RADIO
As I write this, the thermostat outside reads -21°F. I don't mention this to brag about what an ironman I am, surviving the elements in a heated home situated at the center of a very cold suburban town… though I am. I say this to explain just how anus-chilling the weather is in the northwest right now. It's a filthy hand of discomfort that is seemingly clawing its way across the entire country right now.
According to CBS, there are eight NFL games this week that project for temperatures as low as 35°, and seven should be below freezing. We anticipate 10+ mile per hour winds in six of those games, and five should combine 20+ mph wind gusts with a chance of showers and freezing temperatures. What do these conditions mean for fantasy, though?
Snow alone can be helpful to an offense and hurtful to a defense. That said, CBS again helpfully deduced that every game since 2002 with a combination of freezing temperatures and 15+ mph winds have totaled just 37.5 total points per game. Only Denver’s games have averaged fewer total points this year. Now we have several games that forecast for these weather conditions this week. If that comes to fruition, you should fade the pass rushers and secondaries in those contests, as we expect very low pass volume in most.
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Games Where Weather Could Significantly Impact Your Defenders
Jaguars at Jets
The weather report is projecting an 80% chance of rain and high winds in this one, though the temperatures should be in the mid-40s. Players predict this game will be wet, muddy, and "gritty." That could significantly impact an offense like the Jaguars, the sixth most pass-heavy offense over the past three weeks, and the Jets' corners, who are perennial contributors in IDP.
Saints at Browns
The weather report on this one is particularly nasty. Meteorologists are projecting 12° temperatures with a -18° wind chill. They also forecast snow showers, 29 mph winds, and 63 mph wind gusts. What does this mean for you?
Well, you're obviously worried about starting any kickers or pass catchers in this contest, though tight ends could see an uptick in short-area usage. Regarding defense, you are fading everyone in the Browns' secondary outside of perhaps Grant Delpit. You could also consider fading Myles Garrett due to projected low volume, though it's hard to bench him. On the Saints' side, you're fading Cameron Jordan, Marcus Maye, and anyone not in the LB corps.
You're upgrading Pete Werner, Deion Jones, and Demario Davis in this one. You also like the interior defenders more than usual.
Bills at Bears
This one is looking to be nasty, as well. While it's fair to wonder how much this will impact Buffalo’s offensive tendencies, they typically throw a lot regardless of weather, things are looking risky for all involved. We are anticipating 20 mph winds, 32 mph wind gusts, and 9° temperatures, but the snow is projected to be done by Friday night.
For fantasy managers, it'll be hard sitting the passers and pass catchers in this one, given they are all elite assets who played a major role in your playoff appearance. Thus, it will be equally difficult to fade the pass rushers and secondary players in this one. Don’t be surprised if Buffalo continues to throw regardless of the weather, as the Bills threw 40 passes in less-than-ideal conditions last week. That would force Fields and company to throw as well.
In truth, we don’t advise benching anyone in this game that you wouldn’t normally. The matchups are just too good. We love Matt Milano and Gregory Rousseau, in particular.
Bengals at Patriots
Last but not least, the weather in Boston is also brewing in a concerning fashion. The forecast calls for 24° temperatures, 14 mph winds, 40 mph wind gusts, and a 40% chance of snow. Those conditions aren't the worst predicted for this weekend, but they aren't the best.
On the New England end, you aren't changing expectations for their offense. They will continue to be a run-first unit. In fact, they may run even more. Thus, you're elevating the Bengals' linebackers and interior defenders.
On the Cincinnati side, the wind is your most concerning factor for their offense. This pass-oriented unit originates from a cold and windy region, so they likely continue to throw in these conditions. However, if the winds hover over 15 mph, we could see Cincy return to its run-heavy approach from earlier in the season. That possibility makes it hard to confidently project Patriots defenders in this one, adding a boom-or-bust element that isn't usually there.
Casual IDP Streamers and Fades for This Week
Stream as a DL1: Gregory Rousseau, DL, Buffalo Bills
For all the reasons we correctly told you to stream Josh Sweat as a DL1 against the Bears last week, we are now telling you to do the same with Rousseau. Chicago has surrendered the fourth-most sacks in the NFL this season, and they offer the worst Adjusted Sack Rate. The Bears should be playing from behind against the Bills, too. While the weather is concerning, Justin Fields and co. likely will have no option other than to put the ball in his hands early and often.
Stream as an LB1: Pete Werner, LB, New Orleans Saints
Werner has disappointed fantasy managers in his past two games, though injuries have factored heavily into those stat sheets. In his return from injury last weekend, he saw his second-lowest snap rate of the year, and as a result, he totaled just four tackles despite a premium matchup. However, there is reason for optimism this week.
