RADIO
Eli analyzes disappointing players from last week to find potential Week 3 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
We now enter the second week of this series, where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.
In Week 2, we saw stat lines such as the Cowboys running backs combining for 180 rushing yards, the Cleveland Browns wide receivers getting just five targets, and the Philadelphia Eagles tight ends combining for 30 receiving yards. After these types of performances, it's important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.
This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in!
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Improvement Ahead?
These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Philadelphia Eagles Tight Ends
Nick Sirianni & Shane Steichen
| TE Rec. | TE Tgts | TE Rec. Yds | TE Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Philadelphia Eagles | 6.69 | 10.56 | 75.44 | 0.44 |
| Nick Sirianni Prior (48 games) | 5.73 | 8.88 | 64.10 | 0.73 |
| Shane Steichen Prior (24 games) | 4.88 | 7.67 | 54.25 | 0.5 |
| Eagles TEs vs. San Francisco 49ers | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
The Philadelphia Eagles tight ends had a solid Week 1 performance but were quiet in Week 2 against the San Francisco 49ers, combining for three receptions on four targets for 30 receiving yards. On the season, this group has totaled nine receptions (4.5 per game) on 11 targets (5.5 per game) for 106 receiving yards (53 per game) and a receiving touchdown (0.5 per game), which seems a little low from what we'd expect from the Philadelphia Eagles tight end group based on the data above. Given how much the Colts utilized their tight ends in Indianapolis when Nick Sirianni (Eagles head coach) was their offensive coordinator, it seems likely that this position group gets utilized more in the coming weeks and puts up better numbers.
Fantasy players this impacts: Dallas Goedert & Zach Ertz
Kansas City Chiefs Running Backs
Andy Reid & Eric Bieniemy
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Chiefs | 19.75 | 83.5 | 0.5 | 4.75 | 6.94 | 36.5 | 0.19 |
| Andy Reid Prior (352 games) | 19.97 | 87.43 | 0.64 | 4.94 | 6.74 | 42.64 | 0.28 |
| Eric Bieniemy Prior (48 games) | 19.17 | 83.08 | 0.71 | 4.94 | 6.38 | 42.42 | 0.38 |
| Chiefs RBs vs Baltimore Ravens | 16 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
For the second week in a row, the Kansas City Chiefs running backs land on this list after a Week 2 performance against the Baltimore Ravens where they combined for 16 carries, 44 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, one reception, one target, and 14 receiving yards. On the season, this group has totaled 31 carries (15.5 per game), 91 rushing yards (45.5 per game), one rushing touchdown (0.5 per game), four receptions (two per game), four targets (two per game), and 43 receiving yards (21.5 per game).
Andy Reid has always generally given his running backs less work than the average play-caller, but in these past two weeks, he's given his backs even fewer carries than his career averages. While there are legitimate questions as to whether Clyde Edwards-Helaire will live up to his ADP from the start of the season, at the very least it is likely we see more usage for him and the rest of the Chiefs running backs going forward and there's some sort of bounce-back.
Fantasy players this impacts: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jerick McKinnon, Darrel Williams
Cleveland Browns Wide Receivers
Kevin Stefanski & Alex Van Pelt
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Browns | 10.19 | 15.38 | 144.63 | 0.75 |
| Kevin Stefanski Prior (35 games) | 9.34 | 14.34 | 135.71 | 0.91 |
| Alex Van Pelt Prior (32 games) | 9.22 | 15.81 | 128.09 | 0.78 |
| Browns WRs vs. Texans | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
Kevin Stefanski and Alex Van Pelt haven't really utilized their wide receiver corps as much as other coaches in their careers, but this past Sunday against the Houston Texans took it to a new low with the group combining for four catches on five targets for 50 receiving yards. On the season, this group has totaled just 13 receptions (6.5 per game) on 16 targets (eight per game) for 194 receiving yards (97 per game). While we shouldn't expect monster WR numbers based on these coaches' previous history, there will undoubtedly be some level of improvement from what we've seen early on this season.
