RADIO
Another week is in the books as we creep closer to the playoff weeks. As the bye weeks accumulate in the rearview mirror, we can shift our focus to padding out depth with handcuffs and defense duos. As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).
As a caveat, these prices do not indicate how much these free-agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player, but we've now added different categories of bids to reflect team-need situations.
Week 10 was an awful bye week to endure but this weekend will be easier on the stomach. We'll be without the Colts, Falcons, Patriots, and Saints this time around. Here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 11.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR) - 41% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 4-5%
Sean McVay says that Stafford is expected to start in Week 11, so the bye week seems to have helped his thumb injury. We’ve never seen pain tolerance be a question for Stafford, so it’s a question of grip strength.
Let’s hope he avoids any setbacks and can step in as a high-end QB2 stream against a Seattle defense that ceded over 300 yards and three scores to Sam Howell. Stafford hasn’t thrown for over 235 yards since Week 4, but his season-high mark of 334 came back in Week 1 at Seattle without Cooper Kupp. Hope springs eternal!
Jordan Love (QB, GB) - 43% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 4-5%
If you have Joshua Dobbs available then he’s your No. 1 QB waiver target, but he’s 53% rostered on Yahoo. Love had that awful three-interception game ahead of Green Bay’s Week 6 bye, but he’s thrown multiple touchdowns in 2-of-4 games since.
Most importantly, Love’s Week 11 opponent is the Chargers, a bottom-five defense at suppressing quarterbacks. The Packers have two reliable RBs, a sturdy WR trio, and an exciting rookie TE for Love to lean on.
Aaron Rodgers (QB, NYJ) - 16% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 2-3%
I can’t believe I’m writing this but medical advancements and the will to win have Rodgers floating a mid-December return. With no low-rostered QB in a strong streaming environment, I’ll ensure you have this on your radar.
If the Jets are still in the playoff hunt come December then Rodgers could attempt the improbable with plus matchups in Week 15 (at MIA) and 16 (vs. WAS). Just make other championship plans as the Jets face Cleveland!
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Keaton Mitchell (RB, BAL) - 47% rostered
FAAB Bid: 25-30%
Aggressive Bid: 30-50%
Desperation Bid: 50-75%
Mitchell only had four touches but turned that into 66 total yards and a touchdown despite a horrible Cleveland matchup. Juxtapose that with plodding Gus Edwards grinding out 28 yards on 12 touches and Justice Hill barely seeing the ball and Mitchell remains a strong add.
The rookie had a mid-week hamstring injury crop up and was likely lifted after a strong first quarter due to it. (That doesn't appear to be the case.) Still, the handful of first-quarter touches produced greatness. He does appear to mirror De'Von Achane’s burst even if his frame isn’t as big.
Mitchell will need to break one to make value in any given week and isn’t likely to get there on volume, but Baltimore’s appetite for rushing the ball and Mitchell’s per-touch ceiling is a must-add. They face Cincinnati on a short week here before a nice LAC matchup in Week 12. Do mind their Week 13 bye if you’re in “I have to win every game” territory.
Ty Chandler (RB, MIN) - 8% rostered
FAAB Bid: 15-20%
Aggressive Bid: 20-30%
Desperation Bid: 30-40%
Cam Akers’ season-ending Achilles tear did not lead to a workhorse role for Alexander Mattison in Week 10. Chandler and Mattison were operating around a 50/50 split before Mattison exited with a concussion, and Chandler’s rushing TD came in the second quarter before the injury.
It is rare for a player to clear concussion protocol within a week and Mattison could miss through the team’s Week 13 bye. Chandler is unlikely to become a 25-touch monster but Minnesota also has a stellar pair of matchups in Denver and Chicago over the next two weeks. This elevates Chandler into a prime add for those in win-now mode.
Zach Charbonnet (RB, SEA) - 45% rostered
FAAB Bid: 6-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-20%
Kenneth Walker III regained his alpha role, securing 20 touches to Charbonnet’s 10 in the 29-26 victory over Washington. KW3 would push for 63 rushing yards on 19 carries, with a 64-yard TD coming on a dumpoff. Charbonnet had a zesty 6-44-0 rushing line and 18 more yards on four catches.
