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Adrian Solis explains why Atlanta Falcons tight end Hayden Hurst is an overhyped sleeper and fantasy football draft bust based on preseason ADP in 2020 redraft leagues.
Hayden Hurst, the 25th overall pick of the 2018 draft, has yet to live up to his draft status. You can blame the foot fracture he suffered in his rookie season for this, or that the tight end position usually involves a longer learning curve, but whatever your viewpoint is of Hurst, ehe fact of the matter is that he was drafted by the Baltimore Ravens to be “the guy” at tight end and it never happened.
The guy who ultimately ended up being that player for Baltimore is Mark Andrews (who happened to be taken 61 picks later in the same draft). Now going into year three, Hurst has a clearer path to production being at the top of the depth chart in his new home with the Atlanta Falcons.
Hypothetically, he should produce and live up to expectations, but will he?
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A New Nest to Call Home
Austin Hooper enjoyed a career year in 2019 catching passes from Matt Ryan. He parlayed that successful year into a multi-year contract with the Cleveland Browns. The Falcons could have matched the offer sheet from the Browns, but they elected not to, thus ending Hooper’s tenure in Atlanta. If they valued Hooper enough, they would have matched the offer. But, the sense from their response is that they feel that the offensive scheme is favorable enough that another capable player at a lesser price could be successful in that spot. Enter Hayden Hurst.
Atlanta led the league last year in total pass attempts. In 2018, Atlanta was in the top-five in that department. In targeting the tight end position, Matt Ryan completed 77.14% of his passes – to Austin Hooper specifically, he completed 77.78% of his passes. And no, Hooper was not a part-time, rotational player. He was by far the tight end that saw the most action for the team. In total, he saw 90 targets come his way, third to only Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. In the red zone, Hooper saw 15 targets in his direction, and he turned those into nine catches, with seven being touchdowns.
Given these stats, his athletic profile, and the fact that he sits unchallenged at the top of the tight end depth chart, Hurts should excel with his new team. All that said, let’s pump the brakes just a bit.
Given the unprecedented nature of the off-season, the fact that the preseason is no longer a thing this year, and general uncertainty of the regular season, we should be a little skeptical. Hurst is behind in terms of conditioning, getting acclimated with his new teammates, and most importantly, learning and practicing the intricacies of a new playbook. We also simply cannot ignore the fact that due to the small sample size of body of work we have, he is unproven at this point.
In the two years Hurst has been in the league, he has not seen the field a whole lot. In his 2018 rookie season, he appeared in 12 games with zero starts (in on 23% of available snaps), and last year he played in all 16 games, with four starts (in on 41% of available snaps). Based on the limited action he did see, Pro Football Focus awarded him an overall offensive grade of 73.1 for his efforts – good for 12th in the league. While this grade is certainly not awful, it also doesn’t exactly scream exciting potential ready to be unleashed.
For a tight end to be an every-down-player, the skill set should be that of one who is a strong receiver and blocker. While, again, his receiving grade of 77.3 is pretty solid, it does not come near to the elite tight ends in the league (think George Kittle and Travis Kelce). An area that Hurst will really have to improve in order to stay on the field longer is his run blocking. In this area, he graded out quite poorly. Out of 70 qualified tight ends, Hurst graded as the 53rd best with a score of 51.3 – yikes.
Solid Not Spectacular
The problem I have with Hurst going into this season is that he is being seen as this potential breakout candidate, on exactly that, potential, and thus being ranked fairly high (tight end rankings) on draft boards – in some cases higher than Hunter Henry, Tyler Higbee, Noah Fant, and Austin Hooper. I’m not saying he won’t have a good year, or that you shouldn’t draft Hayden Hurst at all, what I am saying is to not reach for the guy simply because of a theoretically good spot he is in. At times he has shown flashes of being a productive tight end in the league, but not consistently enough – albeit based on a small sample size.
If you like your assembled roster at a specific point, and you find yourself in a position to draft Hurst in a reasonable range (rounds 8-10), then by all means go for it. But, don’t go reaching for the guy too much when there are other young, capable players you can find in the later rounds.
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