RADIO
We meet again, RotoBallers. With 12 weeks behind us, most of you still reading are either in win-at-all-costs mode or planning ahead for the playoffs. Let's deal with the immediate needs first, shall we? As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB). Let's get there with the best roster possible!
As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.
It's difficult to toe the line between appropriate action and overreaction, but following context-aware volume is typically the best strategy. Monitor the injury reports and always err on the side of high-ceiling stashes for the end of your bench if bye weeks allow it. Whatever your needs, here's my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 13.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
Taysom Hill (QB, NO) - FAAB Bid: 4-6%
6% rostered
Hill is reportedly taking first-team snaps and preparing to start in Week 13 after missing Week 12 with a foot injury. The Trevor Siemian band-aid is being ripped off and now Hill’s dual-threat abilities can be unleashed. Ideally, that comes with the return of some firepower in Alvin Kamara and/or Mark Ingram II as well. Their Thursday game brings on an aggressive Dallas defense that just got tagged for 36 points by the Raiders.
Sources: The #Saints appear poised to make a QB change. Taysom Hill is taking first-team reps this week in practice in preparation to face the #Cowboys. Trevor Siemian is taking No. 2 reps.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 29, 2021
Justin Fields (QB, CHI) - FAAB Bid: 2-3%
21% rostered
While we await Fields’ progression from the rib injury, he should be a proactive add after the injury eclipsed the evolution we saw from his game in Weeks 8-9. Prior to the bye, Fields showed more aggression in running and pushing the ball downfield with his arm for a pair of top-12 weekly finishes. If he can go against Arizona at home in Week 13, he should have another solid chance at that finish. But he also gets Green Bay, Minnesota, Seattle, and the Giants to wrap up our fantasy season for some promising matchups.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Alexander Mattison (RB, MIN) - FAAB Bid: 75-100%
50% rostered
I know, he’s above the usual threshold but I just have to quickly say that Cook’s injury means you throw the wallet at Mattison. You don’t need me for anything special here. Just make the add if you can. They’re hoping Cook is back after two weeks but I also hoped my first-round pick would stay healthy. Things don’t always shake out the way we hoped, so let’s prepare for all outcomes.
Vikings’ RB Dalvin Cook (shoulder) is expected to miss at least the next two games - Sunday at Detroit and the following Thursday against Pittsburgh - with the hope being that he can return the next week for the Monday night Dec. 20 game at Chicago, per source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 30, 2021
Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR) - FAAB Bid: 50-75%
Ameer Abdullah (RB, CAR) - FAAB Bid: 20-30%
40% rostered & 1% rostered
Unfortunately, Christian McCaffrey's 2021 season is over due to an ankle injury suffered on Sunday. They're shutting him down and that means Hubbard and Abdullah will step into Carolina's spotlight. When CMC missed time earlier, Hubbard was more of a workhorse back, but Abdullah ran a healthy 21 routes out of the backfield with Carolina trailing often in Week 12. They didn't have a 1B option like that before to reliably spell Hubbard. While you still want Chuba for the precious goal-line looks, don't overlook Abdullah in PPR formats. Especially if Cam Newton plays as he did on Sunday, the Panthers could find themselves trailing often without their biggest offensive threat suiting up.
Jamaal Williams (RB, DET) - FAAB Bid: 40-50%
39% rostered
D'Andre Swift’s shoulder injury on Thanksgiving forced Williams into the complete starting role, which resulted in 83 total yards on 20 touches (five catches). This paints him as a back-end RB2 for a divisional showdown with Minnesota’s porous front in Week 13 should Swift not be ready to return. I don't have high hopes for fireworks here, but the volume along in any PPR format thrusts him into my top-24 RBs on the week. Elijah Mitchell just had five catches against Minnesota while A.J. Dillon secured six receptions the week before.
Boston Scott (RB, PHI) - FAAB Bid: 30-40%
19% rostered
With Jordan Howard out, Scott was already working alongside Miles Sanders in what should’ve been a plus matchup versus the Giants. But then Sanders limped off the field early in the third quarter with an ankle injury and was largely a non-factor for the rest of the game, which left Scott with 17 touches for 72 yards and a score. The Eagles face the horrid Jets’ rushing D next week, making Scott a priority add going into Week 13.
Dontrell Hilliard (RB, TEN) - FAAB Bid: 10-12%
29% rostered
Hilliard and D'Onta Foreman had an even split on snaps, but Hilliard balled out with 131 yards and a long TD on 12 carries alongside the edge in routes run (15 to 9). I don’t want to get terribly aggressive as their bye week gives Jeremy McNichols a chance to eat into Hilliard’s passing edge, with Foreman still the bigger guy for goal-line work. But he’s more than just a waiver afterthought given the strong showing here.
