RADIO
Michael F. Florio starts his scouting report series for the 2024 NFL Draft with his two elite QBs. What makes Caleb Williams so special in real life and fantasy football purposes? Is Jayden Daniels the next Lamar Jackson?
NFL Draft season is here! I have been covering the draft for a few years now and there has been a recent class that will have more of an impact on fantasy than this one. We could see six QBs go in the first round and even more pass-catchers.
You have definitely heard plenty of hype around some of these players and now we are reaching the time of the year when you will hear lots of rumors and smokescreens. It is important to ignore the noise and focus on what really matters -- how talented a player is and how they can perform in the NFL and fantasy football.
Now no one has a crystal ball -- but knowing what a player does well and the style of play gives you a huge leg up on the competition when it comes to identifying rookies to target in fantasy. And at the QB position, no one can get in the head of a player, so it's hard to tell who will be a good QB at the next level. But identifying traits that could make them good fantasy assets is very important this time of year.
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Scouting the Elite 2024 QB Prospects
Caleb Williams is the cream of the crop in this draft class. One thing I have said repeatedly is you have to be a very good prospect for the biggest knock to be that a player paints his nails. And Williams is as good of a QB prospect as we have seen in years. All you have to do is throw on any of Williams’ college film and the playmaking ability immediately jumps out at you. He is a tremendous playmaker and the ultimate improviser. Williams is mobile, but do not expect him to put up huge rushing numbers in the NFL. Rather, he uses his legs to create time, keeping his eyes downfield so he can unleash his cannon and find a receiver downfield.
That is what also jumps out when you watch Williams. He has an insanely strong arm and can heave it across his body for 50-plus yards. He immediately joins the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Anthony Richardson as QBs with nukes for an arm. There is no throw he cannot make. He also excels at throwing off-platform and can throw from a variety of arm angles.
Williams also is accurate and always puts the ball where he gives his receivers a shot to make a play. He is a special player with special abilities and he knows it. Sometimes he tries to force it and play hero ball -- but what do you expect when his college team routinely allowed 40 points and had shoddy offensive line play -- I would always rather a QB be too aggressive and need a coach to reign him in a bit than vice versa.
His aggressiveness can lead to turnovers, which could be his one knock in college. He did try at times to force throws and trust his arm too much -- but that should be expected from a young QB with an arm like his. There will be some growing pain in this regard, but he should improve with age and experience.
One game that often gets brought up is his three-interception game against a great Notre Dame secondary last season. All three of his interceptions in that game (and nearly a fourth) came while under pressure. He did struggle while under pressure in college, but again, he was asked to cover up a ton of blemishes for USC last year. He should clean up his game at the NFL level, especially if he ends up in Chicago, which is as friendly of a landing spot for a No. 1 QB in quite some time.
The stats back up what stands out on film as well. Check out the thread below for a full statistical breakdown of Williams and how he compares to other QBs in this class.
Caleb Williams Statistical Prospect Breakdown! 2023 season stats and comparison to the top 11 QBs in this draft class
- 3,777 pass yds (5th)
- 30 pass TDs (4th)
- 6.2% big time throw (6th)
- 64.6% completion (5th)
- 74.3% adjusted completion (5th)
- 108.4 rating (4th)— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) February 12, 2024
I do not like comping a player to arguably the most talented to ever play the position, but I am going to do so anyway here. Williams reminds me of Patrick Mahomes in a couple of different ways. The off-platform throws and creative arm angles for one.
But the biggest way he reminds me of Mahomes is as a runner. He is not going to run all the time, but when he does, he is deceiving and knows when to pick his spots. The other way is as a fantasy asset. I believe Williams is going to put up strong passing numbers yearly.
He also can run for 300 to 400 yards and is a sneaky runner near the goal line (he is better than Mahomes in that regard). Once he finds his footing in the league, the big passing numbers, paired with just enough rushing, should be enough to keep him in the top fantasy QB convo for years even if he does not run as much as some of his peers in that group.
My prospect breakdown with a fantasy spin on Caleb Williams! #NFLDraft #FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/B3GyuistpL
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) March 18, 2024
Williams is the dynasty QB1 and for redraft should be drafted as a QB2, inside the top-20 fantasy QBs. He has the upside for having a C.J. Stroud-type rookie year where he finishes as a QB1 due to some strong passing numbers. He also should be able to sustain two high-end pass-catchers if he ends up in a certain Midwest city known for its wind.
