RADIO
Fantasy football draft season is upon us and RotoBaller is here to help! In this series, two RotoBaller experts will discuss the merits of two players with similar value and average draft position (ADP). Remember that situations will change for all players over the course of the summer and it may impact where they are selected in drafts.
Our debate is between potential rookie sensation running back Leonard Fournette and former rookie sensation running back Todd Gurley. Andy Patton will be making the case for Fournette and Steve Rebeiro will be making the case for Gurley.
If you can't get enough of these Player vs. Player debates, check out RotoBaller's NFL page for more. We've already thrown down on Jordy Nelson vs. Michael Thomas, Stefon Diggs vs. DeVante Parker, Jeremy Maclin vs. Randall Cobb and Evan Engram vs. David Njoku among others with more to come!
Featured Promo: Looking for some more fantasy football action? Adopt a dynasty orphan team over at FFPC. Sign up today and get $25 off any FFPC league. Sign Up Now!
The Case for Leonard Fournette - Andy
The massive production from rookie Ezekiel Elliott last year has put an emphasis on this year’s class of rookie running backs. While Joe Mixon and Christian McCaffrey will certainly carry a lot of fantasy value in their first year in the NFL, it is the Jaguars new running back, Leonard Fournette, who is most likely to have the biggest fantasy impact heading into 2017. While expecting Elliott-like production from Fournette is a pretty tall order, expecting him to out-produce Rams third year running back Todd Gurley is reasonable, considering Fournette’s expected usage and the frightening drop-off that Gurley had last season.
Fournette is expected to step right into the feature back role in Jacksonville. This comes as no surprise after Jacksonville suffered through pitiful performances from both Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon last year. The duo combined for only 904 yards and four touchdowns on the ground last season, figures that many predict Fournette can eclipse on his own. In fact, not only will Fournette likely be the primary ball carrier, but the Jaguars indicated they are planning to utilize a more run-focused attack in 2017, clearly indicating a confidence in Fournette’s abilities as an every down back.
Fournette’s weakness may be his pass-catching, which does hurt his value in PPR formats. He showed some promise at it during his time at LSU, but with T.J. Yeldon likely to serve as the Jaguars’ primary pass-catching back (he had 50 receptions for 312 yards and a touchdown last season) it seems like Fournette will do most of his damage on the ground and not through the air. However, the Jaguars do like to feature their backs as receivers, so Fournette could certainly get a chance to make some plays through the air. Yeldon’s spot on the roster is not secure and if he is released, Fournette’s opportunity to make an impact in the air will increase.
Todd Gurley is currently being drafted one spot behind Fournette on average, and there is a legitimate argument for either player. While Gurley is a popular pick to bounce back from his dreadful 2016 season, it is unwise to just assume he will return to his 2015 form without taking a good look at what factors caused his drop last year. Gurley’s usage was very high, he held down 77% of the carries in Los Angeles while also placing second on the team in red zone passing targets, behind Kenny Britt. His usage was up but his production was down, which certainly creates concern heading into 2017. A new offensive line coach will help fix the chaos up front for the Rams, but new head coach Sean McVay is known for his creativity in the passing game, which does not bode well for Gurley. It is safe to predict that Gurley will not be as bad as he was in 2016 next year, but expecting him to produce like he did in 2015 (1106 yards, 10 touchdowns on the ground and 188 yards in the air) is unreasonable as well. Assuming he falls somewhere in the middle, Gurley will be a good RB2 with RB1 upside in 2017. Still, I would rather take the gamble on a rookie like Fournette than a full bounce-back from Gurley, especially on the inconsistent Rams
Fournette’s ceiling for this season is sky-high. Rarely does a rookie running back come into the league with an opportunity to make an impact as much as Fournette will have in Jacksonville. Elliott had a similar opportunity, and although Jacksonville’s offensive line is not on the same level as the Cowboy’s, it is reasonable to anticipate that Fournette will be given over 300 carries, (Elliott had 322) and could very well turn in a 1200-yard season with upwards of double-digit touchdowns. These figures make him a mid-second round pick in any fantasy format, and put him over Todd Gurley and the risk associated with him in Los Angeles.
The Case for Todd Gurley - Steve
Todd Gurley was considered by many to be the top fantasy running back heading into the 2016 season. Heading into 2017, RotoBaller has Gurley ranked as the 10th-best RB, a fall from grace for a guy who was once considered the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson. Gurley deserves the fall in stock. He ran head first into the sophomore slump, averaging just 3.2 yards per rush, finding the end zone just six times and failing to even reach 900 yards on the ground.
I've watched almost every game Gurley has played over the past two years. He shares some of the blame for 2016. He was a bit less explosive than he was in his rookie season. I'll give him 12% of the blame. The Rams shoulder the rest. You could put Barry Sanders, Walter Payton, and Marshall Faulk in a lab and combine the best skills from each player to create the ultimate prototype NFL running back, and even he wouldn't be able to reach the 1,000 yard mark in the situation Gurley was in last year.
The Rams offense was a joke. Defenses stacked the box on Gurley and he was getting smacked the second he touched the ball. The line was awful and the passing game was worse. With new head coach Sean McVay and some new faces on the offensive line and at receiver, the Rams should improve on offense. If they can even get the passing game opened up a little, Todd Gurley will finally have some space to breathe.
The biggest factor in taking Gurley over Leonard Fournette is that Gurley has proven he's capable of carrying the ball at an elite level. Gurley had a four game stretch as a rookie where he averaged 6.43 yards per carry. In the 12 games he touched the ball eight or more times as a rookie, he ran for 1,097 yards and 10 touchdowns. He crossed the 125 yard mark five times. With Fournette, a year like Gurley had in 2015 is exactly what you're hoping for. It's not unrealistic for Gurley to return to that level. The offensive line is better than it was in 2015, the offensive system is much better than it was in 2015, and odds are the quarterback is even going to be better than what it was in 2015.
Gurley was not put in a position to succeed in 2016. But he's still one of the most talented backs in the NFL and is guaranteed to have plenty of opportunity in Sean McVay's new system. McVay made Matt Jones and Rob Kelley look like dangerous NFL backs. He's never been near a running back as talented as Todd Gurley. Shouldn't our expectations be sky high for what that duo can accomplish together?
In Leonard Fournette's final season at LSU, he ran for 843 yards and eight touchdowns in just seven games, averaging 6.5 yards per carry. He's earned the hype he's received. He's going to be a great running back in the NFL and has a ton of fantasy upside this season.
In Todd Gurley's final season at Georgia, he ran for more yards (911), more touchdowns (9), had a higher average (7.4), and played in just six games. We should not be writing this guy off after a bad season in an awful system. He remains one of, if not the best running back prospect in the league.
