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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 101: Dern vs. Ribas 2 on 1/11/25. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
The UFC is back from Christmas break, and it takes place this Saturday at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nev. The main event features a strawweight rematch between Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas. In the co-main event, Santiago Ponzinibbio of Argentina faces Carlston Harris of Guyana at welterweight.
Also on the main card, we have Cesar Almeida taking on Albul Razak Alhassan, Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov at middleweight, Christian Rodriguez facing off against Austin Bashi, and Punahele Soriano taking on Uros Medic. Prelims are headlined by Jose Johnson and Felipe Bunes in the flyweight division. There’s also former main eventer Thiago Moises facing off against Trey Ogden.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 101: Dern vs. Ribas 2 on 1/11/25. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Women's Strawweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Amanda Ribas, $8,500 - vs. Mackenzie Dern
An intriguing strawweight rematch between UFC contenders Amanda Ribas and Mackenzie Dern is scheduled for the main event of UFC Vegas 101. The fight was originally slated for UFC Tampa in December 2024 but was rescheduled for this week's event. Dern and Ribas first met in October 2019, with Ribas winning a fairly dominant unanimous decision victory in that bout.
She never backs down 😤@AmandaRibasUFC looks to show out in the #UFCVegas101 main event!
[ LIVE Jan 11 on @ESPNPlus at 7 PM ET ] pic.twitter.com/1rMAor11mv
— UFC (@ufc) January 10, 2025
In her fight against Dern, Ribas beat up Dern on the feet and took her down a couple of times. She also avoided all six of Dern’s takedown attempts. Ribas’ most recent outing was a March 2024 unanimous decision loss to former two-time UFC strawweight champion Rose Namajunas at flyweight.
Since then, Ribas has climbed her way to the top 10 in both strawweight and flyweight divisions. She is one of two women in the UFC, along with Jessica Andrade, and is currently ranked in two different weight classes. Ribas has gone 3-4 in her last seven bouts.
Back in August, Dern got back in the win column and snapped a two-fight losing streak by defeating Lupita Godinez by unanimous decision. Before that, Dern lost to former title challengers Amanda Lemos and Jessica Andrade. Dern started her UFC career with a 5-1 record, with her sole loss being her 2019 decision setback to Ribas. Since then, she's gone 7-4, earning some solid wins by beating Tecia Pennington and Angela Hill.
Ribas enters this fight with an MMA record of 13-5 and is 7-4 in the UFC. She is averaging 4.63 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 40%. Ribas has a striking defense of 61% and is absorbing 3.40 significant strikes per minute. Her grappling is also solid, averaging 2.07 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.2 submission attempts during the same period. Ribas has a takedown accuracy of 51% and a takedown defense of 85%.
Dern enters this fight with an MMA record of 14-5 and is 9-5 in the UFC. She is averaging 3.43 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 39%. Dern is absorbing 4.12 significant strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 51%. In regards to her grappling, Dern is averaging 0.88 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.2 submission attempts during the same period. Dern has a takedown accuracy of 16% and a takedown defense of 30%.
When it comes to her striking, Ribas is not the best defensively but she is a crisp striker, having a strong grappling background with judo as her base. Even though she's on a two-fight losing streak, Ribas enters this fight as the favorite.
If she can have Dern keep up a high output, Ribas should be able to pick up the win. Dern's only chance is to get this fight to the ground and either control Ribas or submit her, but she hasn't improved enough in the wrestling department to take Ribas down. My prediction is that Ribas will defeat Dern again via unanimous decision.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Carlston Harris, $8,200 - vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
This weekend, welterweights Carlston Harris and Santiago Ponzinibbio are scheduled for a three-round bout in the co-main event of UFC Vegas 101. Harris is coming off a first-round KO loss to Khaos Williams in his last fight at UFC Vegas 92 in May 2024, whereas Ponzinibbio is coming off a split decision loss in his last fight against Muslim Salikhov at UFC Denver in July 2024.
Harris made his UFC debut in 2021 and has gone 4-2 in the promotion. In his UFC debut, he defeated Christian Aguilera via first-round anaconda choke. His first loss in the UFC was to the title challenger Shavkat Rakhmonov, but after that, Harris picked up back-to-back wins over Jared Gooden and Jeremiah Wells. Most recently, Harris fought Williams but only managed to survive a minute and a half before getting knocked out.
Ponzinibbio has gone 11-7 under the UFC promotion since 2013. At one point, Ponzinibbio was on a seven-fight winning streak but has not looked the same since injury and illness struck him down. He has gone 2-5 in his last seven bouts and is currently on a two-fight losing streak. His last two losses include a knockout to Kevin Holland and a split decision, last time out, to Muslim Salikhov.
Harris enters this fight as the underdog with an MMA record of 19-6. He is averaging 3.18 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. Harris is absorbing 2.66 significant strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling is solid, averaging 1.97 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 29% and a takedown defense of 55%.
Ponzinibbio enters this fight as the favorite with an MMA record of 30-8. He is averaging 4.74 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 41%. Ponzinibbio's striking defense is 61% and he's absorbing 4.55 strikes per minute. His grappling is only decent, averaging 0.59 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 32% and a takedown defense of 66%.
I don't see Ponzinibbio winning this fight, as it seems like he has slowed down quite a bit at this late stage of his career. Harris has a suspect chin and he isn’t technically the best fighter, but his long reach allows him to hit hard with some awkward strikes. My prediction is that Harris will knock Ponzinibbio out in the third round.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Cesar Almeida, $9,300 - vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan
The fourth fight on the main card at UFC Vegas 101 features a middleweight bout between Cesar Almeida and Abdul Razak Alhassan. Alhassan's last fight ended up in a No Contest after accidental blows to the back of the head, while Almeida got back in the win column by defeating Ihor Potieria via unanimous decision at UFC 307.
Almeida enters this fight with an MMA record of 6-1. He is an accomplished professional kickboxer who has competed for glory and has now transitioned to MMA. Since signing with the UFC, Almeida has gone 2-1, defeating Dylan Budka and Potieria and losing to Roman Kopylov, who exposed Almeida's weakness, which is his wrestling and grappling.
Alhassan enters this fight with an MMA record of 12-6 and is 6-6 in the UFC. He is known for his explosive power and quick finishes, with all 12 of his wins coming by knockout. Alhassan headed into 2024 looking to rebound from a tough loss to Joe Pyfer, but the year was mostly a waste as his last fight against Cody Brundage ended in a No Contest after just 37 seconds.
Almeida is averaging 4.12 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. He is absorbing 2.18 strikes and has a striking defense of 47%. Almeida's takedown defense is 57%, but other than that, he has shown no grappling ability in the UFC so far.
Alhassan is averaging 3.62 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. He is absorbing 3.97 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%. In regards to his grappling, Alhassan is averaging 0.88 takedowns every 15 minutes. His takedown defense is 51% and he has a takedown accuracy of 38%.
I don't think this fight will go the distance. Alhassan is likely going to come out swinging, searching for a knockout, but his best approach would be to mix it up, take Almeida down, and eventually finish him on the ground. Almeida needs to use footwork and technical striking to keep his back off the cage and I think he will do just that. My prediction is that Almeida wins this one via unanimous decision.
