RADIO
Thanks to the Cubbies being on the road on this beautiful Friday, we get a 15 game Main slate as all teams will be playing under the lights. The slate has a heavy east coast feel to it, with only three games starting after 9 p.m. It also features some serious aces and good second tier pitchers, so we certainly wont be without arm options. The flip side of that is that we may have to dig a little harder to find sleeper and opportune lineup stacks.
Let's take a glance at some Vegas lines before diving into pitchers and position players. As of Friday morning, we have five teams with lofty run projections, starting with the Red Sox at 6.3, the Yankees (6.2), Rockies (5.8), Astros (5.7), and the Athletics (5.6). The biggest moneyline favorites happent to be huge favorites, again with Boston on top (-360), followed by the Yankees (-285), Nationals (-261), Astros (-260) and the Indians at -180.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 7/27/18. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to contact me up on Twitter @kpLuch.
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FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Max Scherzer - SP, at MIA ($11,500)
Deciding who your top arm of the night is on a Friday that features Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Carlos Carrasco and Madison Bumgarner is anything but easy or simple. Truth be told, not everyone I just mentioned is quite as elite as they once were, but the decision is difficult and ultimately came down to Scherzer and Sale for me. Honestly, they both project out very well tonight and I don't think there is a wrong answer here. Sale has been pitching more dominantly than Scherzer of late, but ultimately, the cost savings, weaker opponent and better pitching environment gives the slight edge to Scherzer for me. Team splits can be really helpful, but I like to look at the projected lineup's K rate and wOBA as that's a bit more predictive of how the night may go. Scherzer's opponent, the Marlins, have a 27.7% K rate and a .291 wOBA split against right-handed pitching this season - both desireable numbers when you're backing the opposing starting pitcher. Sale's opponent is certainly one he can dominante as he's got the skill set to do that to anyone, but in addition to pitching in a pretty hitter-friendly park, the Twins projected lineup has a much lower K rate (20%) and a higher team wOBA split at .329. Scherzer has limited his opponents in his past two starts to a 33% hard hit rate and an average exit velocity of just 89 miles per hour. With the K upside present, he can be used in all formats.
Marcus Stroman - SP, at CWS ($8,000)
I've alluded to it above a few times, but let me say it again once more for good measure - there are a ton of quality arms on this slate. Unfortunately, they are priced as such - for the most part. There are guys in that second tier - like Carrasco and Chris Archer -that I'm a fan of for both their recent play and on the matchup on the table tonight, but there's one big problem: there's not enough of a cost savings to justify using them over the likes of Scherzer or Sale. Moving down another pricing tier, I'm eyeing guys like Michael Foltynewicz, Nick Pivetta and Marcus Stroman. Factoring in matchup and strikeout upside, Stroman has the edge over Folty and Pivetta as their K projections are about the same, but Stroman faces the weakest offense of the bunch. Additionally, he's pitched very well in three of his last four starts and has been pitching deeper into games - raising his floor and ceiling a good amount. The White Sox' projected lineup has a 25.7% K rate against right-handers this season and their implied run total tonight is sitting at 4.3. Stroman is a fine GPP option that whose salary savings will allow you to get an extra big bat or two into your lineups.
FanDuel DFS Infielders
Jorge Alfaro - C, at CIN ($2,800)
Alfaro is a nice, low-cost tournament option tonight with power upside. Cincinnati is a great environment for producing home runs, one that the Phillies have take advantage of already with seven dingers last night. Alfaro isn't an every day guy, but he has been swinging the bat well lately and crushing his price implied value in the process. He also has reverse splits and performs better against right-handed pitching, having posted a .353 wOBA and .183 ISO to date in 2018. In the past 10 days, he owns a 57% hard hit rate.
Ian Desmond - 1B, vs OAK ($3,700)
Considering the crazy high implied run total in this game and it taking place in the best hitters environment in the MLB, Desmond is price low. He's a great way to get exposure here, especially if you can't afford some of their other bats. Desmond is particualrly strong against southpaws, too. He enters this game with a hard hit rate over 50% in his last 10 starts and owns a .374 wOBA and .260 ISO split this season.
Josh Harrison - 2B, vs NYM ($2,800)
The second basemen in the Coors games are in good spots, but they're going to cost you quite a bit and there's an opportunity cost in there as well. Harrison happens to be a great value out of the leadoff spot with a sub 3K price tag facing a very weak pitcher and one of the worst bullpens. This season, Jason Vargas has allowed a whopping .427 wOBA and a .624 slugging percentage to right-handed batters, while Harrison owns a .333 wOBA and a .206 ISO against southpaws in 2018.
Nolan Arenado - 3B, vs OAK ($4,500)
The opportunity cost I mentioned above is in reference to guys like Arenado. Trying to squeeze as many Coors bats in your lineup likely would make it impossible to fit in guys like Arenado with a respectable pitcher. He and Desmond are my favorite Colorado plays, parcitularly because they are so adept at hitting lefties. Arenado has put up monster splits this season, highlighted by a .554 wOBA and a .435 ISO. Those are insane numbers!
Didi Gregorius - SS, vs KCR ($3,500)
Gregorious flashed his power last night and the matchup would indicate he's in a great spot to do it all again on Friday night. He's a pretty fair price, too, considering the lineup context, hitting environment and the fact he owns splits like these against right-handed pitchers this season - .341 wOBA and a .236 ISO.
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Let me preface this section by saying there is a huge number of outfielders in good-to-great spots tonight, and like with pitching, most are priced that way. If you can afford guys like Khris Davis, Mookie Betts and Mike Trout tonight - do it. But below I'm going to list out a few of my favorite outfielders in the price tier below who have solid floors and pretty strong upside, too.
Kevin Kiermaier - OF, at BAL ($3,100)
Kiermaier has picked up the production over the past few days and draws another good matchup tonight along with an offensive park upgrade. Hitting out of the leadoff spot provides great value as he'll have a shot at 5+ at-bats tonight, weather permitting of course. Kiermaier has a solid .310 wOBA split against lefties and the power numbers have been rising, with his ISO split now at .183.
Mark Canha - OF, at COL ($3,200)
A literal lefty killer at Coors Field for this price? Sign me up. Canha owns huge split differentials and thus far in 2018 he's posted a .380 wOBA and a .288 ISO against lefties - that's a rare find in this price tier, especially for a player on the road in Denver.
