RADIO
In this week’s IDP rankings article, I lampooned Arthur Smith as an offensive coach who can’t score points and gets bailed out by his defense and soft schedule. Today, I'd like to touch on another offensive coach who some are giving too much credit this week. That coach is Nathaniel Hackett. While the Jets rightly criticized Sean Payton and were understandably happy to beat him for their offensive coordinator, the headlines suggesting “Hacket Beat Payton” are off target.
Entering Week 5, the Denver Broncos had allowed the most offensive yards (461.5) and points per game (37.5) in the NFL. The Broncos were on pace to allow more points and yards than any team in the past 20 years. Worse, 94% of the points allowed by Denver had been from offensive touchdowns, with zero D/ST scores and just five FG attempts forced. Going against that cupcake defense, you’d expect the Jets’ offense to produce multiple touchdowns… but they didn’t.
While Zach Wilson is one reason New York scored just one offensive touchdown against a defense that usually gives up five, Hackett’s scheme is another. In fact, Denver’s offense has improved in points and yards per game without Hackett, while New York averages fewer yards with him. Worse, in Week 5, the Jets settled for FGs as often as the Broncos' past four opponents combined. In fact, almost all the data suggests Hackett’s team won for him, not with him.
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Casual IDP Streamers and Fades
Stream: Jack Gibbens, LB, Tennessee Titans
Gibbens is rostered in just 2% of IDP leagues, making him the 61st most rostered LB in fantasy. However, he ranks as LB33 in my standard scoring, despite Gibbens' playing time not spiking over 70% until Week 3. In Tennessee’s past three games, he is averaging a hefty 9.7 tackles. Now he gets the Ravens, who have fed opposing linebackers so far.
Despite pre-season speculation, Baltimore is still a run-oriented team (4th in rush attempts per game). As a result, they routinely supply opposing linebackers with fantasy points. Through five weeks, the top opposing LB facing Baltimore has averaged a healthy 11.5 standard IDP points. The second linebacker on opposing teams is averaging nine fantasy points per game. Gibbens and Azeez Al-Shaair are solid plays this week.
Stream: Jason Pinnock, DB, New York Giants
Rostered in just 1.7% of IDP leagues and starting in just 1.4%, Pinnock is the 13th highest-scoring DB in standard IDP scoring this season. He's playing every snap on a Giants defense that stays on the field a ton, seeing the 45th most snaps amongst defensive backs. While that number may seem low, approximately 150 starting defensive backs have seen fewer fantasy opportunities than Pinnock.
This week, Pinnock faces a Bengals offense averaging the second most pass attempts in the NFL over the past three weeks. Against a mediocre Arizona defense and a backup quarterback in Week 5, Cincinnati attempted a whopping 46 passes. There's reason to believe the Bengals will continue this torrid pace as their offense gets on track, too. That should mean plus volume for Pinnock and others in the Giants' secondary.
Fade: Harold Landry III, Tennessee Titans
Landry has just five quarterback pressures this season, which ties him for 155th most amongst all DLs in fantasy. His pass rush win rate is an abysmal 5.2%, which is good for 220th at his position. He has exactly one quarterback hit, which is 116th at his position. For context, those numbers are abysmal for a player playing on nearly 90% of his team's pass-rush snaps.
While Baltimore is neither a good nor a bad matchup for opposing pass rushers, with their blockers rating league average in pressure allowed, it's hard to trust Landry until his production improves. He is the 14th most rostered DL in fantasy right now and the 67th most productive… and that production is actually better than his metrics say it should be.
Fade: Denzel Perryman, LB, Houston Texans
Perryman returned to action last week, starting at middle linebacker with a cast. He wasn't his usual self, however. He played just 45% of Houston's defensive snaps while ceding time and production to the younger duo of Christian Harris and Henry To'oTo'o.
It is unclear whether Perryman's snaps will pick up this week, but To'oTo'o played particularly well while filling the veteran's shoes. There's no incentive for Houston to build the older Perryman up if the younger and cheaper options are performing as well or better, either. So, it's hard to trust that Perryman, the 12th most-started LB in fantasy right now, will get the snaps he needs to validate his current start/roster rate.