The versatile usage in the passing game remains encouraging even if a healthy Walker demands the lion’s share of touches. Seattle has no problem leaning on Charbonnet as their passing-down back, as DeeJay Dallas is simply a special-teamer now. If the rookie continues to run well on his limited touches then perhaps he nears a 50/50 split for rushing work down the stretch. The talent is clear from what we’ve seen thus far.
Tyjae Spears (RB, TEN) - 40% rostered
FAAB Bid: 5-8%
Aggressive Bid: 8-12%
Desperation Bid: 12-16%
Spears was Tennessee’s best RB on a day where Tampa’s formidable front shut down any north-south efforts. Derrick Henry only mustered 24 yards on 11 carries with -4 yards on his only catch. The shiftier Spears found space with 60 total yards on nine touches, with the 4-42-0 receiving line fueling much of it.
Henry not being traded does dampen the enthusiasm here as the 3-6 Titans must push hard to contend for the playoffs. Their chances will flow through Henry (and Spears) as they have a friendly RB schedule down the stretch, with two games against Houston, as well as facing Carolina and Indianapolis. If Henry is hurt for any of those games then Spears would be a fantastic plug-and-play.
Handcuff RBs I’d Be Sure Were Rostered:
Kenneth Gainwell (PHI, 26% rostered)
Elijah Mitchell (SF, 17%)
Rico Dowdle (DAL, 4%)
Trayveon Williams (CIN, 0%)
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
Demario Douglas (WR, NE) - 36% rostered
FAAB Bid: 8-12%
Aggressive Bid: 12-16%
Desperation Bid: 16-25%
Douglas was New England’s clear No. 1 receiver in Germany, totaling 84 yards on six catches (nine targets). The Pats will do everything they can to move the ball through their running backs and limit Mac Jones/Bailey Zappe’s responsibilities. That said, Douglas is the only Patriot who is a YAC threat after Kendrick Bourne’s ACL tear.
Those in PPR formats shouldn’t be afraid of Douglas as his role appears far more secure than the likes of JuJu Smith-Schuster (1-9-0, 1 target). New England is now out for their Week 11 bye but then they’ll feast on a reeling Giants squad. Their Week 13-17 games against the Chargers, Steelers, Chiefs, Broncos, and Bills will boast either a pass-happy gamescript or a poor defense able to be roasted.
Michael Wilson (WR, ARI) - 12% rostered
FAAB Bid: 6-8%
Aggressive Bid: 8-12%
Desperation Bid: 12-16%
Don’t let the 3-34-0 box score fool you, as Wilson came inches shy of a 3-35-1 line in Kyler Murray’s first game action of 2023. We’ll hope that Kyler’s increased comfort back on the field leads to more of his patented deep shots, which feeds into Wilson’s nearly 15.0 aDOT.
The Cards managed to win this one but should generally struggle to capture and hold leads, which plays into Wilson getting more attention down the stretch. They have a late Week 14 bye but then games against San Francisco, Chicago, and Philadelphia in the playoff weeks. Chicago remains vulnerable and both SF/PHI will demand plenty of passing. Rondale Moore is another viable add to eye up, especially in PPR formats.
Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC) - 29% rostered
FAAB Bid: 4-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-10%
Desperation Bid: 10-20%
On a day where Keenan Allen cleaned up (11-175-2), Johnston did snag his first NFL TD among four catches for 34 yards. He also drew a couple of lengthy DPI calls, one of which really should’ve turned into a massive 80-yard score. It only took the Chargers posting 38 points on 421 total yards to make the breakout happen!
We hope that this builds some confidence for QJ, as well as increases LAC’s understanding of how to utilize him. Everyone except Allen and Austin Ekeler are in tough spots, but Johnston did lead all LAC skill players with 61 snaps and his 35 routes run were there with Allen’s 36 and Jalen Guyton’s 35. A first-round rookie heating up during the stretch run is what legends are made from.
Noah Brown (WR, HOU) - 25% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-10%
Desperation Bid: 10-15%
I don’t know about y’all but streaming Brown over the last two weeks has given many of my teams life. Week 9 saw him pop with 6-153-1 as Robert Woods (side) was out, and then Week 10’s 7-172-0 line came with Nico Collins (toe) out.
Back-to-back 150-plus efforts have come in C.J. Stroud’s comeback wins to fuel his Rookie of the Year chances. Brown’s had the perfect storm these last couple of weeks with injuries and game conditions, but it’s difficult to see Houston relegating him to the bench after such performances. Just mind the low-floor risk when all are healthy.