Matt Breida (RB, BUF) - FAAB Bid: 12-15%
23% rostered
Breida’s strong form in Weeks 10-11 proved enough to push Zack Moss into being a healthy scratch on Thanksgiving. Even with Devin Singletary handling more work (15 carries to Breida’s nine), Breida took a screen to the house for a 23-yard TD. He’s a versatile back with plenty of burst that also has 105 rushing yards on just 17 carries in Buffalo’s last three games. Look for the momentum to continue growing in Week 13 versus New England.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
Kendrick Bourne (WR, NE) - FAAB Bid: 6-10%
23% rostered
Bourne turned in his first game with multiple TDs in a Patriots uniform on Sunday, racking up 61 yards on five catches (six targets). This marks his first game of more than four catches since Week 4. But boy, he earned the result with a leaping grab for TD No. 1 before taking a short crosser to the house with a tightrope act down the sideline. He has a slight leg up on Nelson Agholor for usage behind Jakobi Meyers, but there’s room for success here with neither Hunter Henry nor Jonnu Smith making waves.
Mac Jones & Kendrick Bourne (41-yd TD)
On 3rd & 6 from the TEN 41, Bourne takes a crossing route to the house, gaining 36 yards after catch, +29 more YAC than expected. What were the odds of Bourne scoring on the play?
🔹 TD Probability: 0.3%#StatThat | Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/aXY0Pv8KRA
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 28, 2021
Russell Gage (WR, ATL) - FAAB Bid: 5-8%
17% rostered
Gage took advantage of a great matchup against Jacksonville by bringing in six catches for 62 yards and his second TD of 2021. I know the two goose eggs in Weeks 8 and 10 burned something fierce, but he’s seen at least six looks in the other four games since the Week 6 bye with 60-plus yards in three of those. Kyle Pitts continues to absorb the spotlight while Cordarrelle Patterson now forces those safeties to come down again, leaving Gage with a strong range of outcomes against Tampa Bay’s shaky secondary in Week 13.
Josh Reynolds (WR, DET) - FAAB Bid: 4-6%
1% rostered
In his second game for Detroit, Reynolds made a splash with a 39-yard TD that came from a nifty double move. He wound up with 70 yards on three catches, but nobody topped five targets on a gritty day where Jared Goff didn’t push downfield often. However, Detroit won’t draw Andy Dalton each week and Kirk Cousins should press them for more action in Week 13. Reynolds would also absorb some upside with D’Andre Swift likely out next week.
Jauan Jennings, (WR, SF) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
0% rostered
Jennings caught two-of-three targets for 24 yards and a touchdown, with the wideout missing a second score by mere inches. The door is open for Week 13’s game against Seattle as Deebo Samuel is set to miss 1-2 weeks with a groin injury. The Niners may lean even more on their ground game, but Jennings (or even Trent Sherfield) will get more run next to Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle if the Seahawks can put up a fight.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI) - FAAB Bid: 3-6%
24% rostered
Let’s just throw away that stink bomb of a Week 11 that saw Fields get injured and the Bears hibernate for the game. Kmet popped on Thanksgiving with a season-high eight catches on 11 targets for 65 yards. It was Jimmy Graham who got the touchdown on a seam route from Andy Dalton but Kmet looks fantastic out there. He has a tremendous amount of volume for a TE with an average of seven looks per game over the last month. Don't let the Graham TD obscure the overall picture.
Routes run by Bears TEs yesterday. On 45 Andy Dalton dropbacks:
Cole Kmet 38
Jesse James 7
Jimmy Graham 4
JP Holtz 0— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 26, 2021
Jack Doyle (TE, IND) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
1% rostered
Adding Doyle will feel like chasing yesterday’s points that came primarily due to the shootout with Tampa Bay, but the bar at TE remains low when you hit the 12th or 14th best option. He doesn’t generate much volume due to the amount of run-blocking demanded by this offense, but Doyle is at least ahead of Mo Alie-Cox once again ahead of a soft Houston matchup. Perhaps Jonathan Taylor will just cruise for 200 yards and three touchdowns, but Doyle has a fine chance at a sneaky playaction tuddy if you’re desperate.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
Minnesota Vikings Defense (at DET) - FAAB Bid: 3-6%
17% rostered
The Vikings draw a Detroit squad likely missing its premier playmaker in D’Andre Swift, which is enough for me! Okay, I know Minny has given up over 30 points in three of their last four, but the Lions are not the Ravens, Packers, or 49ers. Even with their problems, the Vikings have recorded multiple sacks in all 11 games thus far. Don’t turn your nose up at the matchup.
New York Giants Defense (at MIA) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
2% rostered
Outside of facing Tom Brady in Week 11, the Giants have held four of their last five opponents to 20 or fewer points. That includes Patrick Mahomes! They’ve forced a whopping 10 turnovers in their last four games and smothered Jalen Hurts into nothingness this past weekend. While the Dolphins have improved with Tua Tagovailoa becoming extremely efficient, this defense should press for the quick throws and force some longer dropbacks that yield pressure-driven mistakes.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense (vs. DEN) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
26% rostered
The early-season woes have given way to hope for KC’s defense. They’ve only surrendered over 17 points just once in their last six games, holding premier offenses in Green Bay and Dallas to a combined 16 points. Coming off a season-high five sacks in Week 11, the Chiefs will look to stay hot at home against a hobbled Teddy Bridgewater that may not be that evasive.
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