Alex Burns' 2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Rankings and Draft Analysis

October 3, 2022

Alex Burnss 2022-2022 fantasy basketball draft rankings for 9-category head-to-head (H2H) leagues. Read the NBA players he's higher on and lower on.

I know what you're probably thinking."Fantasy basketball rankings in September? We haven't even begun training camp. Does he have nothing better to do with his time?" While I do find myself suffering from significant boredom during the NBA offseason, I want to clarify one thing: It is NEVER too early to begin discussing fantasy hoops.

Savvy fantasy basketball managers will use this time to prepare while the masses are focused on fantasy football. Talk about getting a leg up on the competition!

Now that we're on the same page, I'm proud to release my early draft rankings for the upcoming season! After carefully analyzing every offseason report, trade, free agency signing, and summer league performance to date, these rankings should at least give you a glimpse into how I view the current fantasy basketball landscape. In addition, I will highlight a couple of guys that I'm either higher or lower on than the current consensus (Yahoo!). Enough with the talk. Let's get right into it. Below is the first installment of my Top 150 9-Category draft rankings for the 2022-2023 fantasy basketball season.

9-Category Head-to-Head Rankings

My Guys - Players I'm Higher On

I am higher than the Yahoo! consensus on the following players

Robert Covington (PF, LAC) - Yahoo Ranking: 106, Alex Ranking: 69

All aboard! I am proud to say that I am officially back on the RoCo train in fantasy this season. Sure, there have been a few rough patches along the way, but it's tough to ignore his production with the Clippers last year. After being acquired in February, he went on to post 10.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 1.2 blocks in 23 games. The best part? He did it with uber efficiency, finishing with 50%/45%/85% shooting splits.

The Clippers were so impressed they even extended him for two years, $24 million back in May as a result. His skillset should fit in nicely alongside Kawhi Leonard and Paul George and we all know he doesn't need a ton of playing time to produce fantasy-friendly numbers. After all, his production with the Clippers last season came in only 22 minutes a night.

His propensity to stretch the floor and rack up defensive stats should easily allow him to flirt with top 75 numbers this season. Don't forget, Covington finished as a top 75 guy back in 2020-21 on the following numbers: 8.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.2 blocks on 40%/38%/80% shooting splits.

Brandon Clarke (PF, MEM) - Yahoo Ranking: 97, Alex Ranking: 61

Alright, I'm going to say it. When I think of Clarke in fantasy this season, I get strong 2020 Richaun Holmes vibes. Believe it or not, Holmes finished the 2020 season as the 33rd best player in per-game value and the 30th best player in overall value. His stats? 14.2 points, 8.3 rebounds, 0.6 steals, and 1.6 blocks on 63.7% from the field and 79.4% from the charity stripe.

Now, before labeling me a loon for comparing him to Clarke, hear me out. At the beginning of July, it was announced that fellow Grizzlies' big man, Jaren Jackson Jr., would be out 4-6 months after undergoing surgery to repair a stress fracture in his foot. This is significant for two reasons: 1) Jackson Jr. has missed 126 total games over his first three seasons. If you think the Grizzlies are going to rush him back, you're on crazy pills. 2) Clarke's game was ascending towards the end of the season. After seeing 19.5 minutes a night during the regular season, his playing time was increased to 24.7 mpg during the playoffs, where he averaged 12.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.8 blocks, and 0.8 steals on 61% from the field.

His subpar free throw shooting (70% career) and lack of a three-point game does hurt his value, but he should be given the green light for Memphis right out of the gate. While I'm not predicting a top 30 season for Clarke, he certainly has the upside to achieve it.

Walker Kessler (C - UTA) - Yahoo Ranking: 220, Alex Ranking: 102

Are you ready for the Jazz's current centers based on their official depth chart? Here it goes. Walker Kessler, Cody Zeller, Udoka Azubuike, and wait for it, Rudy Gay. Sure, newcomers like Lauri Markkanen, Kelly Olynyk, and Jarred Vanderbilt can play the five, but it's not their natural position. Kessler on the other hand is a Bonafide big man. Standing at 7-1 with a 7-4 wingspan, he's one of the most accomplished shot blockers to come out of college in years. Just look at what he was able to do last year at Auburn:

• Led the nation with 4.6 blocks per game
• Averaged 10 blocks per 100 possessions
• Finished with more total blocked shots than all but 13 Division I schools

So, yeah. Even if you cut his blocks in half, he would still find himself in elite territory. The aforementioned Zeller could definitely take some minutes away but playing him over Kessler serves the rebuilding Jazz zero purpose. Additionally, he does shoot the ball poorly from the free throw line (57% FT at Auburn) and has yet to incorporate a three-point shot into his repertoire.

There is hope, however, as his defensive ability will make up for his shortcomings offensively. Remember, Nerlens Noel finished 71 in per game value and 51 in overall value back in 2020-2021 on the backs of 5.1 points, 6.4 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 2.2 blocks, and 0 threes on 61% FG and 71% from the line. Do we really believe Kessler can't put up similar numbers? Of course not. All in all, it's rare to find a player of Kessler's fantasy upside available this late in drafts. Make sure to take advantage on draft day.

Tre Jones (PG - SAS) - Yahoo Ranking: 125, Alex Ranking: 89

Much like the aforementioned Utah Jazz, the San Antonio Spurs have a similar goal this season: to finish with the worst record imaginable in order to draft prodigy Victor Wembanyama number one overall next summer. This means there will be plenty of opportunities for fantasy production up for grabs. We already know that Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell are good bets to take steps forward this season, but what about Tre Jones?

