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Chris Durell brings you DraftKings fantasy NASCAR advice, DFS lineups picks and sleepers analysis for Chris Durell brings you DraftKings fantasy NASCAR advice, DFS lineups picks and sleepers analysis for the Folds of Honor Quiktrip 500 from Atlanta Motor Speedway
Daytona 500 Race Recap
Welcome back NASCAR fans! With all the hype for the new series sponsor, race format, and points system, the Daytona 500 once again delivered an exciting race. Kyle Busch recorded the first ever NASCAR stage win but bowed out early in the second stage after blowing a tire. He also collected race favorite Dale Earnhardt Jr., Matt Kenseth and others. Kevin Harvick won the second stage but also fell victim to the "Big One" on Lap 128 which involved 17 cars. That wasn't the end of the carnage, however, as we saw another crash just nine laps later and then another on Lap 143. By the end of the race, there were only 11 cars in the lead with a chance to win the race. Amazing!
The crashes were definitely not the defining moments of the race as we got one heck of a finish despite some fuel mileage issues. Pole sitter Chase Elliott and young gun Kyle Larson both had the lead late in the race before running out of fuel. Kurt Busch managed to overtake Larson and hold off another young gun Ryan Blaney who made a last second charge. Overall, it was great to see the drivers who are the future of the sport run so well in the sports biggest race.
For Kurt Busch, the Daytona 500 win was another check on his Hall of Fame eligibility checklist. It sits right up there behind his series championship back in 2004. It was his 29th career win in NASCAR's highest series and the look on his face and his post-race interview said it all. He is a changed man and it showed throughout the entire race. The team overcame a penalty on pit road, damage from a crash that almost took the whole five-minute clock, and a broken mirror with laps to go but that wasn't the biggest story. It was the fact Kurt stayed calm through the entire race and not once snapped back at the team. The #41 Stewart-Haas team could be in for a big season. They now go to Atlanta where Kurt has won three times in the past. Speaking of next week let's dive right in.
Folds of Honor Quiktrip 500 Race Preview
After two weeks in Daytona, the NASCAR haulers have taken the 400-mile trip North to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Folds of Honor Quiktrip 500 this Sunday afternoon. This will be the final race at Atlanta on the current racing surface as a repave is scheduled in the coming weeks. AMS is the second oldest surface on the Monster Energy Cup Series circuit and is well know for producing loose race cars with multiple racing grooves. This year's race could be even more entertaining as it will be the first race with the newly implemented Downforce Package that will be used in 32 of 36 points paying races this season. The rule is designed to take away downforce(dropped from 3000 lbs to 1500 lbs of force) putting more emphasis on the driver as the cars should be much harder to control. This is exactly what the drivers want and it should most definitely produce and outstanding product on track for the fans. For a complete rundown of the package please visit the following LINK.
From a fantasy perspective, we are going switch gears from the "Place Differential" model we used at Daytona and focus more on a "Dominator" points strategy here at Atlanta. On the intermediate tracks, there is a much greater chance that two or three drivers dominant the laps led which on DraftKings is worth .25 points each. Looking at the stats over the last few years the first guys that stand out are Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. who are the only two drivers with over 1,000 laps led on intermediate tracks. There is also only four other drivers(Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano) with over 500 laps led. I will be building my lineups around three drivers who I feel have the best shot at these dominator points. Place differential points will still hold value and make a great way to fill in around your dominators. Stay tuned as my cheatsheet will be updated following each practice and qualifying. There is also a column showing Qualifying to Practice Average Differential which is a great way to gauge the best place differential drivers each week.
With all that, let's get into the picks!
Daily Fantasy NASCAR: DraftKings DFS Lineup Picks
Kevin Harvick ($10,200)
Stewart-Haas Racing #4
He ranks #1 on my initial model and it has everything with him being an elite intermediate track, especially from a DraftKings points perspective. Looking at the stats over the past two years, Harvick leads all drivers in laps led at Atlanta(247) and overall on Intermediate tracks(1,205). If he shows speed through qualifying and practice, he will once again be in prime position to lead the most laps and dominate the DraftKings points.
*Update - Harvick won the Coors Lite Pole and while he doesn't have any place differential upside, he has an excellent shot at destroying the dominator category. Lock him in all formats.*
Kyle Busch ($10,400)
Joe Gibbs Racing #18
With Jimmie Johnson winning each of the last two races here at AMS and Kevin Harvick third in salary, I think there is a chance Kyle could be the lowest owned of the three. He isn't just an ownership play either as he won here back in 2013 and has two Top 10's and a Top 5 over the past two races. On top of his excellent Atlanta track history, is an elite intermediate track ranking as he sits at the top when looking at average finish(7.7) with 502 laps led in 20 races. Kyle is also racing in both other series(Camping World Trucks & Xfinity) which gives him a small edge with track experience in different conditions.
*Update - Busch was fast in all three rounds of qualifying but couldn't quite match Newman and Harvick. He most definitely has a top five car and with the right strategies and adjustments during the race, could pick up another win at Atlanta.*
Matt Kenseth ($8,600)
Joe Gibbs Racing #20
Before seeing the qualifying and practice results, Matt Kenseth is my favorite value play this week. He comes with a very attractive mid $8K price tag and comes back to Atlanta with an excellent history. He got a bit unlucky last year after being penalized on pit road for the gas man also handling the wrench and after failing to let Matt know to come down pit road, they were black-flagged and finished 19th. Outside of that, he hasn't finished worse than 15th since back in the spring of 2005 and in that time has 11 Top 10's and eight Top 5 finishes. He is safe in all formats this week.
*Update - Matt made it into the second round of qualifying but failed to get a strong lap and will start 16th on Sunday. He hasn't won here in his career but has been very strong with a 12.3 career average finish. The place differential upside plus mid-range price makes him a great play this week.*
Aric Almirola ($6,700)
Richard Petty Motorsports #43
I waited for qualifying to finish up before writing the final pick as I wanted to find some value in place differential. Almirola provides that this week as he qualified 30th, failing to get out of the first round after putting up the 15th fastest speed in opening practice. He has been very consistent here at Atlanta in the past with finishes of 15th, 11th, 9th and 20th the last four years. It will be worth monitoring through final practice to see his speed but he should easily be able to grab some place differential points with outside shot at a Top 15/Top 10 finish.
Bonus Pick - Kasey Kahne ($8,000)
Showed top 10 speed in opening practice but had trouble qualifying and will start 29th. Provided he shows speed in final practice on Saturday, he will be a great play with his excellent career track history including three wins.
Don't have the time to search multiple sites looking for NASCAR stats and data? Check out my DFS NASCAR cheatsheet which includes Track History(2-Year Trend & Career), Track Type History(2-Year Trend), Current Form, Practice/Qualifying Data, and a weighted system to get an overall rank for each driver each race. Check out it now while it's still in BETA mode and FREE to everyone. Click image below to open the complete cheatsheet.
DFS & Fantasy NASCAR Chat Room
If you have any questions leading up to the race hit me up in the chat below!
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