Tight Ends Start 'Em, Sit 'Em and Fantasy Football Trends for Week 9 (2025)

October 30, 2025

Rob's tight end fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 9 of the 2025 season. Who should I start at tight end for fantasy football in Week 9 lineups?

We are entering the second half of the NFL season, and the tight-end position has once again become a cluster. There are about four good ones. Maybe George Kittle or Oronde Gadsden II will ascend into that elite tier. The latter is certainly playing like it.

However, this position has become a large group of players who are very similar to each other. We have our top four, then a second tier of about 6-7 tight ends, and then everyone else. It puts fantasy managers into a tough situation. We'll spend our time this week talking about that elite tier and identifying the best streamers for Week 9.

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Jake Ferguson With and Without CeeDee Lamb

Lamb was injured in the first quarter of Week 3. That means Ferguson has essentially played four games (Weeks 3-6) without Lamb and four games (Weeks 1-2 and 7-8) with Lamb. This gives us an even sample of games, and while fantasy managers shouldn't be completely panicking about Ferguson now that Lamb is back, it is clear that expectations need to be lowered.

Ferguson has averaged 8.9 half-PPR PPG with Lamb. That would rank as the TE10 for the season, right ahead of Sam LaPorta. That's certainly nothing to be upset about, but it's also not the TE4 and 11.9 half-PPR PPG average that he's sporting right now.

Not surprisingly, Ferguson's target rate and target share drop fairly drastically with Lamb in the lineup. What's maybe more concerning is Ferguson's goose egg this past weekend. He only had one target in Week 8. Ferguson had 18 targets in Weeks 1 and 2 with Lamb in the lineup, but that was still with George Pickens getting his feet wet in the Dallas offense.

With Pickens now fully acclimated to the Dallas offense, Ferguson could now be the No. 3 option on some weeks. That didn't happen early in the year, even with Lamb in the lineup. The Dallas defense is still highly suspect, and the pass volume will still be elite.

Dak Prescott is absolutely balling, so no one should be expecting the floor to be pulled out from underneath Ferguson, but it's clear he's not going to be the same player he had been in recent weeks, most of which were with Lamb out of the lineup.

Who is "The" No. 1 Tight End?

With all due respect to Jake Ferguson and Brock Bowers, I'm putting my money on Trey McBride, Tucker Kraft, or Tyler Warren to finish as this year's No. 1 tight end. I'll give a shout-out to George Kittle here as well, but he's only played in three games, so we'll leave him out of the discussion at this point. Although I believe he could factor into this race.

Ferguson just hasn't seen the same volume or production with Lamb on the field, and Geno Smith has been atrocious. So, for now, we're going to focus on Warren, Kraft, and McBride. We'll be comparing these three tight ends based on their statistical performance at the halfway point of the season.

I should probably mention Dallas Goedert, who is averaging 12.3 half-PPR PPG, but his touchdown production is highly unlikely to continue. One could make a similar argument against Kraft as well. Goedert currently has a 17.9% touchdown rate; Kraft's is 14.6%. Focusing on the three tight ends in the table above, you can see that Kraft has a significant advantage in terms of touchdowns scored despite having fewer overall targets, red-zone targets, and end-zone targets than McBride.

This can be explained by the difference in offensive efficiency and quarterback play. About McBride, it's important to note that two of his four touchdowns were via Jacoby Brissett in his two starts only. The other two touchdowns came from Kyler Murray in his five other games. McBride also only had two receiving touchdowns all of last season.

McBride holds a significant advantage over Kraft and Warren in several relevant statistics. The first is route share. He is averaging 36.3 routes per game, while Warren is at 26.5 and Kraft is at 24.7. That has helped McBride to another significant advantage in terms of targets per game. While their target rates are fairly similar (22% to 25%), McBride averages 4.5 more targets per game than Kraft and almost three more targets per game than Warren.

The other area McBride holds a major lead in is red-zone and end-zone targets. McBride has eight end-zone targets. Kraft and Warren have five combined. This major difference shows up in terms of their expected half-PPR PPG. McBride's expected half-PPR PPG is 16.3, significantly higher than Warren (11.3) and Kraft (10.1).

