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Justin's positive and negative TD regression candidates for fantasy football quarterbacks. His projections for touchdown risers and fallers for QBs to find draft sleepers and busts.
Passing touchdowns tend to be a stat that's all over the place. Even the elite quarterbacks go up and down in touchdowns. Patrick Mahomes threw 41 in 2022, then dropped down to 27 in 2023 despite playing in just one fewer game.
Looking at last season's numbers, several players will see their touchdowns rise or fall dramatically in 2025. Identifying those players before your fantasy draft can be a huge plus in your quest to win a fantasy title.
Here are three positive and three negative touchdown regression candidates among quarterbacks heading into 2025.
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Positive: Drake Maye - New England Patriots
As a rookie, Drake Maye threw 15 touchdown passes while starting 12 games. He did that despite the Patriots having what essentially amounted to nothing at wide receiver.
Seriously. Last year's top wideout was DeMario Douglas, who caught 66 passes for 621 yards and three touchdowns. Kayshon Boutte also added three touchdown passes. The two tied with Austin Hooper for the team lead in the category.
Why will Maye have better touchdown numbers this year? New England invested pretty heavily in the wide receiver position, signing Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins while also drafting Kyle Williams in the third round.
I wouldn't call wide receiver a strength for this team, but it's an improved position from 2024. The team still has Hunter Henry and Hooper at tight end and added a very skilled receiving back in rookie TreVeyon Henderson, leading to a clear conclusion: New England's passing attack will be better.
"Better" might not mean "good" yet, but it should mean Maye can push the ball into the end zone more consistently. Barring injury, he should throw at least 20 touchdowns.
Negative: Sam Darnold - Seattle Seahawks
2024 was a breakout year for Sam Darnold, but how much of that was a product of playing for the Minnesota Vikings?
Sam Darnold is heading to Seattle, but is he really an improvement over Geno Smith? Is there some risk Darnold will face some regression?
“Man, I've squinted to see the logic over the last couple of days, right?…I’m not saying Geno was innocent by any means, but I'm saying this… pic.twitter.com/dDnawn3Itp
— GoJo and Golic (@GoJoandGolic) March 11, 2025
We'll find out this season, as Darnold is off to Seattle, where he replaces Geno Smith. Smith was 13th in the NFL in touchdown passes with 21 last season, while Darnold was fifth in the league with 35.
While Darnold will be playing with one of the league's most intriguing young receivers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, there's no reason to think he approaches last year's touchdown mark. That's not meant as an insult to Darnold. It's just how the Seattle offense differs from the Minnesota offense.
Seattle threw the ball more than Minnesota last year overall, but not in the red zone. Darnold ranked third among NFL quarterbacks in red-zone attempts at 93, which he turned into 26 touchdown passes. Inside the 10-yard line, he was tied for third with 48 attempts, which is where 20 of his touchdowns came from.
As for Seattle, Smith ranked 20th in red-zone attempts and was tied for 17th in pass attempts inside the 10. Simply put, Minnesota leaned on its passing game in these important situations. Seattle leaned on its run game.
Working under the assumption that changes in 2025, where are Darnold's touchdowns going to come from? He threw the same number of touchdowns from inside the 20 as Smith attempted at all inside the 10. That's not a perfect comparison, but it still shows that Darnold likely won't have the ball in his hands in these situations.
Positive: Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Jaguars
Injury contributed some to Trevor Lawrence throwing just 11 touchdowns last season, but even over the 10-game sample we saw from Lawrence, that number stands out as very low.
The former No. 1 overall pick averaged 1.1 touchdown passes per game. Compare that to 2023, when he averaged 1.3 per game, or 2022, when he was at 1.5, and you can see that it's a drop from where he's usually at, though not a huge one.
Honestly, Lawrence just hasn't found the end zone like expected in the NFL, and it's started to feel like the "can't miss" prospect is missing. Dare we call Lawrence a bust?
Trevor Lawrence the last 4 Weeks:
87/121 (71.9%)
1106 YDS (277 YPG)
7 TDs, 3 INT
109.0 NFL
pic.twitter.com/Wjt1F9w7mB— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) October 27, 2024
Anyway, that's a different conversation. This conversation is just about whether his touchdown numbers improve in 2025. Brian Thomas Jr. looks like a true No. 1 receiver, and the addition of Travis Hunter will be a huge help for this passing attack, so there are plenty of reasons to think better times are ahead for Lawrence.
Negative: Bo Nix - Denver Broncos
As a rookie, Bo Nix finished sixth in the NFL in passing touchdowns, throwing 29 of them. As he heads into his second NFL season, a bit of regression should be expected.
That's not to say what Nix did as a rookie was an anomaly. He belongs in the NFL as a starting quarterback. It's simply that a great rookie season can often be followed by a weaker second year as defenses figure out how to stop a player. Nix will adjust and go on to have plenty of future great seasons, but 2025 might just be a bit disappointing.
We saw it out of C.J. Stroud last year. After lighting the world on fire as a rookie, Stroud threw fewer touchdowns in 2024 despite playing two more games. Things just didn't quite work out as expected.
Denver also didn't invest at wide receiver. The addition of tight end Evan Engram is nice, but the team's No. 2 and No. 3 receivers are still Marvin Mims Jr. and Devaughn Vele, respectively. The thinness of this receiving corps will make it harder to repeat last year's scoring numbers.
Positive: Bryce Young - Carolina Panthers
After being benched early in the year, Bryce Young regained his starting role following Andy Dalton's car accident and never relinquished it again. He stepped up well enough to earn him the starting job again in 2025 and quell a lot of the bust conversation.
Bryce Young’s improvement throughout 2024 pic.twitter.com/VgfHCdYa6q
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) June 26, 2025
Despite his improvement, Young had just 15 passing touchdowns overall last year. A key part of that low number was that the Panthers lacked playmakers at wide receiver, but the addition of Tetairoa McMillan in the first round of the NFL Draft might change that.
You know what else will improve Young's passing numbers? Not missing five starts because he got benched. Barring a complete meltdown out of the former No. 1 overall pick, a healthy Young should be expected to play 17 games this year. That alone should push him over the 20-touchdown mark.
Negative: Baker Mayfield - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have given Baker Mayfield a really good group of receivers, but the two most important ones, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, are veterans who are starting to get to that point.
You know what I'm talking about. No player is great forever. Godwin was limited to just seven games last year, and Evans may have had his 11th consecutive 1,000-yard season, but he just barely snuck across that line while missing three games.
Add in that Tampa needs to lean on Bucky Irving more, and it's hard to see Mayfield hitting 41 touchdowns again, especially considering his career high before 2024 was only 28 touchdown passes.
Mayfield's previous best mark was in 2023, his first year with the Bucs. That season, he threw 28 touchdown passes, connecting for a score on 4.9 percent of his overall throws. His highest touchdown rate came in his rookie year, when he found the end zone on 5.6 percent of throws.
Last year, that number jumped all the way to 7.2 percent. Maybe some of this improvement is sustainable, but Mayfield is probably going to top out around 35 touchdown passes most years going forward, not last year's 41.
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