FAAB Waiver Wire Bidding - Fantasy Football Pickups to Target for Week 4

September 28, 2022

Nick Mariano's fantasy football waiver wire FAAB bidding guide for Week 4 (2022) -- how many FAAB dollars (free agent acquisition budget) to spend on waivers.

Week 3 brought more injury fallout than the first two weeks, but the waiver wire still feels relatively dry compared to previous seasons. Of course, that doesn't stop our mission of improving as best we can with the resources available. Nothing is guaranteed and now comes the time when end-of-bench stashes from the draft must be closely scrutinized.

Joining our famous waiver wire pickups list, our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, and our free new Who Should I Pickup? Waiver Wire comparison tool, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).

As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override. Here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 4.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks

Marcus Mariota (QB, ATL) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
22% rostered

Mariota hasn’t produced a “Wow” game yet but has 25 rushing attempts through three weeks, with two ground touchdowns mixed in. This helps offset the 3/3 TD/INT ratio through the air. 

I’d say things get easier with the Saints and Rams in the rearview mirror, but now he draws Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and San Francisco in the next three weeks. Having Kyle Pitts and Drake London is excellent and combines with Mariota’s legs to make him a weekly top-16 threat. If you prefer Jacoby Brissett on the other side of this Week 4 matchup, then he’s only 4% rostered.

Geno Smith (QB, SEA) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
9% rostered

Rashaad Penny backers will cringe but Seattle had Smith throw the ball 44 times in Week 3’s loss to the Falcons. To his credit, Geno completed 32 of those attempts for 325 yards and two scores. 

Sunday’s 50-point slugfest may serve as a preview of Smith’s Week 4 outlook against a Detroit team that pushes the action. After Smith didn’t eclipse 200 yards in either Weeks 1 or 2, streamers can now take solace in seeing the 300-plus playbook coming out.

Pete Carroll said the Seahawks would go with a more up-tempo offense in Week 3.

He wasn't lying. Seattle snapped the ball w/ 15 or more seconds on the game clock 47% of plays w/ game within 3 points.

They ran 69 plays after averaging 48 first two games.

Great news for fantasy.

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) September 26, 2022

Zach Wilson (QB, NYJ) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
6% rostered

Hate it or love it, Wilson is nearing a return from his preseason knee injury and will be the Jets’ starter when healthy. He’ll rejoin a team with an incredible arsenal of talent around him. If your league hoards QBs then make the proactive add before news of his return hits.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs

Khalil Herbert (RB, CHI) - FAAB Bid: 20-40%
49% rostered

Herbert is the widest-available of the three premier RB adds around the 50-60% rostered band (Herbert, Jamaal Williams at 60% rostered, and Alexander Mattison at 55%). I know, many of you will roll your eyes at the mere mention of these guys being available but the rostered data is the rostered data.

Herbert eviscerated the Texans for 169 total yards and two TDs on 22 touches, with a majority of damage coming after David Montgomery suffered an early ankle/knee injury. It was a banner day for late-round RB drafters as many best-ball squads hit the nitro.

That workload for Herbert mirrors his usage last season when Montgomery missed time (~23 opportunities per game). Chicago is calling Montgomery “day-to-day” as of now. Keep tabs on this, but even a limited Monty means plenty of work for Herbert in an offense that features barely any passing.

Samaje Perine (RB, CIN) - FAAB Bid: 5-8%
6% rostered

Perine averaged over five yards per carry on Sunday (9-47-0) while catching both of his targets for 14 yards and a TD. The 11 opportunities largely came late following Joe Mixon’s ankle injury, which signals Perine being our waiver target.

Bengals coach Zac Taylor said RB Joe Mixon's ankle was a little sore, hence the Samaje Perine insertion late in the game.

— Ben Baby (@Ben_Baby) September 25, 2022

Normally, I wouldn’t worry much about Mixon’s “sore ankle” as it is being vaguely reported, but Cincinnati has a short turnaround to host Miami on Thursday. Not only does this shorten Mixon’s recovery window, but it means whichever RB is featured should get some more passing work in a high-caliber matchup.

Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
9% rostered

Warren only had five touches in Week 3 but looked the better, quicker runner compared to Najee Harris. It was Warren with 30 yards on four carries (adding a three-yard reception) while Harris posted a 15-56-1 rushing line. Harris also lost a fumble and generated just five yards on three catches.

This isn’t some changing of the guard, but Warren should earn more opportunities moving forward. And we can’t forget Harris has an existing foot worry that hasn’t dissipated. Warren remains a solid stash in most formats, especially if the Kenny Pickett era starts soon.