Premium/Deep League Streamers and Fades
Stream: Leonard Floyd, DL, Buffalo Bills
Considering Floyd has six sacks on the season, he should be a rather obvious streaming option in deeper IDP leagues. However, he is rostered in just 1.5% of IDP leagues and is being started in 0.8%.
Floyd's advanced metrics suggest his sack production is higher than it should be. He isn't amongst the top 50 in pressure rates this year, and his pass rush win rate is 119th amongst all edge rushers. However, he has an elite matchup against the New York Giants, who have allowed the most quarterback pressures in the NFL and could be without their starting quarterback. That matchup is enough to roll with Floyd one more week.
Stream: Ivan Pace Jr., LB, Minnesota Vikings
As I've mentioned in this space multiple times, the metrics and film on Pace are strong. He can impact the game in multiple ways. This week, he also has a promising matchup with the Bears.
Chicago’s offensive front is in tatters. They have four starters with a positive blocking grade on PFF. One of them is on IR (Braxton Jones), another is dealing with a concussion (Lucas Patrick), and another (Khalil Herbert) is doubtful with a high ankle sprain. They could also be without their backup RB in Roschon Johnson, who is questionable as of this writing. Thus, D’Onta Foreman is on deck.
Considering the litany of injuries for Chicago, Justin Fields should lean even more on a select few weapons. That means plenty of D.J. Moore, short passes to Cole Kmet, quarterback keepers, and Foreman runs up the middle. Players like Kmet, Foreman, and Fields play into Pace's versatile skillset.
Fade: Carlton Davis III, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Davis has returned from injury and largely looks like himself. Meaning, he has looked like a solid fantasy CB option who collects tackles and PD opportunities. This week is a poor matchup for him, though.
Jared Goff is tied for the fewest turnover-worthy plays amongst all starting NFL quarterbacks. His offense also averages the ninth fewest pass attempts in the league, and he's attempted only 22 throws to Davis' usual side of the field all year. To make matters worse, the Lions’ star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is practicing and trending towards playing. St. Brown takes half his snaps inside, where Davis very rarely goes.
Fade: Michael Hoecht, DL/LB, Los Angeles Rams
I've bashed on Hoecht before, but let's be fair. Finding guys to fade in deep IDP leagues can be tough. That said, it's still hard to understand why Michael Hoecht's roster rate and analyst rankings are increasing while his playing time and production are decreasing.
Hoecht's metrics remain amongst the worst at his position in the league. PFF grades him in the red as an overall defender, tackler, and in coverage. His missed tackle rate of 22% is one of the worst at his position, and he's generated absolutely no sacks or turnovers since Week 1. A player averaging just two solo tackles per game while adding zero big plays should not be started ahead of Joey Bosa or Trey Hendrickson, but he is.
Defenders Worth Adding
Calijah Kancey, DT/DL, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If you play in a deep dynasty league that requires you to start DTs, you may want to see if Kancey is available on waivers or for trade. He probably is, given he's out there in 99.8% of IDP leagues as of this writing.
The Pitt product hasn't done anything as a pro and he’s struggled with injuries so far, so his stock may never be lower than it is. His pass-rush film in college was tremendous, though. If the Bucs can figure out how to properly utilize him, this rookie could be valuable in dynasty IDP leagues next year.
Kerby Joseph, DB, Detroit Lions
Rostered in just 1% of leagues, Joseph plays 100% of Detroit's snaps when healthy. He was a DB2 mainstay for us in the back half of 2022, too. Joseph also has the potential to lead the DB position in tackles in any given week, while occasionally producing a big play or two.
Injuries and a lack of notoriety have driven down his cost, but Joseph is better than he's being treated.
Nate Landman, LB, Atlanta Falcons
With Troy Andersen on IR, Landman has filled in admirably. The Colorado product has played in three games where the Falcons gave him 87% or more of the snaps. He's averaged 6.7 total tackles and 4.3 solo tackles in those opportunities. He's an underrated LB3 or LB4 option who is available in 97.4% of leagues.
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