Christian Watson NFL Rookie Profile - Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook

May 18, 2022

Dessy John's fantasy football rookie analysis for Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson. Is this NFL rookie WR a 2022 fantasy football draft sleeper?

With an incredibly promising group of pass-catchers entering the NFL Draft, one of the most intriguing selections in terms of situation and opportunity came in Round 2. With the second pick of the second round (pick No. 34 overall), the Green Bay Packers selected wide receiver Christian Watson out of North Dakota State.

Watson flew under the radar due to the combination of playing at a smaller school and being a late bloomer, but he gained national attention after a blistering performance at the NFL Combine. He has an extremely high-pressure situation to step into, with Green Bay losing superstar Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to the Kansas City Chiefs. Watson is expected to earn a starting role sooner rather than later, with returning wide receiver Allen Lazard and new addition Sammy Watkins the only real competition in the pecking order.

The Packers have been rumored to add another veteran receiver before the season starts, but as of now, it appears to be trial by fire for Watson.

Christian Watson College Production 

A four-year player at NDSU, Watson’s production improved outside of a COVID-shortened 2020, but certainly did not jump off the page. Part of what makes Watson feel like an unfinished product is that the scheme at NDSU was extremely run-heavy and simply did not generate many opportunities through the air. Watson only averaged 181 routes run per year for a total of 726 over his collegiate career. This resulted in a grand total of only 104 receptions over four seasons. For reference, that is exactly the reception total that Wan’Dale Robinson (taken nine selections later at pick No. 43 by the New York Giants) had last year alone with the Kentucky Wildcats.

Christian Watson Impresses At The Combine

Watson emerged from the combine as easily the most all-around athletic wide receiver in the class. At 6’4 and 208 pounds, he officially ran a scorching 4.36 40-yard-dash. His full official measurements are below.

In case there is any skepticism about the precision of 40-yard-dash times, Watson's speed jumps off the screen on tape as well...

Christian Watson's Areas For Development

In spite of the off-the-charts athleticism, Watson is consistently viewed as being raw. This is especially concerning for a 23-year-old from a small school, signaling both a limited upside and a lack of readiness for NFL competition. These concerns could be eased if he showed the game skills to match his athleticism, but there are a few red flags there as well.

He profiles disproportionately as an outside receiver with very low slot usage. According to Pro Football Focus, the impressive YPRR he logged was skewed heavily by go routes downfield, leaving much to be desired from a versatility standpoint. Whether his linear route tree was due to an unrefined skill set or simply because his collegiate coaching staff preferred a vertical mismatch on the outside is unclear, but certainly poses some doubt for his prospects in the NFL. Watson also had a few issues with dropped passes as well as a surprising inability to break tackles considering his measurements and opposition.

Establish The Run succinctly summarizes Watson’s upside and concerns, and why they make him difficult to rank…

Can Christian Watson go from North Dakota State to a reliable target for Aaron Rodgers immediately? pic.twitter.com/2Cyj0zoKf2

— Establish The Run (@EstablishTheRun) May 10, 2022

Christian Watson's Fit In Green Bay

Watson has a clearer path to starting in Week 1 than any rookie wide receiver not selected in the first round. He is also one of only two highly drafted wide receivers to be paired with an elite quarterback (Skyy Moore with Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City). The big question mark with Watson is that he may have a difficult time leaning on his athleticism to mask his underdeveloped skill set as a receiver. This is especially concerning when being paired with Rodgers, who demands precision from his pass-catchers (and as a result has often favored his veterans). In many ways, Watson draws a close parallel to one of the receivers he is replacing in Valdes-Scantling, who never seemed to gain traction in head coach Matt LaFleur’s offense. 

The opportunity is really what piques the interest of fantasy managers. The departures of Adams, Valdes-Scantling, and Equanimeous St. Brown free up 241 targets, 158 receptions, 2,081 yards, and 14 touchdowns from last year. That is massive production with very few options in Green Bay to replace it. Obviously, Adams made up the lion’s share of this production, making a significant portion unlikely to be replaced at all by Watson or anyone else on the roster. However, Watson will get his shot, and that means a lot in fantasy.

Christian Watson Fantasy Football Outlook

Watson’s athleticism and opportunity to have a secure snap share with an elite quarterback give him significant upside, but his learning curve is likely to make for inconsistency and frustration for fantasy managers. This makes him far more interesting in Best-Ball formats than in redraft leagues.

Watson is being drafted with a post-NFL Draft ADP fluctuating around 121 (WR50), roughly four spots ahead of teammate Allen Lazard, who has a more solidified role in the offense. For reference, the WR50 last year in PPR scoring was Elijah Moore of the New York Jets, with a receiving stat line of 43-538-5. Though Watson’s hype has seemed high, this is an appropriate value and an attainable stat line considering who will be throwing him the football. However, it also highlights that Lazard is probably the better value at his price tag. 

In spite of the concerns around Watson’s development, Green Bay selected him early in the second round for a reason, and the absence of Adams may make them feel like they need to reconstruct the physical mismatch that Adams brought to the offense every week. Watson also presents more intrigue in dynasty leagues, provided Rodgers still has two or three more years in a Packers uniform. 

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