As we discussed before, the weather in Cleveland could be nasty. That should encourage the Browns to run more than they usually would… and they usually run the ball 32 times per game. Werner typically does most of his damage against the run, meaning he has an ideal opponent and scenario on tap. The hope here is his snaps return to their original rate, now that he’s had a week to acclimate from injury.
Fade: Taron Johnson, DB, Buffalo Bills
Johnson plays a vast majority of his snaps in the slot, but the Bears are averaging fewer than five targets per game to the slot since Darnell Mooney went down. They have had someone line up in the slot on 76% of their offensive snaps during that time, but less than half resulted in a route run.
To make matters worse, the Bears are the lowest-volume passing offense in the NFL and will be playing in poor conditions. While the Bears should be playing catchup in this game, many of their passing plays will end up as Justin Fields runs or throwaways. None of that helps Johnson, who may need a big play to pay off this weekend.
Premium Scoring & Deep League Streamers and Fades for This Week
Stream: Christian Harris, LB, Houston Texans
At this point, it is obvious that we start linebackers against the Titans. It also helps that Harris had a breakout game against the Chiefs last week, far outperforming his statistical averages since returning from injury. Harris is available in 97% of fantasy leagues and should offer a solid floor in deeper leagues this week.
Fade: A.J. Terrell, DB, Atlanta Falcons
It's currently unclear whether Lamar Jackson will play this week, but if he does, he could be limited. The Ravens also don't have a clear WR for Terrell to shadow or offer steady targets. Baltimore is the fifth-lowest volume pass attack in the NFL, and J.K. Dobbins' breakout hasn't helped that rate. The Falcons' corners should see incredibly low volume in a game that projects to have freezing temperatures and 14 mph winds.
Boom-or-Bust: New York Jets Pass Rushers & Secondary
As we said above, the forecast for this game is windy and wet. The last time the Jaguars played in conditions similar to this was in Week 4 against the Eagles, another good defense. Trevor Lawrence attempted just 23 passes in that game while surrendering one interception, four PDs, and four sacks. That was before Lawrence made a significant jump in play, though. Since then, the generational prospect has started living up to his pedigree.
Projecting Jets defenders in this one is difficult. Were the weather fair, we'd stream both Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed against the Jags' voluminous pass attack. Were Lawrence playing on the level he was in Week 4, we'd tell you to start all Jets, even in this bad weather. However, with bad weather and a better quarterback… it's a harder call.
My gut says the Jets’ pass defenders have a better chance of hitting their upside than not this week, but there’s obvious risk involved. While Lawrence has been sacked just three times in his past three games, starting tackle Cam Robinson is now out and the wet conditions could be rough on his backup. Meanwhile, the odds favor the Jags riding Lawrence’s hot streak and attempting at least 30 passes in this bad weather. That should offer big play opportunities for Gardner and Reed.
Defensive Tackles to Consider for This Week
D.J. Reader, DT, Cincinnati Bengals
Reader is a force on film, though he rarely dominates the box score. Reader can be dominant against the run when he’s on his game, and he’s an underrated pass rusher on the interior. This week he gets a Patriots offense that is running a balanced scheme that trends run-heavy in bad weather. Look for Reader to have a decent tackle floor and some pass rush upside in this one, making him a viable DT streamer in deeper formats.
Maliek Collins, DT, Houston Texans
The Titans' offensive line offers the fourth-worst Adjusted Sack Rate in the NFL and the lowest pass-blocking grade on PFF. They are surrendering 4.8 quarterback pressures per game up the middle while attempting double-digit rush attempts toward Collins’ side. Collins' ceiling is higher than usual in this matchup, making him a DT2 with upside.
Cornerbacks to Consider for This Week
Jaylon Johnson, CB, Chicago Bears
There was a time when Johnson was challenging for the NFL lead in PDs, before he struggled with a rash of injuries. Now, Johnson is back and lining up against a Bills offense averaging the sixth most pass attempts in the league.
As we've noted before, the weather could offer downside for everyone involved in this game. However, the Bills are a team that lives and dies by Josh Allen, and cold weather didn't slow them last week. We anticipate both Bears corners should see quality volume, with big play upside.
Fabian Moreau, CB, New York Giants
Moreau takes most of his snaps on the right side, while Justin Jefferson plays mostly on the left. Both players are mobile and switch sides, though. Moreau doesn't have to follow Jefferson to be fantasy viable in this one, though. The Vikings are averaging nearly 40 pass attempts per game and have lined T.J. Hockenson and K.J. Osborn out wide more often lately.
On paper, Moreau is a fine but unexciting option this week. However, the passing volume of Minnesota combined with the fact this is one of the only Week 16 contests without weather concerns helps. This week, knowing the weather conditions days in advance is a big boon to a player’s fantasy value.
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