8 Breakout Hitters For Fantasy Baseball Drafts: Mike Carter's Picks

March 21, 2026

Mike Carter's 2026 fantasy baseball hitter breakouts to target in drafts. His favorite undervalued hitters and fantasy baseball sleepers to break out.

Serious fantasy baseball players are always looking out for the next breakout player. What player is being undervalued and could outperform their projections? It could be any of several guys. As tantalizing as it is, we never know what is going to actually happen.

Where do we find these undervalued gems? We can look at Statcast data until we are blue (hopefully not Statcast blue) in the face. We attempt to find players that our peers in our leagues may be overlooking.

In this piece, I'll look at eight of my favorite candidates to become key breakout hitters for the 2026 fantasy baseball season. All fall after pick 100 and before pick 300. All ADP references are taken from NFBC drafts from the last 10 days.

Jakob Marsee, OF, Miami Marlins

ADP - 140

Marsee hit better than anyone thought he would in a decent sample size last summer. In a small sample size of 234 plate appearances, Marsee hit .292 with five home runs, 33 RBI, 28 runs, and 14 stolen bases. His calling card is speed.

Many pundits do not expect Marsee to hit for a high batting average again, but he has the speed to be a difference maker in fantasy for stolen bases and runs. Marsee is expected to hit at the top of the Miami order, in front of hopeful run producers like Kyle Stowers and Agustin Ramirez.

If he is successful at getting on base and having a green light to run, Marsee could easily score 80+ runs and steal 30-35 bases. In a world where everything lines up (like that ever happens), he could pair the speed with a helpful batting average as well.

Carter Jensen, C, Kansas City Royals

ADP: 170

Jensen has become a bit of a fantasy darling, but seems to still be flying under the radar a bit in the last 10 days of drafting. At an ADP of 188, he is being drafted as the 17th catcher off the board. Players like him as their second catcher, which is a prudent play.

Yet the talent is there for Jensen to be considered in mono-catcher leagues as well. Called up last summer, Jensen was impressive: he hit an even .300 with three home runs, seven RBI, and 12 runs in only 69 plate appearances.

Yes, it is a small sample size, but see below. Isn't it tantalizing at this cost?

Jensen has continued to show power this spring with three home runs while splitting time between catcher and designated hitter. Playing time projections show him only playing 100 games or so, but this recommendation requires more playing time, which he could easily get.

There is no reason Jensen could not hit 15-20 home runs, hit about .250, and chip in with five to seven bags; in the minors, he had a season with 20 home runs and another with 16 stolen bases.

Heliot Ramos, OF, San Francisco Giants

ADP: 211

I like where Ramos is going and could see him reaching another level this year. He should hit in the middle of the San Francisco Giants' lineup and garner well over 600 at-bats. Last year, Ramos hit .256 with 21 home runs, 69 RBI, 85 runs, and six stolen bases.

What I like when I dig in is that Ramos hits the ball hard; his average exit velocity is elite (see below). Digging a bit deeper, the K% has decreased annually, reaching a career low of 22.7% in 2025. He has elite bat speed as well, and he's entering his age-26 season.

Adding a little more launch angle to his swing this winter, Ramos could easily launch 30 home runs this season at a cheap draft cost. Consider Ramos to round out your outfield ranks.

Colson Montgomery, SS, Chicago White Sox

ADP:  234

Montgomery was promoted to the major leagues last summer, after what seemed like an eternity of waiting for the young shortstop to get here.

Montgomery does not profile as a shortstop who will help you with batting average and steals. But what he can do is hit for power. Check out Montgomery's barrel percentages in a 284 plate appearance sample. The 23-year-old slugged 21 home runs.

Montgomery could post a relatively low batting average, perhaps about .230, but he could easily slug 30 home runs, which could be among the league leaders for his position. If you miss on a top target early, Montgomery could be a nice prize later in drafts at the shortstop position.

Wilyer Abreu, OF, Boston Red Sox

ADP: 203

The Red Sox front office has openly suggested that Abreu is going to play against left-handed pitching, which makes the Gold Glove outfielder more intriguing. Abreu had only 61 at-bats against left-handed pitching in 2025.

It appears the Red Sox do not have anyone to platoon with Abreu at this time and will let him play regardless of the pitcher. Abreu has 30 home run upside, and at his current NFBC ADP of 221, he could end up being a bargain if he maintains an everyday role.

See his Statcast box below. We don't talk about defense often enough in fantasy baseball, as Abreu's sterling outfield play will keep him in the lineup, while providing him more at-bats against lefty pitching in 2026. The 12.3% barrel rate last year was the highest of his career and showed annual progress.

Abreu is a player who could easily outperform his draft position. He gets on base, has an acceptable strikeout rate, and above-average bat speed. Keep Abreu on your board. He is currently being drafted near Ramos and Adolis Garcia, and I feel Abreu has more upside than both.

Brett Baty, 2B/3B, New York Mets

ADP: 270

Baty seems to be a forgotten man these days, but he could be primed for a breakout with the New York Mets this season. In 432 plate appearances in 2025, Baty hit .254 with 18 home runs, 50 RBI, 53 runs, and eight stolen bases. Take a look at his Statcast data below.

He has near-elite bat speed at 74.8 MPH, and his 12.8% barrel rate is in the upper echelon of MLB players. I feel like his playing time is underprojected. Most of his at-bats could come at DH due to the acquisitions of Marcus Semien and Bo Bichette this offseason.

But I could easily see a scenario where he ends up playing first base at the expense of Jorge Polanco, who may be better-suited to the DH spot. That could add more positional flexibility for Baty. With an extended opportunity, Baty could hit 20+ homers and steal 10+ bases.

Miguel Vargas, 1B/3B, Chicago White Sox

ADP: 281

Before you start calling me a homer, please listen to my testimony on Vargas. In his first full season, Vargas hit a meager .234 with 16 home runs, 60 RBI, 80 runs, and six stolen bases. That's not bad, considering how lost he looked during two brief MLB stints.

With the addition of free agent Munetaka Murakami, Vargas will have a home at third base this season. Vargas should hit in the three or four slot on a team that is looking to improve with a more stable daily lineup.

Vargas could easily crack 20 home runs, score 80 runs again, and steal 10 bases with a cheap price tag as your corner infielder in deeper drafts. He hit .267 in the second half with .354 OBP, and all of his metrics showed growth in 2025. Take a longer look.

Justin Crawford, OF, Philadelphia Phillies

ADP: 265

This is a great speculative pick. I drafted Crawford in a couple of places, most recently, in the Tout Wars mixed auction draft last weekend. He's my fifth outfielder there, and I am hopeful that the young outfielder can exceed expectations with an excellent opportunity.

Crawford looks to have the starting center field job moving into the 2026 season. While power could be at a minimum, Crawford should help with a good batting average above .260 and could easily steal 25-30 bases with a daily chance to play.

Happy drafting this weekend, my friends! Always remember, fantasy baseball is supposed to be fun. Enjoy, and trust the process.

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