Jones was limited to 16.6 minutes per game last season mainly due to the emergence of Dejounte Murray as a ball-dominant usage hog at point guard. When Murray was out of the lineup, however, he gave us a glimpse into his fantasy upside. In 14 games without Murray, Jones averaged 12.3 points, 7.1 assists, 4.1 rebounds, and 0.9 steals on 51.5% FG in just under 30 minutes a night.

Pretty solid, right? It gets better. After Derrick White was sent to Boston at the trade deadline, it opened up even more room for Jones to produce. In eight games without Murray or White, Jones' numbers increased to 14.1 points, 9.1 assists, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.1 steals on 50% FG in over 33 minutes per game.

Outside of a crazy move, Jones remains the only true point guard on the Spurs roster heading into the season, and as the projected starter, he should easily see over 30 minutes a night. With a current ADP of 122 via Hashtagbasketball.com, Jones looks like the biggest steal in fantasy at the moment.

Stay Away - Players I'm Lower On

I am lower than the Yahoo! consensus on the following players

John Wall (PG - LAC) - Yahoo Ranking: 126, Alex Ranking: 145

I get it. John Wall was one of the most electric point guards of the last decade. He was a perennial early pick during his time with the Washington Wizards and we are all rooting for him in some way, shape, or form. I am, however, staying far away from him in fantasy hoops this season. Aside from the fact that he hasn't played in an NBA game in nearly two-and-a-half years, Wall wasn't particularly good from a fantasy perspective during his last healthy stint with the Houston Rockets either.

In 40 games with the Rockets back in the 2020-2021 season, Wall put up 20.6 points, 6.9 assists, 3.2 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and 3.5 turnovers. While that doesn't seem terrible on paper, his shooting splits tell a different story. He shot a career-low 40% from the field, 31% from three, and 75% from the charity stripe. That, combined with his high turnovers, led him to finish 169 in per-game value according to BasketballMonster.com. Believe it or not, those 40 games in Houston allowed Wall to see the highest usage percentage of his entire career (31.9%) as he only shared the court with James Harden for seven games before the latter was sent to Brooklyn.

Now with the Clippers, Wall finds himself at best the 3rd option on offense. He is projected to start, but unlike his time in Houston, there are quality options behind him in Reggie Jackson and Terance Mann. With that being the case, would it really be surprising to see the Clippers ease him into game action after the long layoff and multiple knee injuries? After all, a healthy Clippers team is built to contend for championships. That, along with his high turnovers, ugly shooting splits, and injury history serves as too many risks for me to feel comfortable rostering him at his current cost.

Julius Randle (PF - NYK) - Yahoo Ranking: 67, Alex Ranking: 91

Did you know that Julius Randle wasn't a top 100 fantasy basketball player last season? After finishing inside the top 20 during the 2021 season, he regressed mightily and finished 101 in total value and 127 in per-game value. So how in the world does a player put up similar numbers but finish as a much worse fantasy asset? One word: efficiency.

Last season, Randle saw his FG% drop just under 5% despite taking more than one less shot attempt per game. His 41% from the field is easily the worst shooting season of his career, excluding his rookie season, where played for a total of 14 minutes. It was more of the same with his three-point stroke as well. Even though he hoisted up one less three-point attempt per game, his percentage dropped by more than 11%.

Lastly, his assists dropped from 6.0 in 2021 down to 5.1 in 2022. While that may not seem like a massive difference on paper, an extra 0.9 assists per game would turn out to be 65 more attributed to Randle's season total. Without a doubt that would have moved him up a few spots in the total value rankings.

All that to say, '2021 Julius Randle' is looking more and more like a one-hit-wonder type of season rather than something we should expect going forward. With the addition of Jalen Brunson and the emergence of Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Quentin Grimes, and Obi Toppin, Randle will have a tough time finding the elite usage (29.1%) he saw two seasons ago.

As a result, we should expect his numbers to decline. It's important to note, however, that a decline in usage should typically lead to increased efficiency. While I don't believe Randle will finish 127 in value this season, ranking him inside the top 70 is a bold strategy. With a current ADP of 56.5, let someone else bite the bullet.

Buddy Hield (SG - IND) - Yahoo Ranking: 88, Alex Ranking: 103

It was a tale of two teams for Buddy Hield last season. After shooting just 38% from the field in 55 games with the Kings, he was traded to the Pacers at the trade deadline, where he drastically improved his numbers across the board. Check out his numbers across 26 games with his new team: 18.2 points, 5.1 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.0 steals, and 3.1 threes in just under 36 minutes per game.

On one hand, it makes sense to project similar numbers for him this season. On the other, it's clear that Indiana will have a lot more competition for minutes in the backcourt this season. Aside from the fact that Chris Duarte and Hield shared the court only seven times last season, the Pacers added shooting guard Bennedict Mathurin in the first round and picked up the team option for third-year wing Oshae Brissett.

Not to mention a healthy T.J. McConnell and newly acquired Aaron Nesmith remain on the roster. All that to say, Hield should start to begin the year and should flirt with 30 minutes a night. I'm just not so convinced we should expect similar production this season with all the mouths to feed.

His current Yahoo! ADP of 83 and 7th round value seems a bit too rich at the moment when guys like Ben Simmons, Franz Wagner, and Devin Vassell remain on the board.

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