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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on April 6, 2018. Adam Meyer's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Last week, we observed the season’s Opening Day. On Friday, we get more ballparks celebrating their home-openers.
In the DFS community, we’re extremely happy to finally see games being played in Colorado. The over/unders are always high and the teams rarely disappoint. When considering park factors, no matter the site, a score of 100 is typically assigned to the 15th ballpark (average score). Colorado is always at the top of the list (115 on Fangraphs).
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 4/6/18. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. Feel free to post questions or comments to me on Twitter @CharlieSideHstl as MLB lineups are released.
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DraftKings Starting Pitchers
Lance McCullers Jr., HOU (vs. SD) - $12,300
The strongest favorite of the slate, according to Vegas, goes to McCullers and the Astros (-260). Last season, at Minute Maid Park, McCullers was 4-0 with a 3.04 ERA in nine starts and punched out 63 batters in 50.1 innings. In his first start of the season, McCullers struck out 10 batters in 5.1 innings of work against the Rangers on the road (two earned runs).
Kenta Maeda, LAD (@ SF) - $11,200
Later, when you see the list of starting pitchers after Maeda, you may want to double-down on high-priced arms on Friday. Maeda isn’t a terrible investment. In his first outing of 2018, Maeda struck out 10 batters and refused to allow an earned run in five innings of work against San Francisco. He gets those same Giants on Friday.
CC Sabathia, NYY (vs. BAL) - $7,900
After Maeda, the other pitching options, who are also listed as favorites, don’t look promising. Trevor Williams was pulled during a no-hitter on Sunday after 85 pitches. Parker Bridwell allowed 13 earned runs in six innings against the Athletics last season. Kyle Hendricks is too expensive as a SP2. Marco Estrada’s game has an over/under of 10. That leaves Sabathia. While the BAL/NYY game is pegged with a 9.5 total, the Yankees are substantial favorites (-170). This season, the Orioles are 27th in runs scored (14 runs in six games) and have produced the fourth-most strikeouts (62 K). For those reasons, Sabathia gets the nod as an inexpensive SP2 on DK.
DraftKings Infielders
C - Juan Centeno, TEX (vs. TOR) - $2,500
If you decide to spend most of your faux salary cap on starting pitchers, you need to find “punt” options. Basically, those are players who are very inexpensive, but could still accrue stats for you lineup. When looking for a great punt play, I tend to scour the games with high over/unders. More projected runs could mean more points for players in those lineups. The Blue Jays/Rangers game has an over/under of ten total runs. Robinson Chirinos started the season as the everyday catcher for Texas. However, on Wednesday, Chirinos injured his wrist. Jeff Banister gave Chirinos the day off on Thursday and backup, Centeno, went 2-for-4. If Chirinos gets another day off, plug Centeno in for a cheap catcher option. If Centeno isn’t starting, another backup backstop could be Rene Rivera for the Angels.
1B - Marwin Gonzalez, HOU (vs. SD) - $3,900
Okay, I admit it, I’m done trying to squeeze McCullers and Maeda into one lineup at this point and I’ve moved on to the McCullers/Sabathia option. With only a seven-game slate, we must continue to focus on the games with high projected totals and games with strong favorites. We’ve already established the fact that Vegas loves Houston the most on Friday. Gonzalez’s price tag is the lowest I’d go for a first baseman in this docket of games. He produced a .230 ISO against right-handed pitchers last season and Gonzalez has gathered three extra-base hits in the past five games.
2B - Rougned Odor, TEX (vs. TOR) - $3,100
Now, we’re back to saving some money. Odor concluded the 2017 season with a .223 ISO against righties. Also, last season, Odor’s best split totals came against right-handed pitchers while playing at Globe Life Park (.267 AVG, .267 ISO, and a .351 wOBA). Odor is yet another way to add a cheap bat in a game that should produce a high run total.
3B - Travis Shaw, MIL (vs. CHC) - $3,900
When noting the batter vs. pitcher stats, it’s important to take them with a grain of salt. It’s also important not to completely ignore the numbers. When I take BvP into consideration, for the batter-side, I monitor the amount of extra-base hits, as opposed to just the batting average. Shaw has only faced Kyle Hendricks in 12 at-bats. However, in that small sample size, Shaw has compiled four hits. Three of those hits were for extra-bases, with two of those leaving the yard. You’ll need to spend some cash at the third base position in order to compete on Friday and Shaw is just affordable enough to provide the fantasy points one would expect from the hot corner leaderboard at the end of the contest.
SS - Manny Machado, BAL (@ NYY) - $4,200
I don’t want to dedicate an entire article to players with strong BvP numbers, but Machado also falls into that category. In his career, Machado is 18-for-51 (.353) against Sabathia. That sample size validates the noteworthiness. Of those 18 hits, half went for extra-bases and three were home runs. This next sentence may deter you from choosing Sabathia: In three starts against the Orioles last season, Sabathia allowed 14 earned runs in 17 innings (7.41 ERA).
DraftKings Outfielders
Joey Gallo, TEX (vs. TOR) - $4,500
I’ll always lean towards home run hitters when constructing my DFS lineups. No matter the slump, Gallo will always be on my radar. He’s 0-for-9 in the past two games, but Gallo is the guy who compiled a .350 ISO against righties last year and finished fifth with 41 homers. In the past three season, Globe Life Park has produced second-best park factor to hitters.
Josh Reddick, HOU (vs. SD) - $4,000
Opposing pitchers worry about George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa when facing the Astros. Rightfully so. However, they shouldn’t forget about Reddick lurking in the five-spot. Reddick posted a .190 ISO against righties in 2017. He’s currently riding a three-game hitting streak, including back-to-back performances with at least two hits. In the extremely small BvP sample size department, Reddick is 4-for-5, with a home run, against Luis Perdomo.
Kike Hernandez, LAD (@ SF) - $3,500
Finally, we get to the lefty-killer of the slate. Hernandez leads all hitters on the docket with a .309 ISO against southpaws in 2017. He also struck out the fewest on the road, against lefties (17.3 strikeout percentage). The price tag is too perfect to pass up and Derek Holland struggled against right-handed hitters last year (.302 AVG).
