RADIO
As we enter Week 5 and the first round of byes, it is a good time to take stock of what IDP managers could be doing better. After all, we are here to advise the masses, aren't we? One way to help IDP managers improve, especially in shallow formats, is to consider the problems with current roster rates. In short, who is rostered in too many leagues and rostered in too few?
The star of this exercise has to be Shaq Leonard, whom I discussed in my Week 5 IDP Rankings. He remains the 12th most rostered LB in fantasy and is in 45% of lineups. Harold Landry III is another name worth mentioning, since he is the 12th most rostered DL despite collecting a woeful 9.5 casual IDP points all year. Honorable mentions also go to Bradley Chubb, Sauce Gardner, and Xavier McKinney. All of these players are over-rostered in shallow/casual IDP leagues.
As for players available in far too many leagues, Jordyn Brooks leads the pack as the 23rd most rostered LB in fantasy despite ranking as my LB4 rest of season. Close behind Brooks is Quay Walker, the 18th most rostered LB and my LB8 rest of season. Joining them are Jaelan Phillips (87% available), Rashan Gary (97%), Talanoa Hufanga (79%), and Camryn Bynum (88%). Each player is a year-long starter in shallow leagues but is widely available.
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Casual IDP Streamers and Fades
Stream: Brian Branch, DB, Detroit Lions
Branch is rostered in 9% of IDP leagues while playing 69% or more of the Lions' defensive snaps every game. The Alabama product is being used as a hybrid weapon, which has netted him three positive fantasy outputs in four games. His production has been above average in those games despite injuries stealing early snaps from his resume. Now he gets a positive matchup with the Panthers.
Carolina runs a surprisingly up-tempo offense this year, averaging 67.8 offensive plays per game. For perspective, only two teams averaged more offensive plays per game in the past two seasons. Bryce Young also ranks fourth in the NFL in turnover-worthy plays despite missing a game due to injury. Those figures suggest the Lions' secondary should have multiple big-play opportunities against Carolina.
Stream: Jalen Carter, DL, Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Carter still isn't playing enough regular snaps to be an every-week starter in shallow IDP formats. He's also having poor luck in the big play department, considering his advanced pass rushing metrics are unequivocally tremendous. There is considerable reason to like Carter this week, though.
For starters, Carter is 11th in the NFL in pass rush win rate. He is tied for eighth in quarterback pressures and fourth in quarterback hurries, and he's playing 100% of the Eagles' passing downs. He's also facing a Rams team that allows seven pressures per game from the interior, plus five sacks inside. With Los Angeles averaging the most pass attempts per game this year, they are a prime matchup for Carter.
Fade: Nick Bolton, LB, Kansas City Chiefs
If Bolton is active, you likely have to start him. You may not have a choice with three elite fantasy LBs on bye. That said, there are multiple second-tier LBs readily available in shallow leagues who are healthier and have a better matchup.
As we've stated, the Vikings struggle to establish the run and have thrown more than all but two teams in the NFL. The Vikings also send plenty of targets deep and to the edges. Minnesota's defense is unlikely to keep this one close, so expect a typical Vikings call script. That could lead to iffy volume for a banged-up Bolton.
Fade: Jordan Poyer & Micah Hyde, DBs, Buffalo Bills
One reason to fade Poyer is his injury status. Poyer missed last weekend's game against the Dolphins due to injury, and his playing time was compromised the two games prior. If Poyer does play against the Jags, he could continue to see limited snaps and compromised effectiveness against a deceptively stingy opponent.
Trevor Lawrence is tied for the second-fewest turnover-worthy plays of any starting quarterback this year. He also has the fourth-lowest average depth of target (ADOT). That conservative style of play isn't moving the ball like you'd hope, but it’s helping Lawrence avoid turnovers and negative plays. While Jacksonville's offense ranks 15th in yards per game and 20th in points, Lawrence is PFF’s third-highest graded passer.
Premium/Deep League Streamers and Fades
Stream: Henry To’oTo’o, Houston Texans
The rookie with an impossibly complicated name was an underrated prospect in this year's Draft. A mid-round caliber prospect, To'oTo'o has played over 80% of the Texans' snaps in each of the past three games. He's also registered seven tackles or more in each of those contests, even when Denzel Perryman was active.