Tyler Allgeier (RB, ATL) - FAAB Bid: 1-3%
15% rostered

Allgeier didn’t improve on Week 2’s 10-carry total in a Week 3 brawl that saw Cordarrelle Patterson run hot, but the rookie still had six carries for 25 yards and a five-yard catch. This is a longer play as we know the Falcons allegedly want to manage Patterson’s touch tally and Allgeier is working into the circle of trust.

If you simply don’t buy Allgeier being ready in 2022 then you can consider stashing Damien Williams (1% rostered). Williams opened Week 1 with a healthy split next to CPatt prior to the injury.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers

*At the top, we’re definitely adding Tyler Boyd (51% rostered) with the injuries for Cincinnati ahead of an explosive Miami matchup. Also, keep holding Treylon Burks (45% rostered) as his usage keeps climbing despite the poor box score.

Romeo Doubs (WR, GB) - FAAB Bid: 10-15%
25% rostered

Doubs led the Packers in routes run (34), targets (8), receptions (8), and receiving yards (73) alongside a touchdown in a No. 1 WR performance against Tampa Bay. He and Allen Lazard were the clear starters with Christian Watson out and Sammy Watkins on the IR.

We’ll know Doubs’ status as a true starter in short order next week with Watson likely back on the field. The Bucs matchup also halts the rushing duo and forces funnel passing, but there’s no doubting this as a plant-flag performance for Doubs. He’s a must-add WR with Aaron Rodgers seeking trustworthy passing options.

Romeo Doubs vs. Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis

4 targets, 4 catches 44 yards 1 TD

He wasn't beating scrubs. That's one of the best CB groups in the league.

— Peter Bukowski (@Peter_Bukowski) September 26, 2022

Zay Jones (WR, JAX) - FAAB Bid: 6-10%
Marvin Jones Jr. (WR, JAX) - FAAB Bid: 4-6%
10% & 5% rostered, respectively

On a day where all three starting wide receivers scored for Jacksonville, it was Zay Jones who led the corps in targets (11), receptions (10), and yards (85). He ran 32 routes but also had a carry, while MJJ ran 33 routes with seven targets and alpha Christian Kirk secured eight targets on 39 routes.

The Jags lean on three-wide sets with one tight end and one running back (11 personnel), which yields those high workloads across the board. Sorry, Travis Etienne squads. Jacksonville is firing on all cylinders and has a favorable schedule moving forward so don’t be a stranger.

Zay Jones has amassed 24 targets through 3 games and leads the Jaguars with 19 receptions.

Jones has had 15 career games with 8+ targets. In those games he's averaged:

-5.1 receptions
-56.3 receiving yards
-14.5 fantasy points per game pic.twitter.com/AfpNpDoFdP

— Moody (@EricNMoody) September 26, 2022

Michael Gallup (WR, DAL) - FAAB Bid: 6-8%
Noah Brown (WR, DAL) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
36% and 19% rostered, respectively

Gallup didn’t make his 2022 debut in Week 3 but should be ready come Week 4. You may not be winning matchups through Gallup in the next month but come playoff time when Dak Prescott is humming you’ll be happy you had this upside.

If you don’t buy Gallup’s long-term health off of the injury or simply need a Week 4 option then hold steady with Brown. With Gallup out or limited, Brown is the clear No. 2 and has caught at least five balls for over 50 yards in each of Dallas’ first three games. The trust and results are there!

Richie James (WR, NYG) - FAAB Bid: 6-8%
4% rostered

After impressing with 5-59-0 and 5-51-0 lines to open the 2022 season, James continued to operate as NYG’s No. 2 WR behind Sterling Shepard on Monday night. It only yielded a 4-36-0 line on five targets but he looks leagues ahead of David Sills V and a Monstar’d Kenny Golladay.

Now, the Giants’ passing attack is equivalent to a feather-tickling at the moment but James could be their No. 1 next week. Sterling Shepard had to be carted off after suffering a non-contact knee injury on their final offensive play in Week 3. It’s awful, but the fallout should lead to more volume for James.

Update: Shepard tore his ACL and is done for 2022. Bump up the James bids a touch if desperate for WR volume.

Jameson Williams (WR, DET) - FAAB Bid: 5-8%
25% rostered

While I enjoy seeing DJ Chark and Josh Reynolds be viable next to Amon-Ra St. Brown for a high-octane Detroit offense, do not forget that Williams joins them at some point. Don’t wait for positive news or a viral Twitter video from practice to get ahead of the curve on the speedster.