Fantasy players this impacts: Jarvis Landry, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Rashard Higgins, Anthony Schwartz, Odell Beckham Jr.
New Orleans Saints Running Backs
Sean Payton & Pete Carmichael Jr.
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Saints | 22.69 | 107.31 | 1.25 | 6.81 | 8.69 | 59.94 | 0.38 |
| Sean Payton Prior (272 games) | 23.54 | 103.86 | 0.88 | 7.20 | 9.19 | 56.17 | 0.25 |
| Pete Carmichael Prior (192 games) | 22.81 | 104.02 | 0.85 | 7.59 | 9.56 | 59.56 | 0.31 |
| Saints RBs vs. Panthers | 11 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
The New Orleans Saints just couldn't get anything going against the Carolina Panthers this past weekend, as the offense as a whole struggled. One group in particular that struggled was the Saints running backs as they combined for 11 carries, 12 rushing yards, four receptions, six targets, and 25 receiving yards. On the season, the Saints running backs have totaled 42 carries (21 per game), 145 rushing yards (72.5 per game), eight receptions (four per game), 11 targets (5.5 per game), 36 receiving yards (18 per game), and one receiving touchdown (0.5 per game).
Given the fact that Sean Payton and Pete Carmichael Jr. are two of the best coaches in the league at utilizing and getting production out of their running backs, it seems easy to chalk this up as an anomaly and expect better weeks in the future.
Fantasy players this impacts: Alvin Kamara & Tony Jones Jr.
Decline Ahead?
These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Tennessee Titans Running Backs
Todd Downing
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec | RB Tgt | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Titans | 28.94 | 149.31 | 1.13 | 2.13 | 3.31 | 12.56 | 0.13 |
| Todd Downing Prior (16 games) | 20 | 82.44 | 0.63 | 5.06 | 7 | 37.75 | 0.13 |
| Titans RBs vs. Seahawks | 36 | 185 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 81 | 0 |
This past Sunday was a monster day for Titans running backs as we saw Derrick Henry and his backup Jeremy McNichols combine for 36 carries, 185 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, nine receptions (on nine targets), and 81 receiving yards. After this game, the Titans backfield has now totaled 56 carries (28 per game), 254 rushing yards (127 per game), three rushing touchdowns (1.5 per game), 15 receptions (7.5 per game), 17 targets (8.5 per game), and 124 receiving yards (62 per game) on the season. While Henry is capable of a monster game any given week, there is a decent chance we see his usage take a dip in the future with Todd Downing calling the plays. Henry's still going to be an RB1 with his talent and the improved passing usage he's gotten thus far, but just don't go expecting this kind of performance each week.
Fantasy players this impacts: Derrick Henry, Jeremy McNichols, Darrynton Evans
Dallas Cowboys Running Backs
Mike McCarthy & Kellen Moore
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Cowboys | 22 | 89.88 | 0.63 | 5 | 6.94 | 33.13 | 0.19 |
| 21.29 | 89.53 | 0.57 | 4.03 | 5.44 | 31.42 | 0.10 | |
| 23.09 | 101.56 | 0.75 | 4.66 | 6.31 | 33.03 | 0.19 | |
| Cowboys RBs vs. Chargers | 29 | 180 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
Last week, the Dallas Cowboys running backs were on this list as a group that was expected to improve from Week 1. This week, the Cowboys running backs land on the other side as a positional group that is expected to decline from Week 2 after they carried the ball 29 times for 180 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns on the ground and caught five passes on five targets for 57 receiving yards. On the season, the Cowboys running backs have tallied 43 carries (21.5 per game), 227 rushing yards (113.5 per game), two rushing touchdowns (one per game), 11 receptions (5.5 per game), 11 targets (5.5 per game), 92 receiving yards (46 per game), and zero receiving touchdowns. Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has generally gotten solid production out of his backs over the course of his career with the team, but not quite to this level. Add in the fact that Mike McCarthy's teams generally don't feature the running back position as much as other teams, and we have reason to believe that this group will see their averages dip a bit in future weeks.
Fantasy players this impacts: Ezekiel Elliott & Tony Pollard
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