if his changeup is going to be as filthy as it was last week, that combo of pitches is going to be incredibly difficult for hitters all season long.
Paul Skenes OVER 7.5 strikeouts (-115 DraftKings)
For this one, we are betting more on the pitcher than the matchup, as Tampa is surprisingly off to a very good start at the plate in terms of making contact. We should note that their current strikeout rate (15%) is likely skewed by the lack of tough matchups, as they faced the Rockies and then Pittsburgh's worst starter so far.
Paul Skenes is a beast and ready to continue his dominance of the league in year two. He posted a 35% K% and a strong 15% SwStr% in his debut, striking out seven Marlins in 5+ innings.
We need him to get eight punchouts tonight, but I think it's doable if Skenes pounds the strike zone and avoids the free passes. He had one of the best Z-Contact % of any starter going today (78.9%), which shows that he can blow pitches past hitters in the zone without getting them to chase.
His Stuff+ checked in at 120 in the opener, which was bested only by Hunter Greene's 132 on opening day. I'm banking on Skenes dominating in front of the home crowd and being the stopper for this Pirates team that has struggled early this season.
Freddy Peralta OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-155 FanDuel)
Peralta had eight strikeouts in his debut against a Yankees lineup that went on to hit a million home runs against the rest of the Brewers' rotation. Peralta has a solid history of being an elite strikeout artist, so it wasn't a surprise to see him dominate on opening day. His underlying numbers all look good and are consistent with what he's done in the past.
Freddy Peralta, Dirty 90mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/YjdHag2Jk6
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 27, 2025
He was very fastball-changeup heavy in his debut, but his slider generated a 75% whiff rate when he deployed it. He's reshaped it a bit this year, and it's even registering as a curveball on Statcast because of the increased vertical break and less horizontal movement.
The Royals are a neutral matchup, but this number is too low for Peralta, who should have had his prop set at 6.5 or higher for much of the season. We have to pay some juice here, but if you head over to FanDuel, you can get a better deal than on DK.
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Jeffrey Springs OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+125 DraftKings)
Jeffrey Springs is officially back; put the rest of the league on notice! Springs had a very promising start to his career as a starter with Tampa Bay before he was derailed by a major arm injury that cost him an entire season and a half. But he's getting a chance at a new life with the Athletics, who have installed him as the ace of their rotation.
Jeffrey Springs, Dirty 80mph Changeup. 👌
6Ks thru 4. pic.twitter.com/6KNbCQeCU3
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 29, 2025
Springs was phenomenal in his 2025 debut, striking out nine Mariners on his way to a 42.9% K% and a massive 19.3% K%. Despite not having an overpowering fastball, Springs was able to elicit whiffs from hitters in the zone with a 66.7% Z-Contact%.
He has elite control of all his pitches and works ahead of hitters constantly. He's pitching at home here (ballpark downgrade) against a good Cubs offense, but he has the kind of stuff to get six any time out, and we are getting him at plus odds today as the books (and bettors) don't have faith that he can do it again. He can! I think he will get there tonight, and this is my favorite odds-based play of the evening.
Jameson Taillon UNDER 4.5 strikeouts (-155 FanDuel)
Staying in the same game, we have a pitcher from Chicago who struggles to generate whiffs. Taillon had a 4.5% strikeout rate in his first outing and just a 6.3% SwStr%. Those are the worst numbers of any pitcher on this slate.
And he's not going to get bailed out by the Athletics, either. This team has an underrated offense, and they are striking out just 19.2% of the time so far against RHP, despite facing some really good pitchers in the Seattle series. Taillon is an easy under tonight, but again, look for better odds on FanDuel; the juice is extremely high on DK.
Clay Holmes OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-165 DraftKings)
Holmes was a bit of a disappointment in his Mets debut, but I am going to cut him some slack. He was facing a very tough Astros lineup and still adjusting to being a starter full-time. He did get four strikeouts in that outing, but he also walked four and was not the same pitcher that we saw look dominant in spring training.
This is a great bounce-back spot for Holmes today as he faces Miami, a team with a weak lineup that doesn't walk much and has a high K%. The Marlins are striking out 27% of the time against RHP, and we saw Kodai Senga have his way with them last night.
Holmes's stuff may not quite be on Senga's level, but I firmly believe he will be a 22-24% strikeout pitcher this season when the dust settles. The over is juiced in a big way, but for good reason, as the matchup for Holmes is as good as it gets, and bettors are anxious to attack those 4.5 numbers with decent pitchers any chance they get.
Garrett Crochet OVER 7.5 strikeouts (+125 FanDuel)
One final bounceback spot tonight that I am targeting is Garrett Crochet against the Baltimore Orioles. Crochet put up only four strikeouts in his Boston debut against Texas, but there are some reasons to believe that he pitched better than the box score showed.
He still finished with a 15.9% SwStr% and 75.7% Z-Contact%. Those rates are excellent and in line with the dominant pitching we saw from Crochet last season. He was able to throw 88 pitches, so he could be allowed to go for 90+ today in this one, and Baltimore is a matchup he could exploit as they will send eight righties up to the plate to face him.
Last season, Crochet destroyed lefties but was still very good against righties with a 33.8% K% on the season. Getting up to eight is not easy for any pitcher, but let's not forget we are talking about one of the most dominant strikeout pitchers we saw in the league last season. We are getting great odds here, and I'm willing to take a shot on Crochet putting up a big number in his second start of the season.
Good luck if you're tailing any or all of these picks, and thanks for reading!
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