Trenton Irwin (WR, CIN) - 8% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-8%
Irwin saw the field on roughly 80% of Cincinnati’s snaps in Week 10 as he largely stepped into Tee Higgins’ role. Higgins missed with a hamstring injury and has a strong chance of missing Week 11 as well since Cincy plays on Thursday. Irwin only had two receptions on Sunday but he made them count, racking up 54 yards and a touchdown.
Facing the Ravens in Week 11 isn’t an enviable spot to lock in for Thursday but those in deep leagues could do worse than a cheap avenue to Joe Burrow’s arm. PFF charted Irwin with 38 routes run on 52 snaps compared to Andrei Iosivas running 12 on 18 snaps. All we can do is hope the role holds in a gritty matchup on TNF.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Luke Musgrave (TE, GB) - 23% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-12%
Musgrave followed up scoring his first NFL TD in Week 9 by logging his best yardage tally (64) in Week 10. Naysayers will point to only two catches on four targets, but I see a big-play ceiling gaining momentum for a pair of stellar matchups (vs. LAC, at DET) over the next two weeks.
The Chargers got wrecked by Travis Kelce (12-179-1) in Week 7 and allowed Cole Kmet and Tyler Conklin to reach 70 yards in Weeks 8 and 9, respectively. If Musgrave were ever going to sniff a 100-yard explosion game, this is it!
Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT) - 36% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-8%
Those who can cast an eye beyond Week 11 and make future plans should be sure Freiermuth isn’t nearing full health while sitting on the wire. I realize Kenny Pickett did not take a leap forward in 2023 but we know ‘Muth is a giant red zone weapon and his joining Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and the RB duo at 100% does present a valuable weapon set.
Tyler Conklin (TE, NYJ) - 11% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-8%
Woe to those searching for stable output from a Jet that isn’t Garrett Wilson or Breece Hall, but Conklin’s median range and future matchups demand a slot here. He’s recorded 50 or more yards in five of his last seven games but has yet to find paydirt.
That’s the reality with Zach Wilson at the helm, as touchdown equity can be difficult to come by. But Conklin is clearly the No. 3 option here behind G. Wilson and Hall. And outside of a horrible Week 17 matchup against Cleveland’s lockdown defense, his rest-of-season schedule boasts five above-average TE matchups.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
Miami Dolphins Defense (vs. LV) - 40% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-7%
Desperation Bid: 7-10%
Las Vegas got an ego boost by dunking on a broken Giants team in Week 9, but they’ve failed to score 20 offensive points in any game outside of that. Miami has held opponents to 17 or fewer offensive points in four of their last five games, though may not boast prolific turnover totals (four INT, five FR).
This Dolphins team should put the Raiders in a deep hole with a cozy home-field advantage where they’re 4-0 with a +100 point differential. Hopefully, the bye week gave Miami plenty of time to plan for Davante Adams and how best to pressure Aidan O'Connell.
Detroit Lions Defense (vs. CHI) - 30% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-8%
As much as I enjoyed the Week 10 shootout against the Chargers, it means Detroit has given up 38 points in each of their last two games against real teams (sorry, Vegas). If the pass rush cannot consistently get there then the Lions remain vulnerable, but Chicago is not the team to exploit them.
The Bears have only surrendered five sacks across their last four games, but they enjoyed games against the Raiders and Panthers in that span. The Lions may not be firing on all cylinders but they’re closer to the Chargers team that held Chicago to 13 points with two interceptions. And New Orleans crushed them for five turnovers in Week 9. Detroit might hang 35 points on Chicago here and force all sorts of risky throws from Tyson Bagent.
Washington Commanders Defense (vs. NYG) - 21% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-3%
Desperation Bid: 3-5%
Washington may have sold off two key pass-rushers via trade but the Giants are simply lost. I do not love leaning on bad defenses to produce against bad offenses, for the record. The Giants will try to keep things close with their defense and 30 Saquon Barkley touches, but they have zero weapons outside of him.
If Jalin Hyatt (concussion) can’t go then Darius Slayton is the only one who remotely resembles a deep threat, if Tommy Devito would even have the green light to try such a throw. The Giants are already eight-point underdogs at most sportsbooks and I don’t see that improving over the week!
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