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Michael Florio gives his optimal strategy to setting Week 1 fantasy baseball lineups by emphasizing relief pitchers and helps you navigate the playing time conundrum with hitters!
Fantasy baseball is back in its rightful form! I know for some of you fantasy baseball never actually ends, but we actually have games upcoming and lineups to set. Not only that, but for the first time in two years we will be able to set our lineups in April, the way fantasy baseball is supposed to be played! No worries about shutdowns, no 60-game season, nothing with any of that, and for that we should all rejoice.
One thing I have definitely noticed though in my time as a fantasy baseball player is that people tend not to mess with their lineup to open the season. The players they drafted to be their starters are well, going to be in their starting lineup. And I get the thinking, why would you sit a player you drafted to be a starter in the opening week of the season? But the truth is, it should never be that simple when putting together your first week's starting lineup.
Now, some leagues handle the opening week of the season differently. Some will be setting a lineup for half of a week (Thursday-Sunday), but some leagues will play out a 10-day Week 1, combining the opening half week with the first full week of the season. Setting lineups there is extremely important. We will cover all that and more in getting your Week 1 lineups ready!
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How to Handle Pitchers in Week 1
To me, pitchers are impacted even more than hitters in the opening week of the season. Every year one thing I realize is fantasy managers really like forcing starting pitchers into their lineups early on. You will routinely see a fantasy manager start at least six, sometimes even seven starting pitchers in their nine pitcher spots. That might be a mistake this season given how much uncertainty we are seeing with bullpens around the league. There are a number of bullpens where we know multiple arms will be in the mix for saves early on, such as: Diamondbacks, Reds, Phillies, Giants, Rays, Orioles, and Rangers. A player such as Amir Garrett, who has been absolutely dominant, could be given the first crack as saves and run away with the job. Then there are some teams where we feel strongly about a candidate, like Emilio Pagan with the Padres or Gregory Soto with the Tigers, but even there we cannot be positive. Week 1 is a great week to not only add some speculative save candidates but also to start them.
In leagues where the opening Week is Thursday through Sunday, which most Roto leagues are, you may be in a position where you have to try and force starters into your lineup. If any of the studs and starters you drafted in the middle rounds are pitching, then sure, start them. But there are a lot of fantasy baseball managers that are going to have to go to their bench or even the waiver wire to find a sixth or seventh starter in the opening week. There are plenty of options, but none that I would be completely comfortable starting. For instance, some names that are slated to pitch in the opening weekend are Kyle Gibson, Rich Hill, Johnny Cueto, Chris Bassitt, Julio Teheran, Logan Webb, Chad Kuhl, Brad Keller, Matthew Boyd, Matt Harvey, the entire Rockies rotation against the Dodgers, and more. I do not want any of those starters in my lineup the opening week. I would rather stash the ones with upside on the bench and just keep an eye on the others as they could become streaming options down the road.
Early on in the season we typically see starting pitchers not pushed as deep into games. So, you could be looking at four or five innings out of these arms, and none are going to blow you away with the strikeouts otherwise they would have been drafted much earlier. You are hoping for a win, a handful of strikeouts and mostly, not destroying your ratios if you opt to start one of these starting pitchers. In leagues that combine the first week and a half into one super week, I get the appeal of starting one of these starters a bit more, as they could provide two starts. But, early on in the year given the rest days and the increased chance of rainouts, we can often see a back of the rotation arm skipped. That is something to keep in mind when setting your lineups this week.
So, what should the alternative be to these starting pitchers? Start relievers over them. Specifically, find the pitchers that are in unsettled bullpens (listed above) and add some closers that could see ninth-inning duty. Not only could a reliever make two outings and put up the same number of strikeouts as a starter does in four or five innings, but there is less chance of blowing up the ratios. Plus, the biggest reason to do so, is saves are very important. You may stumble upon an extra save or two that you otherwise wouldn’t have if you went with the starter. But the bigger reason is, what if you end up picking up the right player who pitches well and wins the closer job? You could be cutting a fringe starter for a potential closer before the season.
Why is that so important? Because closers always go for a lot of FAAB on the waiver wire. Additionally, if you pick up a closer in June, you may get three months’ worth of saves. If you add one in April? You may get six months’ worth of saves! There is just so much more upside with trying to get these potential closers in your lineups this week rather than fringy starters who could get lit up and really put your ratios behind the eight ball. Trust me, there is nothing worse than looking at a really high ERA and WHIP after just one week.
And just so you all know, I take my own advice! In The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitation, a 15-team Roto league with nine pitcher starts, I am only starting three starters (Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove). I am sitting starters such as Jordan Montgomery, Nathan Eovaldi and Mitch Keller. I dropped Rich Hill and Chris Archer to add speculative closers. In my starting lineup this week are SIX relievers: Brad Hand, Adam Ottavino, Ian Kennedy, Greg Holland, Stefan Crichton and Mark Melancon. All six could be in the mix for saves on their respective team. If any wins the closer job going forward, I will be a leg up on a very important saves category, without having to spend a bunch of FAAB to do so! I am taking a similar approach in all my leagues this week.
How to Handle Hitters in Week 1
When it comes to hitters in the opening week, you should take the opposite approach as with pitching. When it came to pitchers, I advised not forcing players into your starting lineup simply because they are starting. But when it comes to hitters, the best ability, especially early on, is availability.
A hitter cannot score or drive in runs, cannot provide really anything, unless they are in the starting lineup. If I have any players that come with playing time concerns, such as Amed Rosario, Yandy Diaz, Travis Shaw, Luis Urias, Garrett Hampson, Niko Goodrum, are all players that you can get away from. Try to replace any player that you have doubts about playing time early on. You do not want to fall behind early on due to starting players that you think have upside, only to see them sit every other night. This is obviously much more vital in weekly formats than daily.
Additionally, do not be afraid to trust new developments from spring. Ty France was awesome in spring, hitting .327 with five homers and will now be manning second base for the Mariners. Jonathan India hit .313 with three homers and two steals and now has the Reds rearranging their entire infield to get him in. Bobby Dalbec belted seven homers this spring and now gets to start off against the Orioles. Jay Bruce is expected to man first base for the Yankees and will get to slide into their stacked lineup and potentially take advantage of the short porch there. All of these are players you likely wouldn’t have considered starting a couple weeks ago, but you should now be plugging them in as they are playing well and have earned more at-bats early on.
Lastly, when it comes to hitters and setting your lineups, target bad pitchers. This is not exclusive to Week 1, but the jury is out on more pitchers early on. There are some staffs, such as the Orioles, that we know you can stream again. Look to stream some Red Sox against them this week. Other streaming options in Week 1: Orioles hitters vs Red Sox, Dodgers bats vs Rockies in Coors Field, Cubs bats against the Pirates (Joc Pederson!), Padres bats vs Diamondbacks arms and the Royals against the Rangers pitchers.
Some teams that have rough matchups to open the season are: Mets bats vs Nationals, Nationals hitters vs Mets arms, Diamondback hitters against the Padres deep staff, Rays bats against an up-and-coming Marlins rotation, Phillies hitters against the Braves and the Rockies hitters against a stacked Dodgers rotation (but it is in Coors, so fade at your own risk).
Baseball is back and it’s going to be great. But it is always better when your team gets off to a hot start and hopefully this helps you do so!
Make sure to follow me on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio
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