Where Warren and Kraft have the advantage is in their quarterback play and offensive efficiency. The Colts and Packers are two of the best offenses in the NFL. Whereas Kraft is a likely touchdown regression candidate in the second half of the season, Warren should be expected to score more. The number of targets near the end zone (both red and end zone) is very similar, yet Kraft is averaging more than twice Warren's touchdowns per game.

Based on the numbers above, if you were a betting individual, I'd put money on McBride or Kraft finishing as "the" TE1. I'd either bet on McBride's overall volume or on Kraft's elite efficiency, both tied to the Packers offense and MVP candidate Jordan Love. Kittle is a dark horse if we go by half-PPR PPG, but if I had to choose, I'd go with McBride. The return of Christian Watson and eventually Jayden Reed, along with the assumed touchdown regression, could limit Kraft down the stretch.

Who Are the Best Weekly Streamers in Week 9?

This is the first time I've included this section in this particular article, but I think I'll make it a mainstay. The question becomes, what is a streamer? How do we define that?

We'll define that as any tight end with a rostered percentage below 70%, based on ESPN. Looking at the rankings below, that includes everyone from Hunter Henry at No. 13 and below, except T.J. Hockenson. Everyone else below Henry is available in under 70% of ESPN leagues. We'll rank the best streamers below.

Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders

Ertz gets the Seattle Seahawks in Week 9. Seattle has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season at 12.6 half-PPR PPG. Jayden Daniels will be back under center, improving the offensive efficiency and increasing scoring opportunities. Terry McLaurin has also been ruled out, limiting some of Ertz's target competition.

Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears

Henry is ranked one spot ahead of Loveland because we don't know Cole Kmet's availability this week. Kmet was back at practice on Wednesday after missing Week 8. If Kmet returns this week, Loveland's value would decrease, but the Bears could still opt to limit Kmet's snaps in his first game back or shift to Loveland being their primary tight end. Those are the concerns.

The upside comes from Chicago playing the Bengals. They've allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends this season at 18.5 half-PPR PPG. Chicago and Cincinnati's defenses have been subpar this year (Cincy's far more than Chicago's). This gives this game high shootout potential. Also, Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, Luther Burden III, and Olamide Zaccheaus all missed practice on Wednesday. If any of them miss Week 9 or are not 100%, Loveland becomes more intriguing.

Jonnu Smith, Pittsburgh Steelers

Pat Freiermuth did not practice on Wednesday due to a bruised quad. If he were to miss this weekend's game, Smith would jump somewhat significantly in weekly rankings. Smith and Freiermuth have cut into each other's route share and targets. If Freiermuth were to be inactive, Smith would have much more opportunity, which would be great!

Pittsburgh plays the Colts this weekend. This is a great matchup for two different reasons. The first is that the Colts are likely to beat the Steelers, and they'll do so handily.

That'll put Pittsburgh in a situation where it has to lean on the pass, increasing Smith's opportunity even more. The second is that the Colts have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. If Freiermuth is out, Smith would flirt with top-15 status this week.

Week 9 Rankings

1. Tucker Kraft vs. Panthers

2. Trey McBride at Cowboys

3. Tyler Warren at Steelers

4. George Kittle at Giants

5. Brock Bowers vs. Jaguars

6. Jake Ferguson vs. Cardinals

7. Oronde Gadsden II at Titans

8. Sam LaPorta vs. Vikings

9. Travis Kelce at Bills

10. Kyle Pitts Sr. at Patriots

11. Mark Andrews at Dolphins

12. Dalton Kincaid vs. Chiefs

13. Zach Ertz vs. Seahawks

14. Hunter Henry vs. Falcons

15. Colston Loveland at Bengals

16. Dalton Schultz vs. Broncos

17. T.J. Hockenson at Lions

18. Theo Johnson vs. 49ers

19. Evan Engram at Texans

20. Jonnu Smith vs. Colts

21. Juwan Johnson at Rams

22. Noah Fant vs. Bears

23. AJ Barner at Commanders

24. Chig Okonkwo vs. Chargers

25. Tyler Higbee vs. Saints

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