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Matt's running back (RB) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 16 of 2025. His RB lineups advice for Week 16 fantasy football start/sit decisions.
Week 15 was an interesting one for fantasy managers. If you started Travis Etienne Jr (31.5), James Cook III (31.1), or TreVeyon Henderson (30.1), then you moved one more step closer to that elusive fantasy championship.
The top 12 last week was a mixed bag with several returning running backs such as Bijan Robinson (29.5), Kyren Williams (21.8), and Saquon Barkley (17.2). There were also a few surprise candidates who had productive weeks, such as Tyrone Tracy Jr. ( 24.7) and Tony Pollard (18.2).
Now that we've reviewed last week's standouts and surprises, it’s time to make your RotoBaller running back start/sit choices for Week 16. Set your lineups with confidence and secure your spot in the playoffs—your fantasy championship run starts now!
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Week 16 - Potential Fantasy Football Booms
Aaron Jones Sr. - RB, Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants
Matchups are crucial in the fantasy playoffs. Last week, Jacory Croskey-Merritt exposed the Giants’ struggling run defense, which has allowed four touchdowns, 446 rushing yards, and 34.2 fantasy points per game over the last three games.
This week, we continue to pick on the Giants with Aaron Jones Sr. joining the mix. Don’t let the senior part throw you off; Jones still runs as hard as any back between the tackles, while offering a little finesse as a pass catcher out of the backfield as well.
With a favorable matchup, both Jones and Jordan Mason are viable, but Jones’ 57.7% opportunity share gives him the edge. Averaging 9.9 fantasy points per game since Week 9, with double-digit outings in three of seven contests, Jones shapes up as a strong flex play with RB2 upside.
Woody Marks - RB, Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Raiders
Woody Marks is easy to find on the football field. The Texans' running back is either attempting to run someone over or visiting with staff in the medical tent.
In the last two games, Marks has averaged 13.2 fantasy points. Since Week 10, his snap share has topped 70% with regular 20-plus touch games, making him a solid RB2 or flex play.
Watch the ball 👀#ProBowlVote + Woody Marks
📺 : @nflonfox pic.twitter.com/6oCS7y2oBy
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) December 14, 2025
Last week, Marks had only seven carries but did score, though it’s unclear if it was from a carry or a fumble recovery. Touchdowns have been his main fantasy issue, but this shouldn’t be a problem against the Raiders.
Look for Marks to continue his impressive play against a Raiders defense that has surrendered six rushing touchdowns (seven total) over the past four contests. Las Vegas has not only allowed 29.2 fantasy points per game since Week 12, but they are also allowing opposing backs to 154.5 yards of total offense per game over that period.
Bucky Irving - RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Last week, the volume was there for Irving. If that trend continues, Irving has an opportunity to be the overall RB1 this week, facing a bottom-10 fantasy defense against the running back position. Over the Panthers' previous three games, Carolina has surrendered 333 rushing yards (5.12 yards per carry), 100 receiving yards, four rushing touchdowns, and 26.4 fantasy points per game, the seventh-most
In all three games since Irving has returned, he has seen at least 18 touches and produced 70 or more yards in each contest, which makes him a strong volume play here against the Panthers. I’m sensing a bit of a pattern here that fantasy managers should not ignore.
This season, Irving is averaging 16 fantasy points per game. Since he returned from injury, he has averaged 13.4 fantasy points per game, but did manage to hit the 16-point threshold in the two previous games before last week's 8.1-point outlier performance against the Falcons. Now, if Todd Bowles would do us all a favor and leave Irving on for those goal-line touches, that would be great. This Sean Tucker thing was cute when it was just Rachaad White back there, but now it’s getting old.
Week 16 - Potential Fantasy Football Busts
Javonte Williams - RB, Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Chargers
In each of Javonte Williams’ past four games, the Dallas running back hasn’t finished any worse than the RB20 in fantasy and has continued to truck along, averaging 145.7 fantasy points per game over that span. In those four contests, Williams has seen at least 15 carries in each, which always carries a little extra value this time of the year.
Williams has been one of the best fantasy surprises here in 2025; however, this is not a great matchup for the Dallas Cowboys running back. In the last three contests, the Chargers have limited opposing backs to 12.6 fantasy points per game, the second-fewest over that period, and have yielded just 197 rushing yards over those three contests, with backs averaging a minuscule 3.52 yards per carry.
While no one is going to debate that Williams has outperformed both Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt this season, consider that the Chiefs' running back duo managed just 33 yards on 17 carries against the Chargers last week. This comparison highlights how difficult this matchup is for running backs.
Travis Etienne Jr. - RB, Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
Last week's matchup was a great one, and Travis Etienne rewarded fantasy managers. Etienne may have single-handedly sent fantasy managers onto the next round thanks to his three receptions for 73 yards, all of which resulted in touchdowns. If you take away Etienne’s rushing numbers, his 28.3 fantasy points as a pass catcher would have ranked second only to Amon-Ra St. Brown last week.
This week, the matchup is tougher. Last week, Etienne faced a Jets team allowing 38.7 fantasy points per game, but Denver has given up just 16.7 per game over their last three, the fifth-fewest.
You have to figure that after surrendering 6.1 yards per attempt to Josh Jacobs last week, the Broncos' defense will be looking at that film and making adjustments. Etienne’s performance feels like it is one that will set fantasy managers up for disappointment this week, so while you may feel obligated to plug Etienne back into your lineups this week, proceed with caution and make sure you mitigate that risk elsewhere in your lineups.
D’Andre Swift - RB, Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers
While there is some cautious optimism this week surrounding both Etienne and D’Andre Swift, veteran fantasy managers are well aware of the volatility that accompanies both these backs when it comes to fantasy football.
Swift is coming off his second 20-plus-point fantasy outing in the last three weeks and his 18.2 fantasy points per game since Week 13, the seventh-highest average over that period among running backs.
Against the Browns, one of the better run defenses in the NFL, the Bears' offensive line remained a mauling machine, helping Swift churn out 98 yards on 18 carries (5.4 yards per carry) and a pair of scores. Both Swift and Etienne, for that matter, have rewarded fantasy managers who chose to wait on the running back position; however, both face daunting tests ahead of them here in Week 16.
The last time Swift faced the Packers, he was held to 63 rushing yards on 13 attempts and finished with 11.2 PPR fantasy points in that Week 14 contest. Over the Packers' last four games, they have allowed 17.6 fantasy points per game, the sixth-fewest, and have allowed just a pair of touchdowns in those four games.
Like Etienne, if you are planning to start Swift, it is all the more critical that you have a contingency plan in place to mitigate the risk. There is a strong possibility that the Packers' offensive play could lead to a game script more favourable for Kyle Monangai, which would directly reduce Swift’s opportunities, clarifying the player comparison and risk.
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