Falcons vs. Panthers Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: D.J. Moore, Kyle Pitts, P.J. Walker, Marcus Mariota, D'Onta Foreman, Cordarrelle Patterson

November 9, 2022

Fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em and lineups advice for the Falcons v. Panthers Thursday Night game in Week 10 (2022). Ellis Johnson provides detailed player breakdowns and TNF matchup analysis.

Well, Week 9 happened. The NFL is officially upside down with Aaron Rodgers losing to Detroit, shirtless Kirk Cousins is jacked and wearing 10 chains, and Vegas has blown another 17-point lead. Somehow even the wildest NFL offseason predictions weren’t wild enough for this season.

This week, it's going to be a rainy one. Thursday is a rematch of two divisional opponents who went to overtime the last time they met. The Falcons are heading to Carolina to take on P.J. Walker and the Panthers. Let’s hope we see another 70-point shootout between these two.

Despite being relatively lackluster teams, there is plenty of fantasy firepower. From Kyle Pitts to D.J. Moore, these teams have been a rollercoaster for fantasy. Let me help guide you this week as I break down this matchup in this week's Thursday Night Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em article.

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers - 8:20 pm ET

Notable Injuries:

• Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR) - Ankle - Questionable
• A.J. Terrell (CB, ATL) - Hamstring - Questionable

Heavy rain is expected for this game as a result of the incoming hurricane. Therefore, the pass catchers are less enticing but I am still playing them as ranked in this article. The running backs should both receive a bump in rankings and should be started with confidence. 

Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

D.J. Moore (WR, CAR)

Moore’s fantasy managers probably celebrated when the report came out that Walker was still the starter. At least I know I did. Despite Walker’s miserable performance against the Bengals, he has been the one bright spot for D.J. Moore’s production. 

With 27 targets in his last three matches, Moore is too talented to not produce for fantasy. Plus, he gets to face the defense that is allowing the second most fantasy points and yards to opposing WRs. The Falcons are also allowing the most receptions to the position, making this the perfect matchup for a player like Moore. Expect a bounce-back week, as he is a fringe WR1 in this matchup. 

Cordarrelle Patterson (RB, ATL)

You have to love Patterson. After breaking out improbably at the age of 30, he has brought life to this Falcons organization. Last week, he returned from injury and came up big with two touchdowns. Although multiple backs were used, Patterson received all of the red zone work and the bulk of the carries.

I suspect that this usage may have been a way to ease him back from injury, making his upside even higher for this week. The Panthers allow the third-most fantasy points to the RB position, as well as the fifth-most rushing yards and sixth-most TDs. Patterson is a fantastic play this week and should flirt with RB1 numbers. 

D'Onta Foreman (RB, CAR)

Speaking of excellent comeback stories, Foreman has yet again proved to be the only one to overcome an Achilles tear. Last week was a write-off for the Panthers, but in each of the two weeks prior, he had 118 rushing yards and a combined three touchdowns.

The Falcons are mediocre against the run and allow nearly a rushing TD a game to the RB position. If Foreman can get this offense moving and open up the passing game, he’ll have multiple chances to punch one in. He’s a solid RB2 play this week, and I’m calling for the Pie Shop to be open for the veteran back. 

*Pie Shop: An Australian term (often used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week. (Season Calls: 4-5)

Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)

Finally, we’re starting to see this offense incorporate Pitts. Although this only amounted to two catches for 27 yards last week, it is encouraging. Over the last two weeks, Pitts has 35% of his season targets and 38% of his season yards. 

However, this production primarily came from Week 8 where he went for 80 yards and a TD. Thankfully, we’re in luck because that was also against the Panthers, who could not stop him. Although the Panthers have been decent against TEs, the Falcons don’t have the weapons to not involve Pitts. Ultimately, the stage is set for Pitts to be a top-five option at the position, with the upside of being a unicorn.

Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Marcus Mariota (QB, ATL)

One of the scariest plays at the position has to be Mariota. It’s hard playing a QB who has only had more than 15 completions three times this season. Thankfully, he’s good for five plus rushing attempts per game and 30 or more yards on the ground. This makes his floor relatively safe for a Superflex QB2 option.

The Panthers have been surprisingly good against opposing passing attacks this year. Although they are definitely not elite, they have allowed the 11th-most passing yards per game and are tied for the 16th-most passing touchdowns per game. Despite this middling matchup for Mariota, I am sure the Falcons' defense will force Mariota into a game script where he needs to pass. As a result, he is a mid-tier QB2, and I’d play him over players like Jared Goff and Jacoby Brissett.