You can tell immediately who is a serious fantasy player by how they talk about it. No doubt Caleb has played fantasy before! 😂
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) March 1, 2024
Jayden Daniels, the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner, is my QB2 in this class for real-life and dynasty purposes but likely will be my top rookie QB pick for the 2024 redraft, depending on the landing spot. When you watch Daniels, the first thing that jumps out is his blazing speed as a runner. Not only is he fast, but he is elusive and can make defenders miss. He scored an 86-yard rushing touchdown in college while outrunning corners and safeties.
There are only a handful of QBs -- if even that many -- with that ability at the NFL level. He also is a good red-zone runner and should add plenty of value with some rushing touchdowns. It does not matter if it is a designed run or if he is improvising, Daniels' legs are going to make him a problem at the NFL level and a great fantasy asset.
As a passer, Daniels has elite timing. He can drop the ball into his receiver's hands on deep passes and has a knack for putting the ball exactly where it has to be even before his receiver makes his move. He also can handle pressure well and does not let it impact his timing. He can manipulate defenders with his eyes and does not just look to run if his first read is not available. He throws a very pretty and accurate deep ball. While arm strength is not a negative, he isn’t elite in this regard like Williams is. But his timing makes up for any concerns you may have.
And it’s not just the timing that stands out. Daniels has good placement and often puts the ball where only his receivers can make a play on it. Additionally, he puts his guys in a position to do damage after the catch -- which is an underrated QB skill. He has good touch and can layer the ball to all three levels and has a strong enough arm to put the ball on a rope when he has to. Daniels is a very toolsy prospect both as a runner and passer.
Statistically, he stood out in this class as a passer under pressure, deep-ball thrower, and as a runner, to no surprise. The thread below breaks down how his stats compare to the other QBs in this class.
Jayden Daniels Statistical Prospect Breakdown! 2023 season stats and comparison to the top 11 QBs in this draft class
- 3,823 pass yds (3rd)
- 40 pass TDs (2nd)
- 92 PFF pass grade (2nd)
- 4 INT (3rd fewest)
- 8.4% big time throw (1st)
- 1.7% turnover worthy plays (2nd lowest)— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) February 14, 2024
However, no prospect is perfect and Daniels has some areas he could improve. One thing that stood out to me is his accuracy can be a bit touch-and-go. He had some easy misses where he threw behind his receiver on short or quick passes. He also overthrew his target on the deep ball at times by throwing too out in front (which is better than underthrowing).
His misses did not lead to turnovers in college, but the fear is that they could be in the pros. Sometimes he looks a little hesitant while reading coverages. While this is not a knock on him, it is very possible his WR room was more talented at LSU than it may be in the NFL (if he ends up in New England).
The biggest knock, though, has to be the big hits he took. What makes Daniels so appealing both in real life and especially in fantasy is his rushing ability. So we never want him to be less aggressive there. He just needs to learn when to slide, step out of bounds, or accept fewer yards in order to protect himself. This is a lesson many young QBs have to learn -- think Josh Allen and Anthony Richardson, who still needs to make adjustments himself. Daniels has a tall, skinny frame, and if he wants to consistently be on the field more, he must improve in this regard.
My player comp for Daniels is a hybrid of Lamar Jackson and Robert Griffin III in a Tyrod Taylor frame. That last part is problematic, but the first two show you the talent and upside he possesses. For fantasy, I think he is the only QB in this class that can run for 800-plus yards and he could do so in Year 1.
Think of Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, and even the small sample from Richardson last year. These mobile QBs have consistently been QB1s in fantasy from the moment they get to start. Daniels has that upside -- but you will only have to draft him as a QB2 in redraft, likely as a low-end QB1 at that.
A realistic expectation in Year 1 is Justin Fields-type production -- a lot of rushing and enough passing to make him a very valuable asset. The ceiling in his career is Jackson, but he needs to make strides as a passer before he gets there. He is the QB2 of this class for dynasty purposes.
Jayden Daniels is my QB2 for real life purposes in this draft class. But you should get VERY excited for fantasy football purposes! #NFLDraft2024 #fantasyfootball pic.twitter.com/eeomoKecaE
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) April 1, 2024
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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