IDP Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 8

October 26, 2022

Chris Gregory gives his IDP rankings and the top streamers to start along with defensive players to sit for Week 8 of the 2022 fantasy football season.

Arguably the biggest change during the 2022 NFL season so far is the decline in quarterback production. Chief amongst the disappointments are Hall of Famers Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, who have taken major steps back in production. Their passing yards and touchdowns are way down, as are their win totals. That decline in production obviously hurts their teams' chances of winning, just as it does the odds for their fantasy teams… but could this decline in play also help those looking for IDP streamers?

A deeper look at the IDP relevant statistics suggests managers should still avoid streaming DLs and DBs against Brady, despite his decline in production. While the GOAT is on pace to commit more fumbles this year than in his two previous years with Tampa, he’s actually tracking to commit fewer turnovers overall. His Bad Throw percentage is also better than in previous years, while his sack and pressure rates are surprisingly steady. In fact, there isn’t a single statistic that suggests Brady is a quality matchup for fantasy defenders.

As for Rodgers, it is worth noting his turnover rate is up in 2022. He’s on pace to commit 14 turnovers this year after giving away 11 in the previous two combined. However, Rodgers’ Bad Throw percentage, pressure rate, and sack percentage are all down from last year, as is his volume. The data also suggests Rodgers is due to slow his turnover pace in the second half of the season, which means you should think twice about streaming defenders against him as well... With that, let’s get to our IDP rankings!

Top Fantasy Defensive Linemen of the Week

DL Gamble(s) of the Week: Arik Armstead, San Francisco 49ers

It'll be a gamble just adding Armstead, given how often he's been rumored to return only to be out another week. Initial reports are the 49ers do expect their top interior pass rusher to return in Week 8, though. Most should consider starting him, even with a snap count possibly looming if he plays.

The Rams' interior offensive line is one of the worst in the game, allowing 50 quarterback pressures in six games. They are currently on their third-string center and backup left tackle as well. LA is a premium matchup for San Francisco pass rushers, and Armstead could be the best value amongst them this week.

DL Fold(s) of the Week: Preston Smith, Green Bay Packers

Despite being the seventh most pass-happy offense in the NFL, the Bills have surrendered the fewest sacks and have the third-best Adjusted Sack Rate. Those numbers are almost entirely thanks to Josh Allen’s mobility and power, as he’s arguably the hardest QB to bring down in the NFL. Despite his line giving up more than 10 pressures per game, Allen is brought down less than once per contest. We are fading Rashan Gary this week, and dropping Smith off our board altogether.

Top Fantasy Linebackers of the Week

LB Gamble(s) of the Week: Jamin Davis, Washington Commanders

Davis has yet to collect more than six total tackles in a game, which is concerning for those who play in a Casual IDP format. However, he has remained on our radar thanks to his potential for sacks, as he regularly rushes the passer. This week could be a perfect time to roll the dice on Davis getting one of those sacks and possibly more tackles than usual.

The Colts are starting Sam Ehlinger at QB, who lacks pedigree and experience. The former Longhorn does offer mobility, but he's played in just three NFL games. Sunday will mark both the first start and first regular season throw of his career. Given his profile as a relatively mobile but limited passer, we can expect the Colts to protect him by returning to their run-heavy ways. We can also expect several broken plays, some sacks behind a bad offensive line, and a fumble.

LB Fold(s) of the Week: Josh Bynes, Baltimore Ravens

Tampa Bay's offense attempts the second-fewest rush attempts per game in the NFL. While the Bucs send 59.7% of their throws to the intermediate area where linebackers roam, over half of those targets go to the slot, where Bynes has lined up just seven times this year. Worse, coverage isn't Bynes' strong suit, and it's an area where Patrick Queen usually takes the lead.

While this matchup isn’t deadly for Bynes’ fantasy value, we are concerned about how inactive he is in coverage and the low opportunity share he should see. Given Tampa's pass-heavy script and the fact that Damarion Williams is likely to get most of the Chris Godwin slot targets, the floor and ceiling both feel low for Bynes this week.

Top Fantasy Defensive Backs of the Week

DB Gamble(s) of the Week: James Bradberry & Darius Slay, Philadelphia Eagles

In games Kenny Pickett has played from behind, the whopping two he's played, the Pitt star has thrown an average of 48 passes. No team attempts more passes per game than that. We anticipate Pickett will be playing from behind against an Eagles team dominating their schedule and remaining healthy while doing so.

In Pickett's four games of NFL experience, he's thrown seven interceptions and has sent 57% of his passes to the boundaries. Both of those statistics are positive for the Eagles' corners. While Picket has shown flashes so far, he will force throws and try to make things happen when the Steelers are down. That should be the case again this week, meaning both Bradberry and Slay are viable big-play gambles this week.

DB Fold(s) of the Week: Patrick Surtain II, Denver Broncos

The Jaguars sit right in the middle of the NFL in terms of pass attempts per game (18^th overall). Their top pass catcher lines up in the slot 78% of the time. Their #3 target is Evan Engram, who sets up in-line or in the slot 92% of the time. Surtain II has taken just 18 snaps on the interior over two seasons as a pro.

With the Jaguars finding life in their run game thanks to Travis Etienne, expect Doug Pederson’s staff to call a balanced game. Since two of their top three pass-catchers line up away from Surtain, that balanced game plan and the direction of Trevor Lawrence’s passes should both count against Denver’s elite corner. We are fading him accordingly.

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