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Now that all of the real baseball trades are in the books, it's time to assess who won and who lost. In this author's estimation, the Mariners won by acquiring the big pitcher they needed in Luis Castillo, hopefully ending the longest postseason drought in North American sports. The Padres are being credited as a "super team" in the national media, but they went all-in on a roster that's only in playoff position due to the third wild card.
Head-scratchers also abound, like the Rockies having a pizza party instead of trying to be productive and the Brewers giving up Josh Hader and DFAing Dinelson Lamet less than 24 hours later. One of the most puzzling performances had to be the Yankees, who acquired All-Star Andrew Benintendi and effectively traded Jordan Montgomery for Frankie Montas, leaving their rotation a little short.
As fantasy managers, we also have to consider how real moves will impact each player's fantasy value. The knee-jerk reaction for Benintendi is probably that the trade was positive since he's joining a much better lineup in a more favorable hitter's environment, but regression to the mean and a reduced role could have the opposite impact. Let's talk about it.
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Was Andrew Benintendi a Deserving All-Star?
Benintendi's triple-slash line of .305/.380/.382 is nice, but the batting average is pretty empty with just three homers and six steals on the season. MLB rules dictate that every team needs an All-Star representative, however, and Whit Merrifield got off to a miserable start while the team's committee approach to the ninth inning meant that they couldn't just tab the closer like they usually do.
Benintendi was the team's All-Star by default, but a peek at his underlying numbers reveals that he isn't even as good as his middling numbers suggest. His .352 BABIP is fueled by hitting .333 on grounders against a career mark of .264. His average exit velocity on grounders is up slightly, from 86.1 mph to 83.8 in 2021, but that alone doesn't explain the spike.
Similarly, Benintendi's liners are finding paydirt more often than they usually do with a .750 BABIP against a career mark of .690. His contact quality metrics don't support this at all. His 91.7 mph average airborne exit velocity is more than two full ticks below his 93.9 mark from a season ago, while his rate of Brls/BBE of 4.4% is roughly half of 2021's 8.9% figure.
Benintendi's plate discipline has helped him make the most of his inflated BABIP, but that too looks like a mirage. His 14 K% is backed by a SwStr% that improved from 10.6% last year to 8.4% this, but nearly all of his gains are on pitches outside of the zone. While his O-Contact% went from 71.8 to 76.4, his Z-Contact% only improved from 84.3 to 85.1.
Benintendi's eye has also improved with a 27.3% chase rate, but considering his career rate is 30.2% it was never a huge weakness for him. Meanwhile, his walks are likely to decline from his current 11 BB% since pitchers will look at his 2.9% HR/FB and just throw him a cookie.
All told, Baseball Savant says that Benintendi deserves a .271 average with a slightly higher slugging percentage of .390, numbers that don't warrant a starting spot on fantasy rosters or the New York Yankees. His 27.4 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed is just above average, but not by enough to change his xBA projection.
How Will Pinstripes Impact Andrew Benintendi?
The lazy way of doing this analysis is to just compare park factors, and Baseball Savant tells us that Yankee Stadium's 117 HR factor is indeed substantially higher than Kauffman Stadium's 78 HR factor from 2020 to 2022. However, Benintendi doesn't have the oomph to hit many out of any stadium.
Meanwhile, Kauffman's 110 hits factor is much higher than Yankee Stadium's 96 hits factor, meaning that the move is probably going to cost Benintendi a few more singles than regression alone would have. Kauffman is also the more favorable run-scoring environment overall with a 102 park factor (sixth in MLB) to Yankee Stadium's 99 (17th), so it's a bad switch for a guy who doesn't offer much power.
Of course, park factors don't tell the whole story. While Benintendi was cemented as the second or third hitter in Kansas City's lineup, he's generally hitting fifth or sixth for the Yankees. The lost PAs mean that his batting average will have less impact on fantasy squads, while he'll also see fewer opportunities to pad his R+RBI totals.
Benintendi has enjoyed success on the bases this year by going six-for-eight on SB attempts, but that probably won't continue. He went 8-for-17 on the bases last year, probably earning a red light from the analytical Yanks and their power-heavy lineup.
Finally, it's not hard to argue that the best possible Yankees lineup doesn't have room for Benintendi. Acquiring Harrison Bader suggests that Judge is heading for an outfield corner, with Giancarlo Stanton and Matt Carpenter accounting for the other corner and DH. Carpenter could play a corner infield spot, but the team needs Josh Donaldson's glove at third and Anthony Rizzo isn't sitting. Forcing Benintendi into the picture probably means Carpenter at second base full-time.
The Verdict on Andrew Benintendi
Benintendi may have been named an All-Star, but he doesn't offer fantasy managers much power or speed and his batting average appears due for major regression. He could also lose everyday playing time before the season's close if everyone around him gets healthy, and yet he's rostered in 80% of Yahoo! leagues. It says here to trade him while the prevailing wisdom is that becoming a Yankee is a good thing for this Chump.
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