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“Sleeper” has become a tricky word to use when describing a player for fantasy football in 2022.
There are so many meanings of the word these days that it is hard to decipher what a sleeper truly is. Green Bay Packers tight end Robert Tonyan fits the bill pretty perfectly for me. Coming in at an average draft position of 176 overall is qualification enough to be called a sleeper.
What makes him this even more so is the fact that you probably haven’t heard his name mentioned a single time when referencing the Packers pass catchers for 2022.
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The Argument for Robert Tonyan as a Value Pick in 2022
It’s easy to forget about basically any tight end going in the double-digit rounds. Even easier to forget someone coming off of a season-ending knee injury, but recent reports have indicated he should be ready to go for the regular season. Aside from availability, opportunity reigns supreme in fantasy football.
The Packers will go into this season with a 43.5% available target share, good for the 5th most vacated targets in the NFL coming into 2022. I bet you could guess who most of those vacated targets are coming from. You nailed it, 169 targets and 11 touchdowns need to be replaced thanks to one player alone, superstar wide receiver Davante Adams.
Sounds like someone only a year removed from finishing as the TE4 while recording 11 touchdowns in a season would be a solid option to replace some of this lost production. Especially when the team did not add anyone at the position.
Most deep receiving TDs last season (TEs)
Robert Tonyan - 4pic.twitter.com/5e7SmRomNm
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) April 14, 2021
To go along with the large percentage of targets lost, and further illustrate the necessity for another trusted option in this offense, looking at available air yards is one of my favorite indicators of what actual role is needed from a pass-catching group to mirror previous success.
In addition to losing Davante Adams, the loss of Marquez Valdes-Scantling also leaves a large hole in opening up the play calling with a downfield threat. This is responsible for a large portion of this next metric. The Packers need to address 2,807 available air yards this offseason. That is good for a 62.8% loss from 2021, the 3rd highest in the NFL. Indicating a huge offensive turnover.
These numbers certainly seem like wide receiver statistics, and they can be, but as you can see in the video clip above, Robert Tonyan was used similarly during his breakout season in 2020. The tight end averaged a solid 8.8 average depth of target in 2021. This is more than Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, and Deebo Samuel. His top-five tight end finish did not come on the back of reception totals, it was due to compiled yardage and touchdowns thanks to downfield throws.
The above table shows the data and NFL teams that have this level of production they are tasked to replace in 2022. This offseason, Green Bay brought in soon-to-be 30-year-old Sammy Watkins and two rookies at the wide receiver position. While some have high hopes for the Packers' second-round rookie Christian Watson, this was not an overwhelming investment to replace the available targets and air yards referenced previously.
Lack of familiarity and trust is going to be important for an offense that relies on timing, and of course, one that is quarterbacked by Aaron Rodgers. These new additions will need to earn trust and targets from the MVP. Until then, I expect Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan to emerge as primary targets and play a large role between the 20s and in the red zone.
Cost vs. Reward
When looking a little deeper at Tonyan’s draft position, you can’t help but notice he is currently going two picks behind the first kicker off the board, Justin Tucker. Sitting in the middle of round 13, as the 19th tight end in overall ADP (Average Draft Position). The draft risk is minimal to non-existent compared to the potential reward.
When looking at the list below of tight ends going in this range, you see players with murkier paths to success and fantasy relevance, along with not nearly as much upside within their respective offenses. The 2020 breakout season for Tonyan came on 59 total targets, equaling just an 11.8 target share. The TE8 in 2021 was Dawson Knox, finishing with a stat line of 49-587-9.
Tonyan exceeded each of those numbers in the aforementioned season with the Packers having their full complement of weapons available. The overall ADP and positional draft range both provide a clear opportunity to turn a near-zero opportunity cost into a top-10 tight end return.
Conclusion
Now might be the moment when you realize this is the first time you have thought of the name Robert Tonyan in months. Maybe that is what a “sleeper” truly is in fantasy football. Let’s go with this – someone not quite on your radar, who costs minimal to zero draft capital, and has a clear path to success and value to your roster. Sounds good to me.
A top target in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense, going in the range where your league-mates are thinking about kickers and defenses, sounds even better.
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