Greg Dortch (WR, ARI) - FAAB Bid: 5-8%
17% rostered

Dortch continues to smash with Rondale Moore out and is a must-play in any PPR format until Moore returns. He turned 10 targets into nine catches for 80 yards and now has 20 catches on 23 targets through three games. This reliability and performance may not simply fade when Moore is ready!

Another avenue exists as A.J. Green exited early with a knee injury. On paper, the perimeter position left Andy Isabella and Andre Baccellia filling in. However, if this cracks the door open for a three-wide set of Marquise Brown, Dortch, and Moore to emerge then I’m here with bells on. The Cardinals won’t win with defense and will generate passing volume, so keep Dortch close.

Mack Hollins (WR, LV) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
2% rostered

The Raiders had to press the gas pedal in a losing effort without Hunter Renfrow against Tennessee in Week 3. Hollins hinted at another gear with a 5-66-0 line on eight Week 2 targets before turning 10 targets into eight catches for 158 yards and a touchdown. He even completed a four-yard pass!

Hollins and the Raiders will have a tall task against Denver’s stout defense in Week 4 before traveling to Arrowhead in KC for Week 5 before an early Week 6 bye. With the Raiders at 0-3 and often fighting for points, look for Hollins to be a decent dart throw most weeks even after Renfrow returns.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends

Hayden Hurst (TE, CIN) - FAAB Bid: 2-3%
22% rostered

Hurst’s poor Week 3 can be attributed to a groin injury limiting his workload, with him barely playing in the second half as the game was in hand. We’ve mentioned Cincy’s upcoming matchup against Miami’s potent offense a couple of times. All available hands will need to be on deck,

If anyone drops Hurst in your league after the one-catch dud this past weekend then step in and capitalize. Write off the injury here and remember:

Hayden Hurst through 2 weeks:
* 82% route rate
* 17% target share

That's TE1-level usage. Should be owned in fantasy leagues of 12+ teams.

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) September 20, 2022

Tyler Conklin (TE, NYJ) - FAAB Bid: 2-3%
21% rostered

Conklin continued his usage warpath on a scrappy Jets team, playing on 67-of-78 snaps with 44 routes run and eight targets. To see this continue even with C.J. Uzomah active (he had one five-yard catch) is extremely encouraging.

I saw a note from PFF’s Nathan Jahnke that Conklin leads all tight ends with 131 routes run. Conklin is very involved alongside the elite young wideouts and Breece Hall on a Jets team that is constantly dogfighting for points. Stay tuned regarding how Zach Wilson’s re-entry affects NYJ’s approach.

Robert Tonyan (TE, GB) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
29% rostered

Tonyan benefitted from the rush of Green Bay injuries but Week 3 still continued an upward tick in involvement. After playing 22 snaps in Week 1 and 27 in Week 2, Tonyan went up to 36 snaps in Week 3. And 22 of these were passing plays, with 60% of those coming out of the slot per PFF.

Overall, he only turned seven targets into 37 yards on six catches. It was a gritty game. Perhaps we hit a ceiling early in 2022 and Tonyan never recovers that consistent top-12 upside. But for as long as the usage is increasing, I’ll be keeping my eye on him.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams

Indianapolis Colts Defense (vs. TEN) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
35% rostered

The Colts rebounded from an embarrassing 24-0 loss to Jacksonville with a victory over the Chiefs. This was Indy’s home opener and they held Patrick Mahomes and company to just 17 points with two turnovers generated.

The big idea here is that the Colts play a strong rushing defense ahead of a date with Tennessee’s ground-focused offense. You could also hold onto the Colts for a Week 5 road match with the Broncos, who can barely cook a Pop Tart under Nathaniel Hackett.

Miami Dolphins Defense (at CIN) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
15% rostered

We discussed that the Bengals may be missing Joe Mixon on the short week, but they may also be without Tee Higgins. Combine that with an offensive line that struggles to protect Joe Burrow in a game where Miami’s electric offense can force Cincy into risk-taking late. That’s a solid stream environment for me! Oh, and Miami faces the Jets in Week 5.

Minnesota Vikings Defense (at NO) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
19% rostered

The Vikings head to London to face New Orleans in an early international adventure against a struggling offense. Minnesota held Green Bay to seven points in Week 1 before holding strong Philadelphia and Detroit offenses to 24 points apiece in Weeks 2 and 3.

They have four takeaways and seven sacks through three games as the aggressive, turnover-prone Jameis Winston steps in. The Saints have surrendered 11 sacks and nine turnovers themselves, as well as two defensive TDs. And looking forward, the Vikings face the Bears in Week 5.

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