Flex Considerations for Fantasy Football Lineups

P.J. Walker (QB, CAR)

You bet your boots I played Walker last week in my Superflex dynasty league and had to eat a fat -3 fantasy points from him. But that’s in the past, Walker has been named the starter once again for this glorious matchup. 

The Falcons love to give up fantasy points to the QB position. They give up the sixth-most fantasy points, the most passing yards, and seventh-most passing TDs to opposing QBs. Walker had his best fantasy week against them in Week 8 and should have a solid performance once again. I don’t view him as that different from Mariota in this one and don’t mind him as a QB2, bye-week filler.

Terrace Marshall Jr. (WR, CAR)

I never would have thought this would be a name I’d consider flexing in 2022. However, he is one game away from NBA Jam catching fire. That’s right, he has 15 targets, 140 yards, and a TD over his last two games. It’s definitely a risky play, but in this excellent matchup, you can desperately look his way. I’d take the shot on him this week over underperforming names such as Allen Robinson and Alec Pierce.

Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups

Drake London (WR, ATL)

Before the news of the rain, I had London as a desperation flex play. Still, I believe brighter days are ahead for the young athlete. It’s been a relatively miserable season for the highly drafted rookie. However, he has shown enough glimpses of his ability to make me confident he’ll become a very good WR in this league with a functional QB. 

Unfortunately, that QB isn’t coming to save him this year. This is a shame because if I told you he had 12 targets and seven receptions over his last two games, you might have some optimism. However, this production only led to 54 yards and zero touchdowns. The targets are there for future optimism, but I would try to avoid playing him in this one. 

Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR)

Out of the small town of Saint Albert, Alberta, Canada, Hubbard has an outstanding story. In fact, one of my friends who I play fantasy with raced track against him (and got absolutely torched). Despite my love for Hubbard’s backstory, he’s definitely a “sit” this week. 

Potentially returning from injury for this game, he’ll be in a firm timeshare with the aforementioned Foreman. Plus, with Foreman’s recent success on the ground, I can’t see Hubbard getting solid volume this week. Although he possesses the explosiveness to break a big play, it’s a big ask for Week 10.

Tyler Allgeier (RB, ATL)

Well, it was fun while it lasted. Allgeier and Caleb Huntley managed to propel one of the league's most surprising ground attacks over the last few weeks. Even last week, Allgeier rumbled for 123 total yards against the Chargers. However, despite this explosive production, I think Patterson will continue to see an increase in usage over the next few weeks.

This Falcons offense isn’t strong enough to warrant playing multiple RBs, especially when Patterson seems to be the red zone guy. In the end, I’d look to avoid playing Allgeier in this matchup, but he is a last-ditch desperation play if you need it. 

Caleb Huntley (RB, ATL)

Huntley’s seven carries last week are a sign that his days are numbered. My list of who I’d rather start over him this week includes running back Ben Roethlisberger, Eddie Lacy, and 22 Jump Street track star, Jonah Hill. 

Honorable Mentions: Tommy Tremble, Olamide Zaccheaus, Damiere Byrd

Ellis’ Picks

Falcons -3.0 (3-6), Over 40.5 (3-6)

Career Thursday Night record: Spread (25-20), Over/Under (24-21)

Last week, we missed both the spread and the over/under by one point. Tough. Just when I thought my picks couldn’t trend with the weather, winter came and made my picks ice cold. But hey, history has shown that regression to the mean should be coming, and I’m feeling pretty good about this matchup in Week 10.

My favorite pick here is by far the over-under. This Falcons defense is an absolute delight to pick, and I have some illogical belief that P.J. Walker will be able to move this offense on Thursday. I expect both teams to be forced to keep up with one another right from the opening kickoff, making me love the rapidly decreasing 40.5 points over/under.

As for the spread, these divisional games are always tough. This game went right to the wire the last time these two teams met, and I expect this week may not be different. Despite picking the Panthers and the plus points last time, I think the Falcons are somehow just the better team here. So give me the better team with the added confidence of a full-field goal spread.

Thanks again for starting your week with my analysis. I’ll catch you next week when the lost Packers take on the surprisingly successful AFC-contending Titans.

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