The Falcons have been generous to opposing linebackers since their slog fest against Carolina in Week 1. Quay Walker registered 14.5 standard fantasy points against them, Jack Campbell logged 7.5 points on just 38 snaps, and Foyesade Oluokun tallied 9.5 in a game the Jags controlled. Consider the widely available To'oTo'o (rostered in just 4% of IDP leagues) a solid bye-week fill-in, especially if Perryman misses more time.
Stream: Emmanuel Moseley, DB, Detroit Lions
Moseley is projected to earn his first start of the season this week. His struggle to recover from knee surgery is likely why he is available in 99.7% of all IDP leagues.
As we stated earlier with Brian Branch, the Lions' secondary has a plus matchup against Carolina. With the Panthers attempting over 40 passes per game and Bryce Young struggling with turnover-worthy plays, Detroit's corners are a very high-upside gamble in deep formats. Moseley has a history of earning targets and turning them into PDs. He is a premium streamer if he is a full go on Sunday.
Fade: Jimmie Ward, DB, Houston Texans
I am projecting the Texans to throw the ball successfully against Atlanta, largely because of how efficient and calm C.J. Stroud has been in the face of pressure. It’s also hard to imagine the Falcons will put more pressure on him than Pittsburgh did. With that said, the expectation should be that Desmond Ridder will have to throw some, and that's good for the Texans' secondary… right?
The primary reason I am dinging Ward is not his matchup. It’s the fact his production doesn’t support his fantasy start rate. The former 49er is currently rostered and started in more leagues than Harrison Smith, Brian Branch, and Darius Slay, just to name a few. I mention those names because they’ve each tripled Ward’s fantasy output this season. Ward is rostered ahead of dozens of safer fantasy assets this week.
Fade: Zach Seiler, DL, Miami Dolphins
I will return to this well because it's deep and generous. My feelings on Seiler are much like those on Jimmie Ward. Neither player has a particularly bad matchup this week and both are solid talents. However, Seiler and Ward are both rostered in FAR too many leagues. Based on their history of fantasy outputs and the players more available than them, these two are easy players to fade/drop.
Chase Young is a fine example of a high upside defender who is rostered in fewer leagues than Seiler, despite Young scoring more fantasy points than Sieler in fewer games. Josh Sweat is another strong example, as a defender who has nearly doubled Seiler's fantasy production but is rostered in half as many leagues. Rashan Gary and Nik Bonitto are two more examples of better options rostered in far fewer leagues.
Defenders Worth Adding
Nik Bonitto, DL/LB, Denver Broncos
If you follow my articles, you know Bonitto was one of my favorite sleepers from last year's Draft. He's available in 99.7% of IDP leagues despite logging 3.5 sacks in his first four games. Very little is going right for Denver's defense, but Bonitto has seen over 60% of the snaps since Week 2 and has produced as a pass rusher in those games.
Note: Bonitto was on this list before Randy Gregory's release. Gregory's exit further solidifies Bonitto’s fantasy value.
Julian Blackmon, DB, Indianapolis Colts
Blackmon has ascended into the upper tiers of our weekly rankings. However, he's rostered in just 3.4% of IDP formats.
Blackmon is averaging a respectable 7.5 standard fantasy points per game. As a result, he ranks 20th amongst DBs in standard fantasy scoring this year. Despite his performance and high usage, he is the 70th most rostered DB in fantasy. More people need to roster Blackmon, in all formats.
Ivan Pace Jr., LB, Minnesota Vikings
I remain high on Pace Jr, a player who appeared regularly in my pre-season articles. Pace is currently the 62nd most rostered LB in fantasy, while his fantasy production ranks 50th. Although that divide isn’t particularly wide, there are reasons to believe it will grow.
Pace is currently seeing fewer than 70% of the defensive snaps on his team. However, PFF ranks him as their 15th-best-graded LB for the entire season. His missed tackle rate is second lowest amongst Minnesota's starters and lowest amongst its linebackers. The Cincy alum is also first amongst the Purple People Eaters in pressure rate, is tied for third in defensive stops, and his pass rush win rate is nearly double that of any other Viking.
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